I have not thought about it like this. Now it does makes sense
Yeah, it doesn't apply to every situation, and obviously the coaches have a feel for how the teams doing, but the though process like I said goes like this:
-Kick the FG and the kick it off. Opponent may get it at the 35 or better. They are twenty yards or so away from FG range. With the way kickers are bombing kicks now, there's a good chance that they are making a FG if they get two first downs. Now, it's a wash with FG's.
-Don't convert on 4th down, and your opponent is pinned deep. Try to get a quick three and out, and you end up with good field position due to a punt.
-Go for it and score. Best case scenario.