Now You See The Running Man: Now You Don't | The Domestic Box Office Thread | Nov. 14-16

[Avisible Man]

@Avisible Man with you following the charts like you have, what's your take on the Black Adam fiasco?

You think it really needed to make 600M to break even?

Black Adam needing $600M to break even would mean that it grossed 3x it's $200M production budget. The general rule of thumb is that a movie needs 2.5x its production budget to break even. There's some people who argue for 2x the production budget. These rules take into account the production and marketing budgets to determine profitability.

So, going by the 2.5x rule, Black Adam needed $500M worldwide to break even. It's made $390M worldwide, which is 22% shy of the number needed.

Going by the 2x rule, it would still be just shy of breaking even. It's $390M would be 2.5% shy of the necessary $400M gross.

If you look at the domestic and international revenue splits, you get a good estimate of the distributor's take. Some people go by the 50% rule for domestic take; some go by the 60% rule. I've usually seen the 50% rule as the general rule of the thumb. The distributor (WB) takes 40% of the international gross, typically. I believe it's always 25% of the Chinese gross, where The Rock is big, but not applicable, in this case.

Black Adam's $167.7M domestic gross would mean $83.86M revenue for WB, by the 50% rule. It's $222.3M international take results in $88.92M in revenue. Add them together and you get $172.78M in revenue. That's 86.4% of the $200M production budget. It would still be shy of breaking even if you went with the 60% domestic take, which would result in revenue of $189.54M and be 94.8% of the way there.

Black Adam is like an Incredible Hulk level "miss." Incredible Hulk made back 87% of it's budget at the box office. It's right there with Eternals making back 86.8% of it's budget from the box office.

It's a theatrical "miss" in that sense but not a total disaster.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Black Adam needing $600M to break even would mean that it grossed 3x it's $200M production budget. The general rule of thumb is that a movie needs 2.5x its production budget to break even. There's some people who argue for 2x the production budget. These rules take into account the production and marketing budgets to determine profitability.

So, going by the 2.5x rule, Black Adam needed $500M worldwide to break even. It's made $390M worldwide, which is 22% shy of the number needed.

Going by the 2x rule, it would still be just shy of breaking even. It's $390M would be 2.5% shy of the necessary $400M gross.

If you look at the domestic and international revenue splits, you get a good estimate of the distributor's take. Some people go by the 50% rule for domestic take; some go by the 60% rule. I've usually seen the 50% rule as the general rule of the thumb. The distributor (WB) takes 40% of the international gross, typically. I believe it's always 25% of the Chinese gross, where The Rock is big, but not applicable, in this case.

Black Adam's $167.7M domestic gross would mean $83.86M revenue for WB, by the 50% rule. It's $222.3M international take results in $88.92M in revenue. Add them together and you get $172.78M in revenue. That's 86.4% of the $200M production budget. It would still be shy of breaking even if you went with the 60% domestic take, which would result in revenue of $189.54M and be 94.8% of t belhe way there.

Black Adam is like an Incredible Hulk level "miss." Incredible Hulk made back 87% of it's budget at the box office. It's right there with Eternals making back 86.8% of it's budget from the box office.

It's a theatrical "miss" in that sense but not a total disaster.

i believe Dwayne calculated what they'll see from merchandising/blu ray/digital sales and was saying it's going to be profitable for WB based on that..

 

[Avisible Man]

What's at the Movies this Christmas Weekend? Dec. 23-25​

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Apologies for getting this out late. I was out picking up a couple of gifts and grocery shopping. To me, the best time to grocery shop is about an hour before closing. There's not a big crowd and the incompetent Market Basket workers are stocking the shelves with fresh shyt for the next morning.

But that's neither here nor there. But to be fair, I did go to the mall and the Cinemark is right there. Matter fact, I got a 'What's New and Now' email from Cinemark letting me know that Puss in Boots showings are gonna have special plushies.

I ain't plan to see this on the weekend...but...I kinda want that Kitty Softpaws plushy to match Whiskers, my tuxedo cat. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will be playing in 4,099 theaters. It actually opened on Wednesday, to the tune of $3.2M. Boxoffice Pro is projecting a $16.6M opening. Puss in Boots, on its way to $149.2M, opened with $34M back in 2011 which is $45.1M when adjusted for inflation. $16.6M is a long way off of that. But it's getting great reviews and it's got Avatar in its way. Peep the trailer.




Speaking of Avatar, The Way of Water, will be playing in 4,402 theaters. It's made $183M domestically and $609.8M worldwide. It's looking at a $61.3M weekend, which would be a 54.3% dropoff from last weekend's $134.1M opening.

We got I Wanna Dance With Somebody, the Whitney Houston biopic courtesy of Sony, playing in 3,625 theaters. It's looking at $9.6M. The black women starring, The Woman King, opened with $19M back in September. Sony released Journal for Jordan, which starred Michael B. Jordan, last Christmas, and it only grossed $1.2M that weekend. We'll see what the spirit of Whitney can do. Hopefully she won't be rolling over in her grave.




The final new release is Damien Chazelle's Babylon. Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie star in a:

tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.

It'll play in 3,343 theaters. It could make $6.7M. Chazelle's last film, First Man, opened with $16M in October of 2018, on its way to $44.9M domestically. That was a big fall off from what he did with La La Land with a budget that was three times smaller. Babylon has a production budget of $110M according to the-numbers. IMDb estimates it at $78M. Either way, and I believe the-numbers, it's a bigger budget than First Man's $60M, which already was diminishing returns. I suspect Babylon will be no different. The trailer was cool though.




The Tobyssance continues.

That's it for the new releases but we still have Violent Night, Black Panther, Strange World, The Fablemans, The Menu, and possibly The Whale, as wide releases.

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What's Playing ​

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​

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century Studios	4,202​	4,202​	​
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures	4,099​	​	New​
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody	Sony Pictures	3,625​	​	New​
Babylon	Paramount Pictures	3,343​	​	New​
Violent Night	Universal Pictures	2,562​	3,525​	-963​
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Walt Disney	2,250​	3,380​	-1,130​
Strange World	Walt Disney	1,390​	2,870​	-1,480​
The Fabelmans	Universal Pictures	1,122​	955​	+167​
The Menu	Searchlight Pictures	840​	1,875​	-1,035​
Devotion	Sony Pictures	427​	2,211​	-1,784​
Empire of Light	Searchlight Pictures	350​	436​	-86​
Black Adam	Warner Bros.	178​	1,304​	-1,126​
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	Sony Pictures	121​	423​	-302​
Ticket to Paradise	Universal Pictures	105​	531​	-426​
The Banshees of Inisherin	Searchlight Pictures	80​	165​	-85​
TÁR	Focus Features	36​	63​

Catch y'all on Christmas, ya filthy animals

 

[Avisible Man]

'The Way of Water' Makes it Snow $56M 'This Christmas.' Word to Donny: Weekend Box Office Results (Dec. 23-25)​

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Merry Christmas, y'all. Christmas at the Box Office was disappointing compared to last year. Last year's Top 10 saw a gross of $139.8M compared to only $83.5M this weekend.

It's looking like Avatar: The Way of Water underperformed with $56M. That was a decline of 58.2% from it's debut last weekend. Obviously, that was more than good enough for a 1st place finish but it was projected to do $61.5M. Maybe Disney will blame the storm and the loss of power. I lost power for 33 hours but I was still out and about.

Compared to 2009's Avatar, the disparity is glaring. Avatar only dropped by 1.8% in it's second weekend, which, like The Way of Water, was also Christmas weekend. Last Christmas saw Spider-Man: No Way Home bring in $84.5M, which was a 67.5% decline from it's $260.1M debut. Obviously, The Way of Water's 58.2% decline is a better hold than Spider-Man's 67.5% drop, but I'll take the $84.5M Christmas weekend over the $56M. There's always tomorrow for Avatar. No Way Home made 24.7M on Monday, Dec. 27th. Avatar is projected to do $26M tomorrow. It's made $253.6M domestically and $855.3M worldwide. No Way Home had made $437.1M domestically by Christmas. The comparison is fair because No Way Home and the original Avatar are the number 3 and 4 top grossing movies of all time at the Domestic Box Office. You'll be aight, Avatar. You're performing adequately.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish saw $11.35M in it's debut weekend. It's grossed $17.4M so far. That's a far cry from 2011's Puss in Boot's $34M opening. That's a 66.2% decline to be precise. It's got a 75 on Metacritic though.

The weak, Whitney biopic, I Wanna Dance with Somebody, debuted in 3rd place with a paltry $5.3M. It's got middling reviews with a 55 on Metacritic and a 45 on Rotten Tomatoes. Whitney Houston is rolling over in her grave. Seven point nine rolls to be exact, to match the $7.9M worldwide total.

Babylon came in 4th with a pathetic $3.5M. That's what a $110M production budget gets you. It's rocking a rock solid 56 on Sorry, Chazelle.

Rounding out the top five was Black Panther 2 with $3M. That brings it's domestic total to $425.6M, which is good for 2nd place at the Domestic Box Office this year, ahead of Doctor Strange 2's $411.3M. It's a different story worldwide, though. Black Panther has only grossed $799.4M, which puts it in 6th place.

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Notables Outside The Top Five​

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We can't have Christmas without Santa. Violent Night broke the $40M mark with another $1.88M.

The Whale has Brendan Fraser looking like the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor in a Leading Role. The movie went wide as it expanded to 603 theaters and grossed just under a mill with $921K.

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The Top Ten​

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Rank​	Last Week​	Movie ​	Gross​	+/- % Last Week​	Theaters​	Total Gross​	Weeks​	Distributor​
1	1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$56.0M	-58.2%	4,202	$253,681,686	2	20th Century Studios
2	-	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	$11.35M	-	4,099	$17,452,855	1	Universal
3	-	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody	$5.3M	-	3,625	$5,300,000	1	TriStar Pictures
4	-	Babylon	$3.5M	-	3,343	$3,500,000	1	Paramount
5	2	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$3.022M	-43.5%	2,250	$425,677,401	7	Disney
6	3	Violent Night	$1.88M	-62.8%	2,562	$40,348,460	4	Universal
7	14	The Whale	$921K	+536.5%	603	$2,479,273	3	A24
8	5	The Menu	$617K	-62.1%	840	$33,796,843	6	Searchlight Pictures
9	7	The Fabelmans	$550K	-26%	1,122	$9,724,456	7	Universal
10	4	Strange World	$410K	-81.5%	1,390	$35,599,242	5	Disney

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Catch y'all next week

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

you may want to revise that number @Avisible Man .. the actual numbers are way higher now...

 

[Red Shield]

Outside of maybe Megan beating it for a weekend. Avatar will probably have the entire next month at number 1.


Wish my local theater was showing the The Whale. Means I gotta go far out to catch it. Will be my last flick of the 2022

 

[Lootpack]

Going against the Avatar franchise is one thing, but I don’t think there was any other way Babylon could be saved. That’s a tough film to sell to the general audience.

Script got messy but I still enjoyed my time. There was also only one other person in the theater with me while watching it. If the attendance was any higher, I’m pretty sure there would’ve been some walkouts within the first 30 minutes alone.

Walked into Puss in Boots being tired of spin-offs and came out wanting even more. This was fantastic and I see it legging out through next month. Between this and The Bad Guys, I’m really digging the evolution of DreamWorks animation lately. More-so than Pixar.

 

[Sad Bunny]

When will avatar hit 1 billion?

 

[semicko82]

When will avatar hit 1 billion?

Wed or Thur

 

[humminbird]

Hoping avatar gets 1.5 now

 

[Fillerguy]

I wonder if JC haters will start this flop shyt again with Avatar 4. #3 is already filmed

 

[semicko82]

Hoping avatar gets 1.5 now

1.5 to 1.7 billion was always the give. If it can get to 2 billion is the real question

 

[Avisible Man]

What's at the Movies this New Year's Weekend? Dec. 30 - Jan. 1​

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​

It's still the Holiday season and we've reached the final weekend at the Box Office. We have no new wide releases, just holdovers before M3gan brings the fukkery to theaters next weekend.

One of those holdovers is Avatar: The Way of Water, which has already totaled $1.1B worldwide after 13 days. $338M of that total is domestic. How does that compare to Avatar's first 13 days in 2009? Avatar had made $268.8M with a $77M opening weekend, for a multiplier of 3.49. The Way of Water is currently rocking a multiplier of 2.52 and climbing. That means The Way of Water would be at $468M domestically if it were performing like Avatar with it's 3.49 multiplier.

After 13 days, when adjusted for inflation, Avatar's $373.1M is only 9.4% ahead of The Way of Water's $338M. It'll be playing at the same 4,202 theaters and looks to bring in another $56M. It over indexed last weekend so we'll see what happens this time around. I haven't seen it yet. Like I said before, I did see Avatar when it came out in 2009 but, for some reason, I don't have the same level of interest this time around. I guess I'm still waiting on that True Lies sequel.

Puss in Boots adds 22 theaters to it's showings, as it expands to 4,121 theaters. It's looking at $14.9M. The meovvie has grossed $38.6M after 8 days. Worldwide, it's at $79.4M. This is one I definitely wanna see. It should be threatening the $70M mark after this weekend.

I Wanna Flop with Somebody is only at a measley $9.4M. It debuted with $4.7M last weekend. It'll play at the same 3,625 theaters. Boxoffice Pro has the projection at $4.4M. Like Whitney, that seems high.

Babylon, with it's $6.6M domestic gross, inexplicably adds 8 theaters. It grossed $3.6M last weekend and it's projected to do $2.9M this weekend. Gross, indeed.

Violent Night will play at 2,563 theaters. Santa is chugging towards $50M domestic, as it's at $44.7M. It's at $68.7M worldwide. It's been on-demand for the last week and it's still doing numbers.

Black Panther 2 actually adds 60 theaters, as it looks to add to its $805.2M worldwide total, $431.5M of which is domestic. Doctor Strange 2's $952.2M is a long way away, let alone Black Panther's $1.3M.

A Man Called Otto is this week's lone, new, limited, but really Oscar qualifying release. It will show in 4 theaters like all the Oscar bait movies do. It's a remake of an adaptation, starring Tom Hanks. The synopsis:

Otto is a grump who's given up on life following the loss of his wife and wants to end it all. When a young family moves in nearby, he meets his match in quick-witted Marisol, leading to a friendship that will turn his world around.

And trailer:

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What's Playing ​

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Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century Studios	4,202​	4,202​	​
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures	4,121​	4,099​	+22​
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody	Sony Pictures	3,625​	3,625​	​
Babylon	Paramount Pictures	3,351​	3,343​	+8​
Violent Night	Universal Pictures	2,563​	2,562​	+1​
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Walt Disney	2,310​	2,250​	+60​
Strange World	Walt Disney	1,240​	1,390​	-150​
The Fabelmans	Universal Pictures	1,149​	1,122​	+27​
The Menu	Searchlight Pictures	860​	840​	+20​
Devotion	Sony Pictures	380​	427​	-47​
Empire of Light	Searchlight Pictures	300​	350​	-50​
Ticket to Paradise	Universal Pictures	102​	105​	-3​
The Banshees of Inisherin	Searchlight Pictures	75​	80​	-5​
TÁR	Focus Features	45​	36​	+9​
Women Talking	United Artists Releasing	8​	8​	​
A Man Called Otto	Sony Pictures	4​	​	New​
Corsage	IFC Films	3​	2​	+​

Catch y'all next year. Thanks for checking out all my posts this year. I appreciate it.

 

[Lootpack]

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I Wanna Flop with Somebody is only at a measley $9.4M. It debuted with $4.7M last weekend. It'll play at the same 3,625 theaters. Boxoffice Pro has the projection at $4.4M. Like Whitney, that seems high.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

ya the Whitney flopped too. Babylon got all the press