better offline pusssy 
Peter Thiel sells his Nvidia and Tesla shares. Sign of things to come?
- Thread starter Big Mountain Hélà
- Start date
the bossman
Superstar
Thiel exited Facebook completely after the IPO back in 2012. He also dumped all his own Palantir shares last year. He's not the average investor.
Also Softbank exited to then put money into OpenAI. They're not exiting out of the AI industry completely.
These clickbait articles never tell the full story because it doesn't sound as dramatic.
It could be a million things, he could be rebalancing his portfolio so he’s not overexposed to AI, he could be selling lower basis stock, high net worth individuals sell/ gift low basis stock at the end of the year for taxation purposes. Can’t just jump to conclusions based on this imo
Yeah it just seems like Burry saw something that no one saw ONE TIME and went all in and it worked, That doesn't meani he's some kind Financial sage or Quant genius.
It ain't epstein the whole billionaire class was locked in with him so number 1 that shyt ain't really coming out and if it did all of them knew at least so nothing would happen to them collectively.
I think he just sees the same bubble that everyone else is predicting and selling a taking profits and will reinvest when the bubble pops.
AI will mainly be Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI. They will dominate because they can afford the energy costs and integrate their AI into all their products, phones etc. Others will die out or be super niche
Meta and Apple will continue to play on a smaller level.
Meta and Apple will continue to play on a smaller level.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
I agree except for OpenAI, who I think will implode unless government takes them over. As in we create a Department Of Technology, or just fold it into DOD.
I also think MS/Google/etc will scale their AI advancement down because it's not worth the cost. The best utilization is what they're doing now: search results, entertainment, business tools, etc. Trying to hit mythic AGI levels is something government will take over IMO.
Nkrumah Was Right
Superstar
All you guys who invested in tech stocks - you don't remember the Dot.com boom and bust?
2 Up 2 Down
Veteran
Art Barr
INVADING SOHH CHAMPION
They had a big more than slight crash for nvidia. they don't talk about. After the exposal of those russian hackers who ruined rhe stock market. Plus were exposed by their own group chat for being such trash at trading. They openly said no one can be good at stocks or make money. If they were not manipulating the market. even when they failed outside of their manipulation to cover it up. Which is how they got caught.
The whole stock market being on bullshyt and trying to mount this fake ass comeback. Sohh this may be telling.
fukk all this money making white man bullshyt.
It is a lie.
Give us our fukkin reparations ... chu crackers.
Art Barr
The whole stock market being on bullshyt and trying to mount this fake ass comeback. Sohh this may be telling.
fukk all this money making white man bullshyt.
It is a lie.
Give us our fukkin reparations ... chu crackers.
Art Barr
AI is very dope in ways.
Google search was the first stab at having a computer assist you in very helpful ways that can't be done otherwise. Also, GPS navigation applications. Opened the world up in ways that makes your bubble of perception 1000x larger.
The best usage of AI in my life have to do with Google search type endeavors. I need instructions on how to connect a printer to wi Fi that doesn't have a robust enough screen or buttons.
Gemini sums it up for me at the top of the page. Gives me links to the sites its pulling from. Saves mad time from pouring through Reddit threads and YouTube tutorials.
My guilty pleasure is asking Gemini complex scientifical and philosophical questions. Deep shlt that I be wondering about.
It's scary how intuitive and sharp it is. Essentially it compiles all the literature on the subject in a way that's easy to follow.
I HATE AI "art". I allow it for YouTube thumbnails and little shyt that the average person would struggle to render, but a vid or a song made by AI doesn't make me feel anything positive. I like art cause the artist has done something dope. I marvel at their technique.
Google search was the first stab at having a computer assist you in very helpful ways that can't be done otherwise. Also, GPS navigation applications. Opened the world up in ways that makes your bubble of perception 1000x larger.
The best usage of AI in my life have to do with Google search type endeavors. I need instructions on how to connect a printer to wi Fi that doesn't have a robust enough screen or buttons.
Gemini sums it up for me at the top of the page. Gives me links to the sites its pulling from. Saves mad time from pouring through Reddit threads and YouTube tutorials.
My guilty pleasure is asking Gemini complex scientifical and philosophical questions. Deep shlt that I be wondering about.
It's scary how intuitive and sharp it is. Essentially it compiles all the literature on the subject in a way that's easy to follow.
I HATE AI "art". I allow it for YouTube thumbnails and little shyt that the average person would struggle to render, but a vid or a song made by AI doesn't make me feel anything positive. I like art cause the artist has done something dope. I marvel at their technique.
Controversy
Superstar
AI experts foresee explosive growth as AI scales exponentially, while economists expect slower, bounded gains similar to past tech waves. Both views depend on one key question: how “intelligence” production interacts with “physical” production in the economy.
Intelligence vs. Physical Production
The model divides the economy into:- Intelligence sector: cognitive or virtual tasks AI can scale rapidly.
- Physical sector: real-world tasks requiring human or mechanical action.
Intelligence Saturation
Intelligence saturation—the idea that extra intelligence yields no additional output once physical capacity is fixed. This follows from:- CES production functions where physical and intelligence inputs are complements.
- Evidence of diminishing returns in research, ICT, and generative AI.
Automation & Wages
As AI automates intelligence tasks, labor shifts into the physical sector. Wages follow a hump-shaped path:- Rise early as AI boosts productivity.
- Fall as workers crowd into physical jobs and that sector becomes the bottleneck.
- Recover slowly after full automation, but with diminishing returns.
Long-Run Growth Depends on Substitutability
Two futures emerge:- If sectors are complements (ρ < 0): growth and wages saturate; no singularity.
- If they become substitutes (ρ > 0): output can rise unboundedly, but wages may collapse during the transition.
Policy Implications
To reduce wage declines:- Moderate the speed of automation.
- Invest more in physical capital.
- Consider taxing virtual substitutes or providing wage insurance.
I was part of a recruiting session with a bunch of finance guys in undergrad. They talked about this underperforming problem.
During junior year of my compEng undergrad , I was pleasantly surprised to have representatives of Morgan Stanley, Goldman, and Merrill Lynch trying to poach us. It was surprising because we weren't a Target School. They really wanted quants for some reason
At the time we were being snarky because the tech boom was just beginning and we had lots of options outside of finance. But They broke it down in a way that I had never thought about before.
From what the Goldman guy specifically said in response, was that for high net worth individuals there are different goals for investing beyond raw returns and they pay tooth and nail for them.
There are specific ways you can invest to compliment your existing business income for tax advantages . These investment strategies draw more from your bussinesss holding , than the market returns based on credits, exemptions, and government policy.
- For example there are specific tax advantages for investing in companies that do an incredible amount of r&d or special rebates for investing in an industry the govt deems necessary.
- Or through fancy derivatives you can make your primary business appear to be making losses due to its investments elsewhere. In this particular circumstance your tax liability had you lose a profit much higher, than the losses against the market.
- The general trend here is that a government policy(EPA,IRS,USCIS) makes investing through a fund as a high net worth individual very practical. There are certain ways through the eb-5 program that you can structure an investment too, to gain a green card. Its a task underperforming funds are great for
- Secondarily what you're talking about with high gains is called "beta", but what a lot of these private funds aim for is "alpha". So beyond tax advantage investments they seek alpha which is "noncorrelated gains" using statistical modeling.
- By this i mean that their stock portfolio goes up while the market goes down or the market goes up due to bubbles while the portfolio grows steadily. The objective here is to replace a traditionally safe , but low earning financial vehicle like a municipal Bond or a federal t-bill with a guaranteed , and nonvolatile equity based alternative.
- The significance of seeking alpha is that you're normally supposed to have a well-balanced portfolio of many different types of assets. This diversification occurs so that if there's a crash due to a bubble in one sector , your overall investment balance isn't affected. That's why it's a stupid idea to fill your retirement funds with only tsla, nvdia, microsoft, etc. However, a lot of the things you have to put in a balanced portfolio are very low earning despite their stability( like municipal bonds or UTilities or comodities like gold). These are the types of assets the alpha seeking funds are trying to compete with. Not the general market
- The third thing he explained to us is that some investors are limited by the intent of the money behind them.
- For example, an oil billionaire may die and leave a family trust but say that the trust must be invested in a very specific asset class like oil and gas extraction. Or a university may have their endowment and it must go specifically into renewable energy. Or Rich grandfather might gift to their portfolio to their children under an irrevocable trust stating that grandchildren can only invest in specific types of stocks.
- There are philanthropic organizations like the Rockefeller foundation or the Sorensen foundation who specifically limit their investing based on morals of the company or its founding team's diversity.
- In all of these scenarios the metric that is trying to be beat isn't the general market, but they are trying to beat the specific segment that this portfolio is limited to.
The final goal is for social investing. The general idea is that a fund like the medalion fund or burry's fund has semi-regular gatherings for its members. This is incredibly important, because they're great places to build a book of business or do social networking with people that you wouldnt ordinarily meet.
Think of a tech entrepreneur thats designed a new gopro competitor who needs vc funding. A fund with great networking connects him to a fellow investor who is a patent attorney that needs new clients for utility patents.
So wealthy people will purposely put money into a fund that is not giving them money because the fund is generating money elsewhere through social connections.
As an example ....
Think of a tech entrepreneur thats designed a new gopro competitor who needs vc funding. A fund with great networking connects him to a fellow investor who is a patent attorney that needs new clients for utility patents.
So wealthy people will purposely put money into a fund that is not giving them money because the fund is generating money elsewhere through social connections.
As an example ....
take a bare minimum accredited investor who needs 1 million AUM given to the fund in order to even enter the group. For this hypothetical example , let's say that its an accounting firm executive.
The fund in question earns 6% but the market returns 10% that year. This accountant has technically lost 4% or $40,000 that he could have gotten if he just bought the market through a mutual fund or a sector spyder.
However the same accountant ended up bringing $200,000 from meeting a single mergers and acquisitions attorney who had also invested in the fund and appeared at one of the regular gatherings. Here, he effectively got a profit from the fund of $160,000, despite the fund's market losses.
The fund in question earns 6% but the market returns 10% that year. This accountant has technically lost 4% or $40,000 that he could have gotten if he just bought the market through a mutual fund or a sector spyder.
However the same accountant ended up bringing $200,000 from meeting a single mergers and acquisitions attorney who had also invested in the fund and appeared at one of the regular gatherings. Here, he effectively got a profit from the fund of $160,000, despite the fund's market losses.
So in general, it's very silly for a normal person to try to emulate the investing strategies of a mega fund whether we're talking short funds, quant funds, hedge funds, etc because they don't have the asset restrictions or the net worth to actually make these investing strategies worth it. However, these funds often beat the metrics they're intended to beat or serve other profitable goals beyond beating the market
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