thatrapsfan
Superstar
AKA the 2016 election deciders. Dems did great in all three, and generally had a good night in the Midwest. Biggest bright spot last night IMO.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin
- Thread starter thatrapsfan
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Dems gotta build back that Midwest firewall. Nothing else really matters.
Yep but Ohio seems to be a challenge. Brown won easily but the map still looks relatively the same. The 3 big metros Cleveland-Akron, Columbus, and Cincinatti are blue with Toledo while Dayton remains competitive. The rest of the state looks a lot like Romney's map even. Cincinatti is a lot more conservative than either Cleveland or Columbus. I wouldn't be surprised though because Kasich even had higher approval rating among Dems than he did among GOP at certain points
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Jhoon
Spontaneous Mishaps and Hijinks
Let’s play Electoral College.
The key to 2020 is winning these 3 states. Whoever the Dems nominate has to basically live in these 3 states and the Midwest for much of the time after the primary.
If you look at Obama's 2008 campaign and even 2012... he spent A LOT of time in the Midwest.
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Record turnout in Wisconsin, including in Milwuakee where low voter turnout was a boon for Trump. Wisconsin election: record-setting turnout in 2018 mid-term
The good news is all those new voters will be very motivated for 2020, seeing that their efforts paid off last night.
mc_brew
#NotMyPresident
i'm still sick that we couldn't get either ohio or florida... unseating trump in 2020 is going to be hella hard without one of those two states... btw, trump didn't win by getting wi, mi, and pa... all he needed was wi... meaning, he doesn't have to win all three of them back, just any one of them.... that's scary...
You can get to 278 electoral votes without Ohio and Florida
Just win WI, PA, MI... then let the chips fall
mc_brew
#NotMyPresident
good point... however, we won the governors mansions in those three states... if we won oh and/or fl, we could put major roadblocks in his way.... that doesn't mean he still couldn't win... it would just be very difficult for him.... now, not so much...
edit: i misread what you posted... yes, you're right we just need to win wis, mi, and pa back in the presidential election... it's definitely doable, but more difficult... hopefully we get a charismatic candidate that campaigns hard in the midwest... wi worries me because scott walker was deeply unpopular there and he still barely lost... i think trump could easily win wi...
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Winning Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania is the easiest route. If they do that, the only way they could lose would be if they lose Nevada.
But Florida is definitely still in the picture especially with the massive enfranchisement of voters that was just voted in. If the Dems win Florida, then they only need any ONE of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, which I think would be basically guaranteed this time around (it took a big fluke and really low turnover for Trump to win all three by such tiny margins).
North Carolina is in play too. Win North Carolina and you could lose any one of the big three and still win. Win North Carolina and Florida and you don't need any of the other three.
Ohio is sort of in play, and winning that would mean that you could lose Pennsylvania, or both Wisconsin/Michigan. But it might be a moot point cause I can't imagine winning Ohio and losing the others. I guess winning Ohio gives you a bit of leeway if one of those other three has some weird fluke.
But Florida is definitely still in the picture especially with the massive enfranchisement of voters that was just voted in. If the Dems win Florida, then they only need any ONE of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, which I think would be basically guaranteed this time around (it took a big fluke and really low turnover for Trump to win all three by such tiny margins).
North Carolina is in play too. Win North Carolina and you could lose any one of the big three and still win. Win North Carolina and Florida and you don't need any of the other three.
Ohio is sort of in play, and winning that would mean that you could lose Pennsylvania, or both Wisconsin/Michigan. But it might be a moot point cause I can't imagine winning Ohio and losing the others. I guess winning Ohio gives you a bit of leeway if one of those other three has some weird fluke.