BK The Great
Veteran
The effect of Antarctic ice loss from global warming will lead to sea level rise 30% higher than estimated by previous studies, a team at Harvard University has found.
The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the researchers say, will add a full meter of sea level rise to the earlier forecast level of 3.2 meters over a 1,000 year period.
But the researchers pointed out that while some people might dismiss such a long-term estimate out of hand, the additional sea-level rise would also have short-term consequences for communities globally.
The research, published today in Science Advances, looks at a phenomenon known as a water expulsion mechanism, which is when the bedrock that an ice sheet sits on shifts upward as the weight of the ice decreases. “The bedrock sits below sea level so when it lifts, it pushes water from the surrounding area into the ocean, adding to global sea level rise,” the paper explains.
“The magnitude of the effect shocked us,” said Linda Pan, a PhD researcher in earth and planetary science at Harvard’s Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. “Previous studies that had considered the mechanism dismissed it as inconsequential.”
Pan’s fellow graduate student and co-author Evelyn Powell explained the significance of the findings.
“If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed, the most widely cited estimate of the resulting global mean sea level rise that would result is 3.2 meters,” Powell said. “What we've shown is that the water expulsion mechanism will add an additional meter, or 30%, to the total.”
Perhaps more alarmingly, however, were the results of one of Pan and Powell’s simulations which indicated global sea level rise caused by the melting of the ice sheet could increase 20%.
MORE FROM FORBESNobel Prize Winners Demand Climate Action For 'Survival Of All Life'By David Vetter
Previous forecasts have put sea level rise this century at around one foot, or 0.3 meters, according to NOAA. The new findings from Harvard therefore have further grave implications for low lying regions, islands and coastal communities.
The report comes just two days after news that Antarctica’s fourth largest ice shelf, the Larsen C Ice Shelf, is in imminent danger of collapsing.
Click here to view Climate Central’s incredibly detailed interactive global map that shows all areas threatened by sea level rise by 2050.
Jerry X. Mitrovica, Harvard’s Frank B. Baird Jr. Professor of Science in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and a senior author on the paper, said Pan and Powell’s findings would necessitate a reset of previous understandings of the effect of Antarctic ice loss on sea level rise.
“Every published projection of sea level rise due to melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet that has been based on climate modeling, whether the projection extends to the end of this century or longer into the future, is going to have to be revised upward because of their work," said Mitrovica. “Every single one.”
"No matter what scenario we used for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, we always found that this extra one meter of global sea level rise took place," Pan said. "Sea level rise doesn't stop when the ice stops melting. The damage we are doing to our coastlines will continue for centuries.”
The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the researchers say, will add a full meter of sea level rise to the earlier forecast level of 3.2 meters over a 1,000 year period.
But the researchers pointed out that while some people might dismiss such a long-term estimate out of hand, the additional sea-level rise would also have short-term consequences for communities globally.
The research, published today in Science Advances, looks at a phenomenon known as a water expulsion mechanism, which is when the bedrock that an ice sheet sits on shifts upward as the weight of the ice decreases. “The bedrock sits below sea level so when it lifts, it pushes water from the surrounding area into the ocean, adding to global sea level rise,” the paper explains.
“The magnitude of the effect shocked us,” said Linda Pan, a PhD researcher in earth and planetary science at Harvard’s Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. “Previous studies that had considered the mechanism dismissed it as inconsequential.”
Pan’s fellow graduate student and co-author Evelyn Powell explained the significance of the findings.
“If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed, the most widely cited estimate of the resulting global mean sea level rise that would result is 3.2 meters,” Powell said. “What we've shown is that the water expulsion mechanism will add an additional meter, or 30%, to the total.”
Perhaps more alarmingly, however, were the results of one of Pan and Powell’s simulations which indicated global sea level rise caused by the melting of the ice sheet could increase 20%.
MORE FROM FORBESNobel Prize Winners Demand Climate Action For 'Survival Of All Life'By David Vetter
Previous forecasts have put sea level rise this century at around one foot, or 0.3 meters, according to NOAA. The new findings from Harvard therefore have further grave implications for low lying regions, islands and coastal communities.
The report comes just two days after news that Antarctica’s fourth largest ice shelf, the Larsen C Ice Shelf, is in imminent danger of collapsing.
Click here to view Climate Central’s incredibly detailed interactive global map that shows all areas threatened by sea level rise by 2050.
Jerry X. Mitrovica, Harvard’s Frank B. Baird Jr. Professor of Science in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and a senior author on the paper, said Pan and Powell’s findings would necessitate a reset of previous understandings of the effect of Antarctic ice loss on sea level rise.
“Every published projection of sea level rise due to melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet that has been based on climate modeling, whether the projection extends to the end of this century or longer into the future, is going to have to be revised upward because of their work," said Mitrovica. “Every single one.”
"No matter what scenario we used for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, we always found that this extra one meter of global sea level rise took place," Pan said. "Sea level rise doesn't stop when the ice stops melting. The damage we are doing to our coastlines will continue for centuries.”
I don’t see that happening in any way without kicking up too much dust. Pun intended.
