LIVE from Detroit ... the 2024 Official NFL Draft Thread (April 25-27) 6PM EST, ABC/ESPN/NFL Network

[Supa]

Funny you say that. Pitts definitely hasnt merit #4 pick status, but I don’t think you can underscore how much of an offensive terrorist Arthur smith is. He legit had Pitts and Jonnu smith split targe

Also fun fact w/Pitts, Pitts actually has been a historic TE.

1 of only 2 rookie TE’s over 1000 yards. And he has a career 13.8 ypc. That would qualify for 2nd all time to Gronk’s 15. He’s considerably ahead of the next guys Jared cook () at 13.1, Vernon Davis at 13…then peep the remaining order: Kelce, Kellen Winslow, Gates, Sharpe, Newsome, Graham, Olsen, Gonzalez

So with a legit QB for the first time Pitts may actually be what he was billed as. Now Top 5 on a TE hell no but around 10 isn’t too bad if you can afford the luxury

A TE should never be drafted in the top 5. Go look at where Kelce and those other guys you listed were taken. Wasn't Gates undrafted? 4 was way too high especially when Micah was in the same draft.

A TE in the 1st better mean you're set at other positions and can afford to make a luxury pick.

Only exception might be the Colts at 15. The top 3 WR's will be gone so it could make sense for them to help Richardson. They would probably get more impact from a CB but Pittman, Downs, and Bowers along with JT could be a problem. They could possibly get back in the first for a CB if Kool Aid or Dejean slip.

 

[BaggerofTea]

No reason for the bears to overcomplicate this, take Williams at 1 and start winning playoff games

 

[O.iatlhawksfan]

A TE should never be drafted in the top 5. Go look at where Kelce and those other guys you listed were taken. Wasn't Gates undrafted? 4 was way too high especially when Micah was in the same draft.

A TE in the 1st better mean you're set at other positions and can afford to make a luxury pick.

Only exception might be the Colts at 15. The top 3 WR's will be gone so it could make sense for them to help Richardson. They would probably get more impact from a CB but Pittman, Downs, and Bowers along with JT could be a problem. They could possibly get back in the first for a CB if Kool Aid or Dejean slip.

Drafting TE in the 1st just shows the world your don’t know wtf you are doing

 

[Supa]

Drafting TE in the 1st just shows the world your don’t know wtf you are doing

I wouldn't do it if I was GM

• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
  No. 4 overall, 2021
• T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
  No. 8, 2019
• Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
  No. 20, 2019
• Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens
  No. 25, 2018
• O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  No. 19, 2017
• Evan Engram, New York Giants
  No. 23, 2017
• David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
  No. 29, 2017
• Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
  No. 10, 2014
• Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
  No. 21, 2013
• Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
  No. 21, 2010
• Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
  No. 20, 2009
• Dustin Keller, New York Jets
  No. 30, 2008
• Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
  No. 31, 2007
• Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
  No. 6, 2006
• Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
  No. 28, 2006
• Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
  No. 30, 2005
• Kellen Winslow II, Cleveland Browns
  No. 6, 2004
• Ben Watson, New England Patriots
  No. 32, 2004
• Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts
  No. 24, 2003
• Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants
  No. 14, 2002
• Daniel Graham, New England Patriots
  No. 21, 2002
• Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks
  No. 28, 2002
• Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens
  No. 31, 2001
• Bubba Franks, Green Bay Packers
  No. 14, 2000
• Anthony Becht, New York Jets
  No. 27, 2000

 

[DropTopDoc]

 

[Th3G3ntleman]

That's facts. I mean Puka Nacua was a 5th round pick last year.

Everyone likes to critique if any of these QB's can beat what Stroud did this year, but you can flip that and ask if any of these top 10 WR's beat what Puka did last year? Like if the Chargers draft a WR, there is nearly no excuse that guy should ball out right?

I agree too that some teams have a significant amount of holes (Chargers) that taking 1 WR or even a pair of rookies to cover for losing Keenan, Mike Williams, etc. seems like a stretch. That's just a lot of veteran nuance and leadership people think will be easy to replace.

I'm wondering how big the gap will be in terms of production vs draft position.

Rashee Rice went 79-938-7 as a rookie. His numbers were in the same range as Zay Flowers and Addison who went in the 1st and Mar Olave and Garrett the year before.

MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze need to get 100-1500-10 to separate themselves and justify a top 10 pick.

A team like the Giants that has other needs should probably look to build the O line and get WR help later. If you can move down and get an additional 2nd or high 3rd you can grab 2 very good WR's.



He's hiding that he's really 5' 7", can't catch, and runs a 4.95

Seriously, he has years of tape. There's absolutely nothing he can show them at pro day good or bad. They know everything they need to know.

No they don't what a silly position. You don't justify your draft selection with your rookie year performance. That is some goofy hot take artist type bullshyt.

 

[Supa]

No they don't what a silly position. You don't justify your draft selection with your rookie year performance. That is some goofy hot take artist type bullshyt.

That's not what I was saying.

If the second round WR's are getting similar numbers as top 10 selections as rookies the top 10 selections will have to separate themselves by year 2-3 and put up elite numbers. I wasn't talking about elite numbers as a rookie.

You don't draft that high for just a good player so I'm asking if you need an elite, top 5, Hall of Fame bound WR when you don't have other pieces. That's why I mentioned the Giants who need O line help. Is Nabers a better asset than Joe Alt? Are you better off with very good 1000-1200 yards WR's or a 1500 yards WR who will eventually cost you $30 million?

 

[IIVI]

No they don't what a silly position. You don't justify your draft selection with your rookie year performance. That is some goofy hot take artist type bullshyt.

That's not what I was saying.

If the second round WR's are getting similar numbers as top 10 selections as rookies the top 10 selections will have to separate themselves by year 2-3 and put up elite numbers. I wasn't talking about elite numbers as a rookie.

You don't draft that high for just a good player so I'm asking if you need an elite, top 5, Hall of Fame bound WR when you don't have other pieces. That's why I mentioned the Giants who need O line help. Is Nabers a better asset than Joe Alt? Are you better off with very good 1000-1200 yards WR's or a 1500 yards WR who will eventually cost you $30 million?

A lot of these WR's base their next contract on where they get drafted even if the return has been kinda mid. GM's and fans still fall for that. The funny thing is a 2nd round WR who's been balling out most cats won't even remember them being a 2nd round pick.

That guy you draft top 5 better be the man or your team should've traded down for more chances at getting great players. Especially with the way defenses have got lighter, cats are going to be trying to maul with bigger interior OL play: KC and Detroit showed how vital this was.

Only one WR this free agency got more money than four of the guards so you don't want to pass up one or multiple elite OL talent for a skill position who's production can be replicable by some later round players. However, if you look at the rate of pro-bowls and super bowl championships won, the offensive line talent on the teams were overwhelmingly drafted in the first and 2nd rounds. So yeah, that first round WR better be worth it and a franchise changer if you're picking them in the top 10 if you're passing up on OL early or the chance at a trade down.

 

[threattonature]

A lot of these WR's base their next contract on where they get drafted even if the return has been kinda mid. GM's and fans still fall for that. The funny thing is a 2nd round WR who's been balling out most cats won't even remember them being a 2nd round pick.

That guy you draft top 5 better be the man or your team should've traded down for more chances at getting great players. Especially with the way defenses have got lighter, cats are going to be trying to maul with bigger interior OL play: KC and Detroit showed how vital this was.

Only one WR this free agency got more money than four of the guards so you don't want to pass up one or multiple elite OL talent for a skill position who's production can be replicable by some later round players. However, if you look at the rate of pro-bowls and super bowl championships won, the offensive line talent on the teams were overwhelmingly drafted in the first and 2nd rounds. So yeah, that first round WR better be worth it and a franchise changer if you're picking them in the top 10 if you're passing up on OL early or the chance at a trade down.

The thing is a lot of good linemen come out of the later rounds and isn't necessarily an easy position to pick. I mean the Chiefs entire offensive line was all late second round picks or worse. Also using this WR free agency is not a good example as even coming into the offseason it was looked at as a garbage free agency class for the position so it's not shocking that they got less money than the guards. Over the last few years WRs were getting huge money.

Basically IMO it's crazy to pass on a great player because you are afraid of perception. The draft is a crap shoot. Same way Detroit got killed for the Gibbs pick and it worked out great for them. It's easy to say trade back and try to draft your guy later but you never know if other teams have the same guy rated high or if you settle for the second best at the position that second best may turn out to be a bust.

 

[IIVI]

The thing is a lot of good linemen come out of the later rounds and isn't necessarily an easy position to pick. I mean the Chiefs entire offensive line was all late second round picks or worse. Also using this WR free agency is not a good example as even coming into the offseason it was looked at as a garbage free agency class for the position so it's not shocking that they got less money than the guards. Over the last few years WRs were getting huge money.

Basically IMO it's crazy to pass on a great player because you are afraid of perception. The draft is a crap shoot. Same way Detroit got killed for the Gibbs pick and it worked out great for them. It's easy to say trade back and try to draft your guy later but you never know if other teams have the same guy rated high or if you settle for the second best at the position that second best may turn out to be a bust.

Yeah no doubt, the Chiefs are such an exception to the rule though. I think because of Mahomes and Andy Reid they can break some rules.

As you said though it's all a crapshoot so I think all we're saying is that the player you get better be the guy vs passing on more chances. So I really don't think it's a perception thing. Trade down strategically may mean a higher/better pick next year like the Bears did as well. If a team pays high for a prospect and you predict the team to be even worse next year even with that prospect, that's a W. Like Marvin Harrison Jr. I think can be the guy and has been hyped as a generational prospect for it. However, someone like Nabers (who I think is a top-10 talent as well) I think you can pull highway robbery with. I can definitely see some team trading up for Nabers, ending up worse next year and start having buyer's remorse for example.

 

[Piff Perkins]

The thing is a lot of good linemen come out of the later rounds and isn't necessarily an easy position to pick. I mean the Chiefs entire offensive line was all late second round picks or worse. Also using this WR free agency is not a good example as even coming into the offseason it was looked at as a garbage free agency class for the position so it's not shocking that they got less money than the guards. Over the last few years WRs were getting huge money.

Basically IMO it's crazy to pass on a great player because you are afraid of perception. The draft is a crap shoot. Same way Detroit got killed for the Gibbs pick and it worked out great for them. It's easy to say trade back and try to draft your guy later but you never know if other teams have the same guy rated high or if you settle for the second best at the position that second best may turn out to be a bust.

O-line is hard to pick but another key factor is o-line coaching. Your o-line coach is one of the most important coaches in the building, he can make or break a franchise. Looking again at the divisional round teams (KC/SF/BAL/DET) all of them have heavy resources on the o-line and great coaching there. Hell, Andy Reid used to be an o-line coach.

As a Lions fan I feel like the Gibbs pick demonstrated something that a lot of analysts get wrong. Sure you want to bolster the trenches. But if your trenches are set - in this case offensive line - and you have the opportunity to get an elite weapon that relies on the strength of your trenches? Go get it. That's why Gibbs made sense. If KC takes a receiver in the first round next month it'll make sense too. You should want elite players on your team. Now would I draft an elite RB in the 1st round if my o-line was trash? No. You're basically wasting a year of the rookie contract for nothing. CMC and Gibbs balled out in the playoffs and made it clear that getting those weapons on top of a great o-line can take you to another level.

 

[threattonature]

Yeah no doubt, the Chiefs are such an exception to the rule though. I think because of Mahomes and Andy Reid they can break some rules.

As you said though it's all a crapshoot so I think all we're saying is that the player you get better be the guy vs passing on more chances. So I really don't think it's a perception thing. Trade down strategically may mean a higher/better pick next year like the Bears did as well. If a team pays high for a prospect and you predict the team to be even worse next year even with that prospect, that's a W. Like Marvin Harrison Jr. I think can be the guy and has been hyped as a generational prospect for it. However, someone like Nabers (who I think is a top-10 talent as well) I think you can pull highway robbery on. I can definitely see some team trading up for Nabers and ending up worse next year and start having buyer's remorse for example.

I think that's part of hot take culture though too. Everyone is quick to judge moves based off immediate impact. Some players take a few years to develop. Some need a coaching change or coordinator change to shine through. Some of these guys are drafted off potential and need years to turn around.

I mean shyt my Chiefs are the best example. People killed them (including me) for trading up to get Mahomes knowing he wasn't going to play the next year. I thought they should trade for a player that can help them immediately considering they were already a borderline contender. Instead they drafted a foundational piece for the future. Judging after one year it looked like a dumb move and didn't help them the next year.

I do feel what you saying though. Trading up and going crazy for a guy you love can turn into Mahomes or bomb like Trubiski or Lance. It is an inexact science. Almost similar to the decision to pay stars on your team or trading them away for picks.

 

[threattonature]

O-line is hard to pick but another key factor is o-line coaching. Your o-line coach is one of the most important coaches in the building, he can make or break a franchise. Looking again at the divisional round teams (KC/SF/BAL/DET) all of them have heavy resources on the o-line and great coaching there. Hel, Andy Reid used to be an o-line coach.

As a Lions fan I feel like the Gibbs pick demonstrated something that a lot of analysts get wrong. Sure you want to bolster the trenches. But if your trenches are set - in this case offensive line - and you have the opportunity to get an elite weapon that relies on the strength of your trenches? Go get it. That's why Gibbs made sense. If KC takes a receiver in the first round next month it'll make sense too. You should want elite players on your team. Now would I draft an elite RB in the 1st round if my o-line was trash? No. You're basically wasting a year of the rookie contract for nothing. CMC and Gibbs balled out in the playoffs and made it clear that getting those weapons on top of a great o-line can take you to another level.

I love this. Basically that there should almost be an order to team building. Having a great O-line makes things easy on the rest of the offense. Same way if I'm drafting a franchise QB I'm using the savings on the QB to build up the o-line to at least give them that extra bit of time to process.

 

[IIVI]

I think that's part of hot take culture though too. Everyone is quick to judge moves based off immediate impact. Some players take a few years to develop. Some need a coaching change or coordinator change to shine through. Some of these guys are drafted off potential and need years to turn around.

I mean shyt my Chiefs are the best example. People killed them (including me) for trading up to get Mahomes knowing he wasn't going to play the next year. I thought they should trade for a player that can help them immediately considering they were already a borderline contender. Instead they drafted a foundational piece for the future. Judging after one year it looked like a dumb move and didn't help them the next year.

I do feel what you saying though. Trading up and going crazy for a guy you love can turn into Mahomes or bomb like Trubiski or Lance. It is an inexact science. Almost similar to the decision to pay stars on your team or trading them away for picks.

Yeah that facts.

I guess really at the end it just comes down to "Given a situation some players will thrive, some players will bust." Time will always tell

These are essentially just complicated situations with so many factors. You can build a team of all-worlders and one bad decision (hiring Norv Turner as HC) can basically destroy it.

 

[WesCrook]

People are making too much of a deal with the weather in Chicago.

The weather doesn't really get bad until mid December, and at that point how many home games will be left on the schedule? 2? 3?

Also, it's not a given that the weather will indeed be bad on that particular day.