polls have to be taken with a grain of salt...
Gallup conducts 1,000 interviews per day, 350 days out of the year, among both landline and cell phones across the U.S. for its health and well-being survey and political and economic survey. Gallup Daily tracking methodology relies on live interviewers, dual-frame random-digit-dial sampling (which includes landline as well as cellular telephone phone sampling to reach those in cell phone-only households), and uses a multi-call design to reach respondents not contacted on the initial attempt.
Gallup completes 500 cellphone surveys and 500 landline surveys daily, divided evenly between the two topical questionnaires. The population of the U.S. that relies only on cell phones makes 34% of the population.
Not only does not everyone use the phone, or have constant access to their cell phones/all day, but those that actually fill out the surveys usually are the ppl that are emotionally invested in the product(in this case the Obama or Trump). This is similar to Amazon reviews...if you want to simplify it. Most ppl don't write reviews, only the ones that really love it or really hate it. That doesn't take in to account the large majority of ppl that don't bother taking these polls or reviews... which usually leads to some kinda of bias.
Yep...same exact polls that said:
- That Obama was going to beat McCain
- That Obama was going to beat Romney
- And that Hillary would beat Trump in the popular vote
Pretty damn accurate for the most part.
In 2012, Gallup's final election survey had Mitt Romney at 49% and Barack Obama at 48%, compared to the final election results showing Obama with 51.1% to Romney's 47.2%.
Poll shows McCain in 5-point lead over Obama
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent
I think this just shows how much polls change day to day. It also depends on when the poll was conducted.
If they do the polls the day after Obama/Hillary/Trump comes out saying something popular he will immediately get a higher rating.
If they do the polls the day after either say something harmful the polls won't look as good.
if anything this just shows have reactive and over reactionary most ppl are. the fact that there were ppl swaying the DAY BEFORE the election just shows how simple the public really is.
Polling just takes advantage of this fact, so its easy to create these surveys and polls to fit your own narrative.
at the end of every poll there should be a disclaimer saying
*for entertainment purposes only