López Obrador, an Atypical Leftist, Wins Mexico Presidency in Landslide; Takes Office on December 1

Ya' Cousin Cleon

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MEXICO CITY — Riding a wave of populist anger fueled by rampant corruption and violence, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected president of Mexico on Sunday, in a landslide victory that upended the nation’s political establishment and handed him a sweeping mandate to reshape the country.

Mr. López Obrador’s victory puts a leftist leader at the helm of Latin America’s second-largest economy for the first time in decades, a prospect that has filled millions of Mexicans with hope — and the nation’s elites with trepidation.

The outcome represents a clear rejection of the status quo in the nation, which for the last quarter century has been defined by a centrist vision and an embrace of globalization that many Mexicans feel has not served them.

The core promises of Mr. López Obrador’s campaign — to end corruption, reduce violence and address Mexico’s endemic poverty — were immensely popular with voters, but they come with questions he and his new government may struggle to answer.

How he will pay for his ambitious slate of social programs without overspending and harming the economy? How will he rid the government of bad actors when some of those same people were a part of his campaign? Can he make a dent in the unyielding violence of the drug war, which left Mexico with more homicides last year than any time in the last two decades?

And how will Mr. López Obrador, a firebrand with a tendency to dismiss his critics in the media and elsewhere, govern?

In the end, the nation’s desire for change outweighed any of the misgivings the candidate inspired.

“It is time for a change, it’s time to go with López Obrador, and see what happens,” said Juan de Dios Rodríguez, 70, a farmer in the state of Hidalgo, a longtime bastion of the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which has dominated politics in Mexico for nearly his entire life. “This will be my first time voting for a different party.”

In his third bid for the presidency, Mr. López Obrador, 64, won in what authorities called the largest election in Mexican history, with some 3,400 federal, state and local races contested in all.

He won by capturing more than half the vote, according to early returns, more than any candidate since the nation began its transition to democracy nearly 20 years ago. In a reflection of the lopsided vote, his main competitors conceded the race within 45 minutes of the polls’ closing, another historical first.

With his coalition partners, it is likely that he will hold a majority in Congress, potentially giving him more power to enact his policies.

In his acceptance speech Sunday night in Mexico City, Mr. López Obrador sought to unite an electorate polarized over his election, and promised to look out for all citizens — with the poor being first among them.

“I call on all Mexicans to reconciliation, and to put above their personal interests, however legitimate, the greater interest, the general interest,” he said. “The state will cease to be a committee at the service of a minority and will represent all Mexicans, rich and poor, those who live in the country and in the city, migrants, believers and nonbelievers, to people of all philosophies and sexual preferences.”

A global repudiation of the establishment has brought populist leaders to power in the United States and Europe, and conservative ones to several countries in Latin America, including Colombia after an election last month.

“The recent elections in Latin America have exhibited the same demand for change,” said Laura Chinchilla, the former president of Costa Rica. “The results are not endorsements of ideologies, but rather demands for change, a fatigue felt by people waiting for answers that simply have not arrived.”

Mr. López Obrador, who vowed to cut his own salary and raise those of the lowest paid government workers, campaigned on a narrative of social change, including increased pensions for the elderly, educational grants for Mexico’s youth and additional support for farmers.

He said he would fund his programs with the money the nation saves by eliminating corruption, a figure he places at tens of billions of dollars a year, a windfall some experts doubt will materialize.

Realistic or not, the allure of his message is steeped in the language of nostalgia for a better time — and in a sense of economic nationalism that some fear could reverse important gains of the last 25 years.

In this way, and others, the parallels between Mr. López Obrador and President Trump are hard to ignore. Both men are tempestuous leaders, who are loath to concede a political fight. Both men lash out at enemies, and view the media with suspicion.

On Sunday night Mr. Trump posted a tweet congratulating Mr. López Obrador.

Even as the electoral rage propelling Mr. López Obrador’s rise is largely the result of domestic issues, there will be pressure for the new president to take a less conciliatory line with his American counterpart. Mexico’s current government, led by President Enrique Peña Nieto, has suffered a string of humiliations at the hands of Mr. Trump with relative silence.

But Mr. López Obrador is not the typical Latin American populist, nor does his branding as a leftist convey the complexity of his ethos.


In building his third candidacy for the presidency, he cobbled together an odd group of allies, some with contradictory visions. There are leftists, unions, far-right conservatives and support from religious groups. How he will manage these competing interests remains to be seen.

There is some evidence that Mr. López Obrador knows what is at stake. Though political rivals have painted him as a radical on par with Hugo Chavez, the former socialist leader of Venezuela, Mexico’s president-elect has vowed not to raise the national debt and to maintain close relations with the United States.

Mr. López Obrador, who is commonly referred to by his initials, AMLO, has a history of working with the private sector, and has appointed a respected representative to handle negotiations the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Today AMLO is a much more moderate, centrist politician who will govern the business community with the right hand, and the social sectors and programs with the left,” said Antonio Sola, who created the effective fear campaign that branded Mr. López Obrador as a danger to Mexico in the 2006 election he lost.

For his opponents, this election cycle has brought the three main parties of Mexico to a crisis point. Mr. Peña Nieto’s party will be vastly reduced in size and power in the new Congress, while the leftist Party of Democratic Revolution may not even survive.

Perhaps the only party with enough power to serve as a counterweight will be the National Action Party, despite having endured a bruising split in the campaign.

On the issue of fighting graft, perhaps the signature element of his campaign, few believe that it will be easy to address the complex realities of systemic corruption.

That could set up Mr. López Obrador to be a continuation of the disappointment that so many voters are reacting to.

“The biggest problem I see are the expectations he has built,” said Carlos Illades, a professor of social sciences at the Autonomous Metropolitan University and a historian of Mexico’s left. “The problem is going to be what he is not able to do. There are people who are expecting a lot.”
 

HarlemHottie

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I was just reading the TLR thread about this guy, but since I can't post over there, I'll ask here. He was accused of telling his people to flood the border. Politifact gave that story a pants on fire rating and showed his real quote. Nikkas was all "AHA! Fake news!", but I don't really see the difference between what he was accused of saying and what he actually said. Can someone explain this to me?

What he was accused of saying

A Mexican presidential candidate has called upon his fellow countryman to flood the United States with a mass exodus, calling it a "human right."

According to a report from Eluniversal, candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) said the people should flee Mexico to find a life in the United States...

"And soon, very soon — after the victory of our movement — we will defend all the migrants in the American continent and all the migrants in the world," Obrador said on Tuesday while calling on people to "leave their towns and find a life in the United States."

This fleeing to the United States would be "a human right we will defend."

vs

Politifact cleaning it up

"Soon, very soon, after the victory of our movement, we will defend migrants all over the American continent and the migrants of the world who, by necessity, must abandon their towns to find life in the United States; it’s a human right we will defend."

López Obrador is not telling anyone to flood the border, but saying that he will defend those who find themselves with no other option but to relocate to the United States...

he urged current Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto to complete the following three actions:

  • Send a diplomatic note in protest of the Trump’s administration’s policies to the United States;

  • Solicit the urgent intervention of the United Nations commissioner for human rights; and,

  • Send a team of lawyers, psychologists and social workers to aid kids and their parents at the border.

:hula: :jbhmm:
 

the cac mamba

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I was just reading the TLR thread about this guy, but since I can't post over there, I'll ask here. He was accused of telling his people to flood the border. Politifact gave that story a pants on fire rating and showed his real quote. Nikkas was all "AHA! Fake news!", but I don't really see the difference between what he was accused of saying and what he actually said. Can someone explain this to me?


What he was accused of saying



vs

Politifact cleaning it up


-Send a diplomatic note in protest of the Trump’s administration’s policies to the United States;

:hula: :jbhmm:
how dare trump not let people come into the US illegally :dead:

anyway, dude sounds like a mexican bernie sanders :ehh: i hope he does well, minus encouraging his own people to flood our fukkin border :snoop:
 

FAH1223

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Mexicans are excited as they should be... the PAN/PRI axis got wiped out on Sunday.

What's next for Mexico after Lopez Obrador's presidential win?
Leftist politician has promised to stamp out corruption and subdue drug cartels, but remains vague on policy details.
by Simon Schatzberg
85d6bc3e6948474493ae1b558a53916c_18.jpg

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador addressed supporters after polls closed [Edgard Garrido/Reuters]

Mexico City - It took 12 years and three elections, but Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has finally done it.

The veteran leftist politician, who promised that his victory would not represent just a presidential succession, but "regime change", decisively wonSunday's presidential election in Mexico.

Over the last 12 years, during which he has virtually been on a constant campaign, many have accused him of irresponsibly making promises that will be difficult to fulfil because of entrenched political opposition to them.

But now that he's the president-elect, he has a larger mandate to implement his agenda than any president in recent history, some analysts say.

Not only was his margin of victory higher than any Mexican presidential election since 1982, but his brand-new National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) is on track to win a majority in both houses of Mexico's congress.

Federico Morales, a researcher in social development at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), told Al Jazeera that MORENA was able to build such a large base of support by creating a broad alliance of many political forces.

"We are a very diverse country, with many differing political opinions, but most of us share a desire to end corruption, poverty and insecurity," he said. "MORENA has been so successful because it's a broad front that reflects the diversity of Mexico and represents all the people who want to change the country."

For Steve Lewis, a professor of Mexican history at Chico State University in California, "MORENA's rise has been staggering".

"You could call MORENA more of a social movement than a party," he said. "The question is not so much what Lopez Obrador can do, but if he can harness all that energy and goodwill and keep people motivated and engaged to pull off some important changes."

Lopez Obrador's promises include a broad crackdown on government corruption and salary reductions for government employees, which he says will provide enough budget for a vast expansion of social programmes without tax increases or deficit spending.

Although corruption is rampant in Mexico and leads to a non-trivial amount of waste, critics say that in a country as unequal as Mexico, raising taxes will be necessary to implement the kind of redistributive agenda that the president-elect proposes.

PRI tainted
Lopez Obrador's win also comes at a time when every other political force in Mexico is weakened by internal conflicts and popular illegitimacy.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which has ruled the country for 70 years apart from a 12-year hiatus between 2000 and 2012, was decimated on July 1, coming in a distant third place behind MORENA and a coalition led by the centre-right National Action Party (PAN).

Lewis said that although the PRI was able to bounce back after its first-ever defeat in 2000 to elect current President Enrique Pena Nieto in 2012, Sunday's elections could mean the end of the party that once won elections with over 90 percent of the vote.

"People wrote off the PRI in 2000, and that was premature," Lewis said. "And then they gave the PRI another chance in 2012, and most people think it was a disaster. The Pena Nieto administration is so tainted, that in most of the country, the PRI is now the third-largest party. It's certainly no longer a hegemonic party, and it may just hold on to its strongholds and turn into a regional party."

Meanwhile, the PAN is suffering an internal conflict between a younger, more liberal wing led by its presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya and a more conservative wing led by former President Felipe Calderon.

That rift was exposed when Calderon's wife, Margarita Zavala, was passed over for the PAN's nomination for the presidential election.

7c849fed74374854bf4780f1abb36f1d_18.jpg

Obrador swept to a historic victory with his Morena party been described as 'more of a social movement than a party' [Daniel Aguilar/Reuters]

'You can't fight violence with violence'
One of the most difficult issues the next government will face is Mexico's drug war, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives since 2006, when then-President Felipe Calderon sent the army out onto the streets to fight organised crime.

Many say the militarised approach to fighting drug trafficking has been a failure. Military deployments have corresponded with immense increases in violence rates across the country, and 2017 was the most violent year in Mexican history.

During his campaign, Lopez Obrador promised to change the militarised model of combating crime. One of his most controversial proposals has been to give amnesty to certain individuals implicated in drug crimes.

In a presidential debate, he defended his proposal for amnesty, arguing that the drug war needs to be approached with a framework that includes a broader understanding of the problem.

"Why do people grow poppies? Because they have nothing to eat," he said. "You can't fight violence with violence; this is an evil that we have to fight by doing good, and by creating economic growth, jobs and wellbeing."

Many think that this kind of outlook is what Mexico needs to end the drug war.

Alfredo Acedo, spokesman for the National Union of Autonomous Regional Organizations (UNORCA), a confederation of campesino (farmer) groups, told Al Jazeera that guaranteed prices and other kinds of support for rural producers proposed by Lopez Obrador could be key to fighting drug trafficking.

"He's been very clear, we have to resolve poverty and marginalisation, and that in itself will fix the problem of organized crime and drug trafficking to a large degree," he said.

"If the campesinos who grow opium poppies or marijuana, or work with drug trafficking in some other way, if the government offered them programmes that guarantee their harvests will be bought and stored for fair prices that guarantee them subsistence - of course, they will stop working with drug traffickers, which puts them at risk and put their families at risk."

For Lewis, the issue may not be that simple. He said that the roots of the drug war go much deeper than just poverty.

"People have to be reasonable with their expectations," Lewis said. "The US is not going to stop arms from crossing the border into Mexico, and the US still has an insatiable appetite for drugs, so, the drug traffickers are still going to control parts of the country, and a lot of people are still going to die."

A relationship of mutual respect
Only hours after exit polls showed that Lopez Obrador had an insurmountable lead on Sunday, US President Donald Trump took to Twitter to congratulate him.

For many, during the campaign, Lopez Obrador got a boost from Trump's aggressive stance towards Mexico, as Mexican voters believed the veteran politician, with his nationalist rhetoric, would better defend Mexico from Trump than the other candidates.

And now that Lopez Obrador is president-elect, Trump's aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico makes his nationalist proposals more palatable to many Mexicans.

"Trump's threats against Mexico may make economic nationalism an easier sell than it would have been," Lewis said. "He can play the Trump card pretty well in that case."

For example, although Lopez Obrador has said that he wants to try to preserve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), many of his proposals for subsidising agriculture will likely necessitate changes in that agreement, or even the removal of the chapter on agriculture. That could set him on a collision course with Trump as NAFTA renegotiations go forward.

Mexico's president-elect shared a phone conversation with Trump on Monday. The president-elect said told Trump that US aid to Mexico could reduce migration and could be an alternative to a border wall.

Acedo, the campesino leader, hopes that Lopez Obrador will be a stronger advocate for Mexico on the global stage than other Mexican presidents have been in the past.

"Trump himself has said, if you're negotiating with someone who's weak, you can slam your fist on the table and it will scare them," Acedo said.

"I don't think that kind of attitude will work with Andres Manuel. Our two countries are condemned for eternity to have a relationship; we can't just move away from each other. But from now on, that relationship will have to be one of mutual respect."
 

EndDomination

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The Mexican girl I'm talking to doesn't like him. Called him a socialist. :yeshrug:
Just like with your average American, I don't trust their political opinion.

He seems like he's giving out a lot of lofty promises, that will be incredibly difficult to back-up.
What he can do to change the dynamic of the country itself: legalize cannabis and promote state-owned agriculture of it, to be sold to Canada, only adding pressure to the United States to legalize as well, start a top down investigation of the countries police forces, focusing especially on the state-led police forces, use a chunk of the budget for education reform an an infrastructure project, like national high speed rail systems of some kind, invest in renewable energy especially solar power, partner with Venezuela and Cuba to increase healthcare infrastructure and to increase it's foothold in OPEC, push to have longer prison sentences, start grant programmes for many of the college graduates who are finding themselves unemployed, etc.
 

NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong

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Just like with your average American, I don't trust their political opinion.

He seems like he's giving out a lot of lofty promises, that will be incredibly difficult to back-up.
What he can do to change the dynamic of the country itself: legalize cannabis and promote state-owned agriculture of it, to be sold to Canada, only adding pressure to the United States to legalize as well, start a top down investigation of the countries police forces, focusing especially on the state-led police forces, use a chunk of the budget for education reform an an infrastructure project, like national high speed rail systems of some kind, invest in renewable energy especially solar power, partner with Venezuela and Cuba to increase healthcare infrastructure and to increase it's foothold in OPEC, push to have longer prison sentences, start grant programmes for many of the college graduates who are finding themselves unemployed, etc.

I tend to agree with you but idk. She's here on a tourist visa she's not a Mexican American so I thought it was worth noting
 

re'up

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Mexico has plenty of money, it's the corruption in all levels of government. I can't speak whether his policies are all reasonable, but if they aren't it isn't because of money. State governors and mayors take tens of millions of dollars in salary plus bribes and kickbacks, and it goes from the president on down.
 

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Either this is top level dream selling or he’s ready to die. :lupe:

Juntos Haremos Historia, which is Lopez Obrador's political party coalition, has over 300 seats out of the 500 in the Chamber of Deputies and has 70 out of 128 seats in the Senate. They won Governor seats too.

And AMLO himself won the Presidential election by 30 points :damn:

He's got a mandate if his coalition stays together... they are poised to do some big shid.
 
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