T.he I.nformant
1st Ballot HOF Teller
Ranking teams by U-25 talent
Thunder, Pelicans, Rockets flush with exciting, young players
Updated: August 8, 2013, 11:24 AM ET
By Amin Elhassan | ESPN Insider
The unintended consequence of the new collective bargaining agreement has been the emphasis on asset collection: draft picks, cap space and youth. Players under the age of 25 are coveted more than ever, mostly for their artificially low rookie-scale salaries, but also for the promise of potential yet to be realized.
During my time as an assistant director of basketball operations in the NBA, I considered it a priority to be as knowledgeable as possible about young players on rosters, particularly those in their "First Four" years in the league (you might have read about these types of players during the Vegas Summer League). The under-25 list is a bit more expansive in that it includes players well into their second contracts, but nevertheless is still a good measure of young talent on a roster.
While an inventory of talent under the age of 25 on a roster is not predictive of a franchise's future success (the quality of management decision-making, financial resources, team chemistry, coaching and, of course, luck all play major roles), you'd rather your team have the assets in hand than not have them, all else being equal.
Given the select nature of those players eligible for an under-25 team ranking, here's an overview of guidelines and some brief rules of thumb:
• In order to be eligible for this list, a player must be 24 years old or younger (born on or after Aug. 8, 1988).
• Teams with established superstars get an edge, due to a greater likelihood of return on investment, over teams with multiple "solid" talents (as the adage goes, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"). However, teams with a lot of bushes (a full cupboard of solid talents) may trump teams with a solitary star.
• Added consideration was given to players who made last season's top 25 under 25 list or next 10 list.
• Players considered were only those expected to be on the 2013-14 roster (i.e. no Nikola Mirotic for Chicago, Raul Neto for Utah, etc.).
With the ground rules established, here's our ranking of the top 15 teams in the league based on under-25 talent. Note that player ages are indicated in parentheses.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Players: Steven Adams (20), Kevin Durant (24), Serge Ibaka (23), Reggie Jackson (23), Grant Jerrett (20), Perry Jones III (21), Jeremy Lamb (21), Daniel Orton (23), Andre Roberson (21), Russell Westbrook (24)
The Thunder were the only team to place three players in the top 25 under 25 list last January, and as of this writing, all three of those players are still under 25 and still fantastic. Durant's firmly entrenched at No. 1 of the "Best Player Not Named LeBron James" list, Westbrook is probably the most dynamic player at the point guard position and Ibaka continues to improve his skill set and range to make him more than a defensive specialist.
However, what makes the Thunder No. 1 on my ranking is their stable of young prospects and track record for developing talent. Jackson is a shining example of this, going from hardly playing in his rookie season to being a major contributor (and a starter in the playoffs once Westbrook went down). Elsewhere, Lamb is a silky-smooth shooting guard with excellent length and athleticism, Jones III has the chance to be a "Durant-lite" with his size and skill set, and rookies Adams and Roberson bring a different dynamic to the front line.
Oklahoma City is the rare team that is legitimately contending for a championship while simultaneously stockpiling real talent in its youth pipeline.
2. New Orleans Pelicans
Players: Al-Farouq Aminu (22), Anthony Davis (20), Tyreke Evans (23), Eric Gordon (24), Jrue Holiday (23), Pierre Jackson (21), Darius Miller (23), Austin Rivers (21), Jeff Withey (23)
Remember when I said the collection of young talent is not necessarily a predictor of future success? The Pelicans fit the bill here (no pun intended) as a team with a whole that is probably less than the sum of its parts. That said, they really have some pieces in their inventory, starting with 2012 No. 1 overall pick Davis. I saw him at USA Basketball training camp in Las Vegas, and he looks like he added some weight and improved the consistency of his midrange jumper. Davis has the potential to be a face-of-the-franchise talent if he continues to add strength. It's hard to believe draft-day acquisition Holiday is only 23 years old as he enters his fifth year as a pro; he provides the perfect pairing for Davis as an upper-echelon point guard who can grow with him.
It gets murkier from here, as Evans and Gordon are both talents I highly value (they were both on my next 10 list last January), though I'm not certain they can both co-exist with each other, or with Holiday, for that matter. Still, this list is about asset accumulation, and while I question the salaries paid to these players, they are good talents in their own right with the potential to get better.
Rounding out the roster, Aminu showed signs of being a defensive stopper on the wing and valuable rebounder -- though he needs to improve his perimeter jumper. Rivers has a ton of potential as a bench scorer, but his own mentality and $35 million in committed 2013-14 backcourt salaries all but ensure that if he realizes his potential, it will be somewhere else.
3. Utah Jazz
Players: Trey Burke (20), Alec Burks (22), Derrick Favors (22), Rudy Gobert (21), Gordon Hayward (23), Enes Kanter (21)
Although they lack a single player ranked in the top 25 under 25, I have the Jazz third on this list for two reasons. First, Favors is quickly laying claim to the mantle of "most underrated player in the league" by virtue of playing for the small-market Jazz. He's a top-shelf athlete with excellent length and an improving post game, and also serves as a team defensive anchor and rim protector. Second, Utah has diversified talent; that is to say, the Jazz have players who bring different things to the table at different positions: Hayward as a shooter, Burks as a combo guard, Burke as a scoring point guard and Kanter as a talented face-up 4. The advantage gained by this is that each player has the room to grow their game into natural areas of team need without cannibalizing their minutes.
Outside of those core players, Gobert is an athletic freak who has the potential to be a game-changing talent on the defensive end. He won't see much time initially, but that's a good thing for a player whose game needs refining.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Players: Anthony Bennett (20), Carrick Felix (22), Kyrie Irving (21), Sergey Karasev (19), Tristan Thompson (22), Dion Waiters (21), Tyler Zeller (23)
The list takes an interesting turn as I rank the Cavs fourth, based a great deal on the rising star of Irving. I have previously written about what makes Irving special, and recently seeing him in action at USA Basketball Training Camp only reaffirmed my belief that it is only a matter of time before he is unequivocally regarded as the best point guard in the league. His superhuman feel, unbelievable ball-handling skills, proficient perimeter game and leadership skills all point toward greatness. Outside of Irving are a collection of talented assets: Thompson improved greatly from his rookie year as an energy big and outstanding rebounder, Waiters had his moments as a slasher and scorer who needs to get more consistent and Zeller showed decent feel and touch on the block.
Cleveland brought in one of the more complete rookie classes in 2013, including No. 1 overall pick Bennett, who has the potential to be a versatile inside-outside threat, Karasev as a big wing shooter and Felix as a big wing defender and energy guy.
5. Chicago Bulls
Players: Jimmy Butler (23), Erik Murphy (22), Derrick Rose (24), Tony Snell (21), Marquis Teague (20)
If Cleveland was No. 4, Chicago ought to be No. 4(a). Rose is right up there as one of the elite players in the league, regardless of position, although it remains to be seen how he reacts to coming back from the first major injury of his career, which caused him to miss the 2012-13 season. The expectations will be massive, especially considering the somewhat controversial decision to not play during the Bulls' playoff run last spring. Still, a lot of weight must be given to a legitimate franchise player like Rose, who is a piece that almost every other team would kill to have.
Butler made a name for himself last season after not playing much his rookie year, and contributed with high-level athleticism on the wing and excellent defensive instincts. He's improved his accuracy from the perimeter but needs to continue to work on his shot in order to handle the greater scoring load that will be expected of him. With the departure of Nate Robinson, Teague has the opportunity to seize minutes at the backup PG position from veteran Kirk Hinrich. Rookies Murphy and Snell probably won't play this season, but both bring something useful to the table: Murphy as a stretch 4 and Snell as a ballhandling "3-and-D" wing.
Discuss.
