For years, the conventional wisdom in New York among strategists and candidates alike has been that in any Democratic primary, the road to victory runs through Black communities.
Then came Zohran Mamdani.
In the race that culminated on Tuesday, Mr. Mamdani forged a new multiracial political coalition to become the likely Democratic nominee for mayor and topple Andrew M. Cuomo, the former governor, who had far more name recognition, financial firepower — and political baggage.
And Mr. Mamdani did so even as he lost many of New York City’s most solidly Black neighborhoods. A New York Times analysis of the results shows that Mr. Cuomo dominated in precincts where at least 70 percent of residents are Black, more than doubling Mr. Mamdani’s support, 59 percent to 26 percent.
The result is a break not just from the parochial politics of New York — Black voters helped deliver the mayoralty to both Eric Adams and his predecessor, Bill de Blasio — but from the nation as a whole. Black voters have served as the Democratic Party’s most important voting bloc this century, elevating Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the party’s last three presidential nominees, oftentimes sanding down the most exuberant instincts of the left.
Most famously, Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina rescued Mr. Biden’s flagging 2020 effort by rallying Black voters before his state’s primary in a bid to thwart Senator Bernie Sanders, though Mr. Clyburn’s backing did not appear to help Mr. Cuomo in this race’s closing stretch.
In a city whose politics have been defined by race-based math, Mr. Mamdani’s success as a democratic socialist upended these traditional calculations and birthed a new and unconventional coalition. It also highlighted tensions between older and more moderate Black voters and the party’s most strident progressive wing, typically anchored by wealthier white voters.
The new dynamic creates a fresh sense of uncertainty for Black leaders in New York who worry about whether their influence will wane at a moment when rising costs, which Mr. Mamdani put at the center of his campaign, are pushing out growing numbers of lifelong Black residents from the city entirely. Currently, 25 percent of voters in the city are Black.
“The politics of the city are shifting,” said the Rev. Rashad Moore, who is Black and the senior pastor of First Baptist Church in Crown Heights.
The “tough part that we’re wrestling with,” he added, “is Zohran won with support of liberal progressive white folk. Are these the same progressive white folk that are pricing us out and we can’t live in the community? That’s the tension.”
Mr. Mamdani, a Queens assemblyman, broke a number of molds en route to becoming the presumptive nominee. He is an immigrant from Uganda and of Indian descent. He would be the city’s first Muslim mayor. And, at 33, he would be its second youngest mayor.
What’s more, he ran the most confident and optimistic campaign of a first-time mayoral candidate in recent memory. An army of volunteers fanned across the city. His campaign used social media and viral videos to appeal to a swath of young voters as he campaigned everywhere from subway cars to halal carts. Within five months of starting his bid, Mr. Mamdani reached the $8 million fund-raising threshold, a cap set by city law.
He carried Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn — the three biggest boroughs — running up the score in progressive strongholds like Astoria and the East Village while generally limiting his losses largely outside Orthodox Jewish communities.
Then came Zohran Mamdani.
In the race that culminated on Tuesday, Mr. Mamdani forged a new multiracial political coalition to become the likely Democratic nominee for mayor and topple Andrew M. Cuomo, the former governor, who had far more name recognition, financial firepower — and political baggage.
And Mr. Mamdani did so even as he lost many of New York City’s most solidly Black neighborhoods. A New York Times analysis of the results shows that Mr. Cuomo dominated in precincts where at least 70 percent of residents are Black, more than doubling Mr. Mamdani’s support, 59 percent to 26 percent.
The result is a break not just from the parochial politics of New York — Black voters helped deliver the mayoralty to both Eric Adams and his predecessor, Bill de Blasio — but from the nation as a whole. Black voters have served as the Democratic Party’s most important voting bloc this century, elevating Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the party’s last three presidential nominees, oftentimes sanding down the most exuberant instincts of the left.
Most famously, Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina rescued Mr. Biden’s flagging 2020 effort by rallying Black voters before his state’s primary in a bid to thwart Senator Bernie Sanders, though Mr. Clyburn’s backing did not appear to help Mr. Cuomo in this race’s closing stretch.
In a city whose politics have been defined by race-based math, Mr. Mamdani’s success as a democratic socialist upended these traditional calculations and birthed a new and unconventional coalition. It also highlighted tensions between older and more moderate Black voters and the party’s most strident progressive wing, typically anchored by wealthier white voters.
The new dynamic creates a fresh sense of uncertainty for Black leaders in New York who worry about whether their influence will wane at a moment when rising costs, which Mr. Mamdani put at the center of his campaign, are pushing out growing numbers of lifelong Black residents from the city entirely. Currently, 25 percent of voters in the city are Black.
“The politics of the city are shifting,” said the Rev. Rashad Moore, who is Black and the senior pastor of First Baptist Church in Crown Heights.
The “tough part that we’re wrestling with,” he added, “is Zohran won with support of liberal progressive white folk. Are these the same progressive white folk that are pricing us out and we can’t live in the community? That’s the tension.”
Mr. Mamdani, a Queens assemblyman, broke a number of molds en route to becoming the presumptive nominee. He is an immigrant from Uganda and of Indian descent. He would be the city’s first Muslim mayor. And, at 33, he would be its second youngest mayor.
What’s more, he ran the most confident and optimistic campaign of a first-time mayoral candidate in recent memory. An army of volunteers fanned across the city. His campaign used social media and viral videos to appeal to a swath of young voters as he campaigned everywhere from subway cars to halal carts. Within five months of starting his bid, Mr. Mamdani reached the $8 million fund-raising threshold, a cap set by city law.
He carried Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn — the three biggest boroughs — running up the score in progressive strongholds like Astoria and the East Village while generally limiting his losses largely outside Orthodox Jewish communities.
