The U.S. has gone to war against Iran, Tom Nichols writes: “This is not a preemptive war. It is a war for regime change. Many of Iran’s 92 million people want the regime removed. But it is far from certain that this will be the outcome.”
https://theatln.tc/3PfQ6oxK
“‘Success’ is not impossible—if by ‘success’ we mean the fall of the ayatollahs and the rise of a better, more humane, pro-Western government that does not seek to destabilize the Middle East; dominate Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen; and eradicate Israel,” Nichols writes. “But the path to that success is exceedingly narrow and mined with significant hazards. Destroying the regime’s capabilities is relatively easy, but nothing permanent—as Americans learned in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan—is achieved by bouncing rubble and piling up bodies. Destroying the regime itself is a far trickier business; dictatorships have a high pain tolerance, especially when the hapless citizens, not the leaders, bear the brunt of that pain.”
Trump has “not offered a strategy, or identified any conditions that would signal that U.S. goals have been achieved,” Nichols continues. “Yes, he has vowed to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, but beyond that, he seems to be arguing for just inflicting military damage on the regime, on the assumption that enough ordinance on enough targets will weaken the grip of the ayatollahs.”
“Americans have tried this before,” Nichols continues. “America twice had its hands full in Iraq, a nation of 37 million, even with the assistance of several nations.” This time “the target is two and a half times the size of Iraq, America has exactly one openly declared ally in this enterprise, no serious armed rebel force exists in Iran, and no coalition of nations is assembling to march into Tehran.”
“Unfortunately, ways that all this can go wrong are more numerous and more likely,” Nichols writes. Read more at the link in our bio.