Montana Special Election - May 25

FAH1223

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This cowboy-poet is trying to steal a Republican House seat in Montana

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Democrat Rob Quist meets with supporters during the annual Mansfield Metcalf Celebration dinner hosted by the state's Democratic Party on March 18 in Helena, Mont. (Bobby Caina Calvan/AP)
David Weigel and Kathleen McLaughlin April 15

BILLINGS, Mont. — Rob Quist, the Democratic candidate for Montana’s sole U.S. House seat, had a problem. Big Sky Rising, the local progressive group — one of many that grew out of the National Women’s March — had filled a room for his speech.

But the room didn’t have a sound system for Quist, a 69-year-old folk musician, to strum and sing his campaign theme song.

“Let me just recite a poem for you about how I feel about our public lands,” Quist said. “Her gown is luscious green when she attends the annual springtime ball. And she fancies orange and gold and harvest moon in the fall. Her wild and natural beauty — it will take away your breath. Oh, but take her for granted? It could easily mean your death.”

It had been just 48 hours since a surprisingly close special election in Kansas kicked off Republican hand-wringing about forfeiting Montana’s May 25 special election to replace Ryan Zinke (R), now President Trump’s interior secretary.

The Democratic candidate in Montana is a mustachioed 6-foot-3 poet who appears everywhere — churches, fundraisers, and television interviews — in a white cowboy hat and black Ariat boots.

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Greg Gianforte, right, is congratulated by a supporter in Helena, Mont., after winning the Republican nomination for Montana's special election for the U.S. House. (Matt Volz/AP)

That cowboy-poet has raised $1.3 million so far and was competitive with a self-funding Republican contender, Greg Gianforte, who jumped into the race after a near miss 2016 gubernatorial run. Trump easily won Montana, but Democrats still compete strongly for statewide offices.

Republicans, flush with cash but facing unbridled Democratic enthusiasm, are taking Quist a bit more seriously. On Thursday, the National Republican Congressional Committee began a $273,000 digital and TV ad buy, accusing Quist of singing in “harmony” with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The GOP-allied Congressional Leadership Fund is committing at least $1 million to the race, though Executive Director Corey Bliss said last week that Quist had no chance to win.

“Rob Quist is such a pathetic candidate that we almost feel bad running ads against him,” Bliss said. “At the end of the day he’ll lose by double-digits.”

Montana is one of five special elections this year for open House seats — four of them vacated when Trump plucked Republican lawmakers to become part of his administration. So far, Democrats are doing better than anticipated in conservative areas — including Kansas, where the Democrat came within seven points last Tuesday of winning a district that Trump nabbed by 27 points.

But while the Georgia race is seen as a test for the “rising electorate” of minority voters and highly educated white voters, the Montana race is a test for populism. Quist, who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for president, portrays Gianforte as a plutocrat who will work only for his class. It’s the argument Democrats failed to stick to Trump, and one they want to see working in the places where working-class white voters bolted their party.

Gianforte, who has been criticized for holding few public events, plans to welcome Donald Trump Jr. — an avid hunter who argued for Zinke at Interior — to the state next week. The first son will swing into Montana for rallies and fundraisers, $25 a pop.

Quist, who won the Democratic nomination at a January convention, professes to be thrilled with the GOP attention. On Thursday, at two public events in Billings, he told Big Sky Rising and a separate room of union members that he could “smell the fear” coming from the right.


“One of my top priorities in Congress will be to stop these corporate interests from dictating policy,” Quist told pipe fitters at their Billings union hall. “When I was younger, there was a graph that showed the distribution of wealth across the classes. Now, if you look at the same graph, it’s flat across the bottom, and when you get to the super-rich, they have so much of the wealth that it flies off the page.”

Soft-spoken left-wing populism like that helped Quist become the nominee. Our Revolution, the group founded by Sanders, has endorsed Quist. In an interview last week, Sanders said he was looking for an opportunity to stump for him.

“If you look up Montana in the dictionary, you see a picture of Rob Quist,” said Rep. Denny Heck (D-Wash.), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Committee’s recruitment program.

“Rob Quist’s as Montana as Montana can get,” said the state’s governor, Steve Bullock (D), who defeated Gianforte, Quist’s opponent, just five months ago. “He’s been in all these small communities. He’s working hard. He reflects our values.”

The implication is that none of those kinds of words apply to Gianforte. Crisp and confident, the Republican moved to Montana 24 years ago and grew a software company, RightNow Technologies, out of Bozeman. (He was 33, having sold his first company for $10 million.) In Quist’s TV ads, he argues that “there are enough millionaires in Congress” and brands Gianforte as an East Coast arriviste.

At the same time, Montanans elected a New York real estate businessman to the presidency — a leap of faith that informs how Gianforte now campaigns. In his TV ads, he promises to “drain the swamp” and stick it to political elites.

On Thursday, as Quist stumped in Billings, Gianforte met with local business and political leaders seven hours away in Kalispell in conservative Flathead County.

Gianforte, wearing a flag-pinned blazer over a checked shirt, shared the gospel of free markets. “We got here with a series of steps over a period of time, and I think that’s how we dig ourselves out,” he said. “I am encouraged that we have President Trump in the White House because for the first time we have an opportunity to effect change. And I want to be a part of it because I don’t want to see our country squander it.”

In an interview, Gianforte paused when asked why outside groups were investing in the race. “I do believe — and we saw this recently with the health-care conversation that went on — for the administration to advance their agenda, they need the votes in the House,” he said. “National groups have gotten involved because they want to help. I’ll always be on Montana’s side, but I’m going to help Donald Trump advance his agenda.”

At a Quist fundraiser last week, attendees grabbed lawn signs using the same stylized signature as his album cover as they left. They said there was energy they didn’t feel when Hillary Clinton was running for president.

“It’s an opportunity to kick the Republicans in the butt,” said Steve Griswold, 67, a retiree from Wisconsin.

Becky Weed, a 57-year-old sheep rancher, pointed out that the event was less than a mile from Gianforte’s home. Democrats cut into the Republican’s support by publicizing his 2009 legal battle to stop public access to the part of a stream that ran through his property.

“I’m immersed in the ranch culture, and people I know generally vote Republican,” Weed said. “But they’re willing to go for something different, especially when you’ve got public lands at stake.”

The Republican plan is to brand Quist as a liberal in cowboy clothing, more Willie Nelson than Hank Williams Jr. Its doomsday weapon is an interview Quist gave to the Bozeman Daily Chronicle. After talking about his guns and his luck as a hunter, he mused that “assault” weapons, no good for hunting, might need to be registered.

“They’re only meant to kill people,” he said, “so maybe there should be some legislation to register those types of things. You register your car to drive, why not register guns?”

It was the gaffe of a novice candidate, and Republicans pounced. The NRCC’s first ad tells voters that Quist wants a “national gun registry.” The National Rifle Association is expected to swing into the race with the same message. On the stump, Gianforte never misses a swing at the gun issue. “I’m a strong supporter of the Second Amendment — he believes in gun registration,” he said in Kalispell. The next day, he warned a Republican crowd in Missoula that “registration is the first step toward confiscation.”

Quist said in an interview that he’d been ripped out of context.

“I was talking about fully automatic assault rifles,” he said. “I was taught that if it takes you more than one shot to bring big game down, you shouldn’t be in the woods.”

Quist advised anyone campaigning for him to point out the gun attack was coming from special interests. There were guns in the Quist home, he said, that had been there longer than Gianforte had been in Montana.


“All these sports groups know this is a smokescreen,” Quist said. “The number one reason that people no longer hunt or fish is loss of access to public lands.”

Quist was more relaxed when it came to attacks on his finances. It was true, he said, that he’d faced $15,000 tax liens and settled in 2016. But he has a multimillionaire to defeat.

“I probably should have declared bankruptcy,” he said. “But that’s not the Montana way.”

Margaret Grayson in Missoula contributed to this report.
This cowboy-poet is trying to steal a Republican House seat in Montana
 

FAH1223

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A Google Consumer Survey of Montana’s at-large district showed the Democratic candidate, Rob Quist, running seven points ahead of the Republican candidate, Greg Gianforte. Quist won 48% of respondents, Gianforte 41%, and Libertarian Mark Wicks 11%.

HOME >> Current Montana Polling

Current Montana Polling
April 6, 2017
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Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,222 individuals across Montana. The poll has a margin of error of ±2.9%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using interactive voice responses and internet responses of cell phone users, with the results weighted by demographic characteristics.

2) How likely are you to vote in the Montana U.S. House special election?


3) Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?


4) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bullock’s job performance?


5) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tester’s job performance?


6) If the special election for Congress were held today and the candidates were Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist, Libertarian Mark Wicks, and Green Thomas Breck, who would you vote for?


The following questions are for demographic purposes:
7) What is your party affiliation?


8) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?


9) What race do you identify yourself as?


10) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?


11) What is the highest level of education you have completed?


12) How old are you?


13) What is your gender?
 

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Seems like an uphill battle for D's but Montana is sort of an elastic state, politically. They've elected state-wide D's recently including Tester and their Governor. Montana is more like Missouri or Indiana than it is like Tennessee or Arkansas.
 

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Seems like an uphill battle for D's but Montana is sort of an elastic state, politically. They've elected state-wide D's recently including Tester and their Governor. Montana is more like Missouri or Indiana than it is like Tennessee or Arkansas.

Not to mention the Governor just defeated the guy Quist is running against

Quist also has name recognition and a good grassroots operation. The DCCC probably won't help at all.

I've only seen 2 polls so who knows
 

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Montana will spend $750,000 to avoid making it easier for Democrats to vote
There was concern that the ease of mail-in voting would advantage Democrats.

Considering that Montana ranks 48th in the country for population density with only 6.5 people per square mile, it’s no surprise that allowing voters to simply cast ballots through the mail would save the state up to $750,000.

Nonetheless, this week, Montana House Speaker Austin Knudsen (R) put the final nail in the coffin of a bill that would have made the state’s upcoming special election all mail-in votes — seemingly to avoid the reality that when barriers to voting are removed, Democrats cast more ballots.

The special election on May 25 will determine who will succeed former Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), whom President Trump tapped to serve as Secretary of the Interior. It was actually a Republican state senator, Steve Fitzpatrick, who introduced a bill that would have made it a mail-only election, calling ita “fiscally responsible thing to do.” The bill, however, turned into a partisan ping-pong match that ended with Knudsen’s kill-shot.

Fitzpatrick’s bill had actually passed the Republican-controlled Senate, but not before Montana Republican Chairman Rep. Jeff Essmann distributed an “emergency report” blatantly admitting his concern that the change would advantage Democrats. “All mail ballots give the Democrats an inherent advantage in close elections,” he wrote, “due to their ability to organize large numbers of unpaid college students and members of public employee unions to gather ballots by going door to door.” In other words, Republicans can only win if it’s harder for more people to vote.

https://thinkprogress.org/montana-election-mail-ballots-44e0657746c6
 

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The DCCC Is Jumping In And The Special Election In Montana Is About To Get A Ton More Attention
Democrats are making a six-figure investment into the Montana state party.

Two days after a surprisingly strong showing in a Georgia special election, congressional Democrats are adding a new race to their list of priorities, a contest in Montana that pits local musical legend Rob Quist against businessman and creationist Greg Gianforte.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making an initial six-figure investment into the Montana state party to back Quist’s campaign, DCCC spokesperson Meredith Kelly told The Huffington Post.

It will be left to the state party and the campaign to decide how best to use the funds, whether on mail, television or door-knocking operations. The spending is in the low six-figures, but is unlikely to be the last cash infusion from the national party as attention increasingly turns to the state’s race.

The DCCC Is Jumping In And The Special Election In Montana Is About To Get A Ton More Attention | The Huffington Post
 

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As early voting kicks off in Montana this week, national Democrats are holding back from heavy investments in the state’s May 25 special House election, believing Democratic candidate Rob Quist still has a steep hill to climb to win a state that voted heavily for President Donald Trump just months ago.

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, no? Trump is popular in Montana and no matter how much Dems spent the Rep would still be favored but this is a state with an elastic electorate with a Dem Senator and Governor right now. It's not an unwinnable race.
 

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Montana Democrat Racks Up Donations As GOP Opponent Waffles On Health Care Bill | HuffPost

Over the course of 72 hours this past week, Greg Gianforte, the millionaire Republican running for Montana’s open congressional seat, took three different stances on the health care bill just passed by the House of Representatives.

And his opponent took that flip-flopping to the bank.

Democrat Rob Quist, who has refused to accept donations from lobbyists or corporate political action committees, raised over $500,000 in the past four days, his campaign told HuffPost on Wednesday. Campaign contributions, which average $25 and have come from about 147,000 individual donors, now top $3.7 million.

“Our campaign has seen a surge in donations and volunteer enthusiasm since New Jersey multimillionaire Greg Gianforte was caught saying one thing to Montanans and the opposite to his D.C. lobbyist donors,” Tina Olechowski, Quist’s spokeswoman, said in a statement. “Every day Montana voters learn more about how Gianforte doesn’t share Montana values, and thanks to the grassroots movement and momentum behind Rob we’ll have the resources we need to win on May 25th.”

Democrats, who at first ignored the May 25 special election in Montana, have ramped up fundraising as the race becomes more competitive. The party has sent multiple email blasts soliciting donations. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Quist last month. Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez offered to campaign with him in Montana, although Quist turned down the offer, concerned that it could alienate Republican swing voters.

The banjo-strumming folk singer is tailing the deep-pocketed Gianforte, who narrowly lost a race for Montana governor last year, by about 6 points in the latest poll. The GOP has stepped up its support for Gianforte. Last month, the National Rifle Association launched a series of ads attacking Quist for supporting gun control. The president’s eldest son, hunting enthusiast Donald Trump Jr., campaigned with Gianforte last month, and has announced plans to make a return trip. Vice President Mike Pence is slated to visit Billings, Montana’s largest city, on Friday.

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WILLIAM CAMPBELL VIA GETTY IMAGES
Republican Greg Gianforte campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives on April 22, 2017, in Bozeman, Montana. Donald Trump Jr. appeared at the event to support Gianforte.


Quist has countered the NRA blitz with his own ads in which he appears, clad in a cowboy hat, shooting a TV with a rifle. In a state where public land access is a key issue, Quist has repeatedly attacked Gianforte for suing Montana in 2009 to block fishermen from using a river running through his palatial property.

But with anemic public support for the American Health Care Act, health care could become an effective wedge issue for Quist as he courts voters outside his base. The bill, which would dramatically scale back protections of the Affordable Care Act, known colloquially as Obamacare, narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House last Thursday. Less than a third of the public favors the new bill, according to a HuffPost/YouGov survey published Monday. A Fox News poll found similar results.

On Thursday, as President Donald Trump feted the AHCA’s passage with a flashy, beer-fueled musical celebration, Gianforte declined to comment on the bill. “Greg needs to know all the facts because it’s important to know exactly what’s in the bill before he votes on it,” spokesman Shane Scanlon told the Missoulian.

But later that day, Gianforte told lobbyist donors in Washington, D.C., that he backed the bill.

“The votes in the House are going to determine whether we get tax reform done, sounds like we just passed a health care thing, which I’m thankful for, sounds like we’re starting to repeal and replace,” Gianforte said, according to audio of the call published by The New York Times.

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WILLIAM CAMPBELL VIA GETTY IMAGES
Protestors hold signs at an April rally for Republican Greg Gianforte.

Then, over the weekend, Gianforte told a local CBS affiliate in Montana that he would have voted against the bill, which allows states to waive rules protecting people with pre-existing conditions from being turned away or charged astronomical rates.

“I’ve been very clear, to repeal and replace ‘Obamacare’ we must have guarantees here in Montana that rates will go down, rural access will be preserved, and people with pre-existing conditions will be protected,” Gianforte told KPAX. “If I didn’t have that assurance I would have voted against it.”

Gianforte has accepted $2 million from the Congressional Leadership Fund, which only supports candidates who back the AHCA. His campaign did not immediately offer a comment Wednesday morning.

The personal histories of Gianforte and his opponent play handily into Democrats’ health care narrative. In 1991, Gianforte, a software entrepreneur, settled a lawsuit with a former employee who’d accused Gianforte of firing him for having multiple sclerosis. By contrast, Quist, a musician and son of ranchers whose wife is a real estate agent, spiraled into debt after undergoing a botched surgery that counted as a pre-existing condition, disqualifying him from health insurance. He was forced to sell off part of his family’s ranch and access Social Security early to afford follow-up surgeries and avoid bankruptcy.

“Montanans deserve and expect honesty from their representatives but we’ve yet to see that from New Jersey multimillionaire Greg Gianforte,” Olechowski told HuffPost. “All the damage control his wealth can buy can’t walk this back ― Montanans expect straight talk, not a career politician who will only share his true positions with lobbyist donors behind closed doors.”
 
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