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Analysis: Russia stands to profit from chaos even if it loses another Mideast ally
From CNN's Matthew Chance
There’s an awkward tension at the heart of the Kremlin’s relationship with the Middle East.
On the one hand, Russian alliances and economic influence there have traditionally been strong. On the other, as one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers, Russia tends to profit when things in the energy-rich region go awry and the markets get spooked.
On the face of it, Russia has so much to lose.
Iran has been a particularly useful “strategic partner” for the Kremlin, not only sharing a disdain for Western values and influence, but also supplying the Russian military with vast squadrons of Shahed aerial drones, enabling the relentless bombardment of Ukraine.
Much of that drone production has moved to Russia. But with Ukraine’s own drones now striking Russian production facilities deep behind the frontlines, that once reliable Iranian supply may be missed.
There’s also a faint but painful sense of humiliation for the Kremlin to have to stand by and watch
another key Middle Eastern ally under ferocious bombardment, unable or unwilling to step in.
A collapse of the Iranian regime would add Iran to the growing Kremlin list of lost Middle Eastern alliances and client states, including Iraq, Libya and Syria.
Moscow has issued strongly worded statements, including that the strikes were creating “unacceptable threats to international security.” But Russia’s supposed alliance with Iran never extended to defending the Islamic Republic and there has been no Kremlin offer of any military support.
And the conflict is opening the door to diplomatic opportunities for a Kremlin that has faced years of international isolation.
Now, the Kremlin has an issue on which it can jointly and productively cooperate with the US, and possibly emerge as an indispensable partner in claming the region.
Read the full analysis.
we just might we watching the start of WWIII
