Official War With Iran Thread

[BaggerofTea]

He been on TV so long that we need a reminder that Scarborough was a 90s, Neocon house member.

These anglos are mask of psychopaths

 

[King Kreole]

I honestly don't think Iran will negotiate anything when Israel have willingly targetted negotiators and the US bombed them during on going negotiations that Iran was actually conceding. Khamenei Jr had his father, wife and children killed and that is a point of no return IMO.

It's baffling really. That war should have never happened because the US had such a strong hand before all that, it could have gotten and was getting a lot from Iran.

And this is where Israel comes in. Iran knows that Israel (not just the government, but the society as well) has an existential, philosophical problem with Iran being an independent power player in the region. They will continue to aggressively foment turmoil in Iran. So as long as the Iranian governing regime is not a Western stooge aligned with Israeli power, they will be a problem to Israel and the US. So there really is nothing to negotiate over. Either the US sidelines Israel in its Middle Eastern geopolitical posture, or the Iranian regime must fall. There is no going back to the era of belligerent co-existence that Khamenei put in place. Pandora's box has been opened.

 

[mitter]

Trump has never been held accountable for anything in his life. He thinks he fan fukk around and do whatever he wants, create all sorts of problems for others, and then back out without any consequences when it looks like things are getting too messy for him.

I think this will be the first time that he is not going to be let off the hook. He deserves to be taught a lesson, but it is a huge shame that rest of the world will be collateral damage.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

And this is where Israel comes in. Iran knows that Israel (not just the government, but the society as well) has an existential, philosophical problem with Iran being an independent power player in the region. They will continue to aggressively foment turmoil in Iran. So as long as the Iranian governing regime is not a Western stooge aligned with Israeli power, they will be a problem to Israel and the US. So there really is nothing to negotiate over. Either the US sidelines Israel in its Middle Eastern geopolitical posture, or the Iranian regime must fall. There is no going back to the era of belligerent co-existence that Khamenei put in place. Pandora's box has been opened.

Agreed wholeheartedly. The conditions have been set that one has to annihilate or at minimum extremely degrade the other. Both see the other’s existence as an existential threat.

 

[Jmare007]

But if you're Iran, why would you rely on a promise? Even if the other nations agree to it, who's going to stop the US (and especially the current administration) if they decide to renege?

The US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA, also started this war while the Gulf states were begging them not to.

The US has at multiple times attacked Iran during negotiations. If I'm remembering correctly, Solemani was killed in Iraq while on his way to/or from meetings to negotiate.

The US, especially the Trump Administration (both 1 and 2) have proved to be untrustworthy partners and no other nations (whether in Europe or the Gulf) have the power to constrain them if they decide to act unilaterally.

Why would Iran rely on such a promise?

Yeah, basically.

Why would Iran trust the US and Israel to negotiate in good faith after they have attacked twice in the middle of negotiations?

I don't think they'll ever trust a ceasefire deal with Israel and US (with their current leadership), but just as Trump needs whatever bullshyt/made up excuse to claim a W, Iran has always looked for an optics W to stop escalation. I don't believe Iran wants to keep this going for much longer either if they can avoid it.

I think Iran has made their point that it's not only impossible to force regime change from the outside -and that there's no evidence to believe they'll be a regime change from the inside anytime soon- but that the cost of dealing with Iran is either a ground invasion + economic disaster or just plain ol' nuke them

Come on now. We know the deal Trump turned down was better than the deal from 2015.

So yes, getting that, while forcing Iran to use up its weapons stockpiles,losing almost its entire leadership structure and navy is certainly a win for him here.1

The thing about not having any clear plan going into the war gives Trump the excuse to come up with whatever bullshyt to claim victory over this operation.

But at the end of the day, if a deal is signed in the next few days. Nothing of what the U.S accomplished here is a long or even middle term W. The whole world just saw how annoying Iran is to deal with, they keep throwing drones no matter how much of their infrastructure you hit, and that is enough for them to hurt the GCC, close the Strait of Hormuz and cause economic upheaval. From now on, anytime Iran threatens to block the strait, nations are gonna go because they know that can do it effectively and to stop it you need a bunch of people on the ground and a long ass operation no one wants to finance.

Killing the leadership in Iran has the more hardcore people in charge now. Destroying a Navy that was never that important for Iran is not a game changing blow (which is not to say that it is not a blow, of course it's damaging to them) and removing the Supreme Leader that was conservative as fukk could lead to Iran actually making use of their allies and spending money on big shiny toys to bomb their neighbors, instead of just building mostly in house.

And given how Israel and the US have used negotiations before to attack, it wouldn't shock anyone that no matter what is signed, neither side is gonna comply with whatever is agreed upon. The most likely scenario is that both sides just stop bombing each other and start stockpiling ASAP to get prepared for when the other nation decides to do something dumb.

I don't see how any of that is real, non-optics/propaganda W for the US.

 

[Jmare007]

And this is where Israel comes in. Iran knows that Israel (not just the government, but the society as well) has an existential, philosophical problem with Iran being an independent power player in the region. They will continue to aggressively foment turmoil in Iran. So as long as the Iranian governing regime is not a Western stooge aligned with Israeli power, they will be a problem to Israel and the US. So there really is nothing to negotiate over. Either the US sidelines Israel in its Middle Eastern geopolitical posture, or the Iranian regime must fall. There is no going back to the era of belligerent co-existence that Khamenei put in place. Pandora's box has been opened.

I agree on the principle of this, but practically, I do believe Iran would sign a cease fire to stop the current conflict...only for them to prep for war later down the line in a way that they haven't before.

Israel is gonna keep doing what they've been doing for decades so a ceasefire is whatever to them. shyt, they might the only side that can claim a legit W out of this whole thing considering what they are doing in Lebanon

 

[King Kreole]

 

[Pressure]

don't see how any of that is real, non-optics/propaganda W for the US.

It’s easy for us to argue, discuss and judge things from our position.

But it’s important to remember we aren’t the only audience.

Let’s see how it plays out.

 

[Spidey Man]

I agree on the principle of this, but practically, I do believe Iran would sign a cease fire to stop the current conflict...only for them to prep for war later down the line in a way that they haven't before.

Israel is gonna keep doing what they've been doing for decades so a ceasefire is whatever to them. shyt, they might the only side that can claim a legit W out of this whole thing considering what they are doing in Lebanon

Israel will keep doing what they do but they need time to lick their wounds, clean up and rebuild.

Trump would probably learn his lesson and the Pentagon should be smart enough to avoid repeating this mistake for a long time. The next president should be smart enough to avoid sticking a fork in this socket.

Iran gets to take their win and prepare for the next round. Only question would be any potential terrorist attacks but hopefully they would stop them if a deal could be worked out.

 

[88m3]

An hour long video of technical specifications of US planes and bombs, followed by unverifiable claims.

The only kill targets that can be confirmed are open air facilities.

If you want to believe that Iran's war planning didn't account for tunnel entrances being hit, go ahead.

Bunkers and missile cities have been "all destroyed", and Iran's missile capabilities have been "completely degraded". But the strait is still closed, and targets in Israel and the gulf are still being hit at will.

There has been a number of targets that have been hit and confirmed by satellite and video other than "open air facilities"

Iran's attacks/counter attacks have continued to decrease since the start of the war

 

[BK The Great]

Crazy times we’re living in