I agree with him. Netflix’s only saving grace is it’s first move advantage and that for some reason it gets pumped in with tech instead of media. Their balance sheet and valuation would look…well like it’s looking this year…if they were correctly categorized as a media company. Their share price benefits from tech multiples which allows them to have more cash on hand, but more people are seeing they are not the same as high growth high margin SaaS and advertising companies.
Re: first mover advantage, that only gets you so far in an industry where studios are pulling content for their own platform or are licensing shows to multiple platforms so you’re no longer the only place to view it. It’s the total opposite of music streaming where all the labels are on all the platforms so there’s no reason to switch from a first mover like Spotify or native app like Apple.
A lot of y’all are content about Netflix’s position because of the subscriber lead they have, but that doesn’t futureproof your business. Facebook had that same lead (esp with IG under their umbrella) yet YouTube and TikTok have them sweating bullets cuz they have effectively lost the next generation of users. Netflix is feeling the pain too, otherwise they would be laying off masses of employees, freezing hiring and pay. They only win in this game if studios/networks decide it’s too costly to keep supplying these standalone apps and go back to putting shyt on Netflix. For Netflix, growth has plateaued and will likely decline and more and more this company is going to be seen as a media company which will annihilate its balance sheet.