resurrection
By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War
This article written after the Tampa loss is SCATHING to Mike Tomlin and dikk Lebeau.. this is a much more eloquent and fact-based argument saying the same shyt I've been saying about Tomlin for a couple years now. Basically, the Steelers are the WORST in the NFL at 2 things: giving up 4th quarter leads, and playing down to competition. And it's because of dikk Lebeau's defense.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2014/clutch-encounters-week-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 7 (24-17)
Win Probability (4QC/GWD starting with 0:40 left): 0.23
Head Coach: Lovie Smith (21-40 at 4QC and 26-42 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Mike Glennon (3-3 at 4QC and 3-4 overall 4QC/GWD record)
In a week of blowouts, leave it to the Steelers to play down to the competition and battle the winless Buccaneers for 60 minutes. If you've followed the Steelers over the years, this game was a microcosm of the problems that have kept this team in a mediocre state. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times in the first half against a Tampa Bay defense that could barely breathe on Matt Ryan a week ago. There were major discipline issues with the Steelers racking up 13 penalties for 125 yards, including six 15-yard flags. Mike Tomlin's game management was suspect, and Todd Haley's play-calling bordered on gutless at times. dikk LeBeau's defense could not generate pressure and the only takeaway was an interception after Mike Evans pulled up on the route with a groin injury.
You could almost see this one coming after last week's results. Big win in Carolina? Forget about it. Tampa Bay's brutal meltdown in Atlanta? That's a thing of the past. The Buccaneers started Mike Glennon, like they should have done all along, and that helped the offense. The impact wasn't immediate, but Glennon moved the ball very well on all five possessions in the second half. The tall receivers, including Louis Murphy, gave Pittsburgh's small defensive backs some problems. In the second half, Tampa Bay completed six of eight passes on third-and-5 or longer.
Pittsburgh could have extended its 24-17 lead, but decided to get cute with a Roethlisberger punt on fourth-and-3 at the Tampa Bay 37 instead of going for it. The Buccaneers answered early in the fourth quarter with a field goal after Murphy nearly hauled in the tying touchdown. Pittsburgh started its drive with an ill-advised end around that lost 7 yards. Haley actually dialed up a great looking flea-flicker at the right moment, but Antonio Brown dropped the ball. Roethlisberger later overthrew Brown down the field and the Steelers punted.
Pre-snap penalties were a problem for Tampa Bay's inexperienced offense, setting up a second-and-23. Glennon helped overcome that with a 21-yard strike to set up third-and-2. This created a situation that was inexcusable for both teams. The Buccaneers have their quarterback coach, a young Marcus Arroyo, calling the plays because offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford is recovering from a heart procedure. That could explain why the play-calling process is so slow, but Glennon was pissing around at the line for a long time while LeBeau's classic cushion was applied for the best receiver on the field,Vincent Jackson.
Now it's one thing to be worried about getting beat deep, but William Gay can't play this far off Jackson when it's just third-and-2. It's at the 4:28 mark that Gay drops back so far he's no longer in the broadcast picture. The Steelers make no adjustments to this coverage and the Buccaneers are still getting this unbelievable look after nearly 20 seconds:
How can anyone justify that coverage on third-and-2? How can Glennon not see this and do a quick snap to get the ball over there? Tampa Bay never capitalized, but the Steelers found a different way to gift them the first down. Arthur Moats jumped offsides for a 5-yard penalty. Glennon drove the Buccaneers into the red zone, but a first-down pass by running back Bobby Rainey did not work. Glennon couldn't make the big throw either, missing Jackson on fourth-and-10.
Pittsburgh held, but this was far from over with 1:44 to go and Tampa Bay having two timeouts left. After a 2-yard run, Maurkice Pouncey was penalized for a big false start (illegal snap). Roethlisberger threw a pass on second-and-13, but only for 8 yards. That brought up a crucial third-and-5, and an incredible graphic from the FOX broadcast:
Yeah, 3-1 teams usually make the playoffs, but why are you flashing a graphic that has the 2-1 Steelers at 3-1 when they're one stop away from giving the ball back in a 24-20 game? You would think after Denver's incredible one-minute drill in Seattle last week that no one would dare call a game at this point. I know David Diehl was calling the game and probably thought lowly Tampa Bay would concede, but come on. That's a joke.
Then came an equally pathetic effort. Roethlisberger had an excellent game against the 32nd-ranked pass defense. He missed five throws (based on accuracy) at most in the entire game and wasn't sacked in the second half. Let him win the game on third-and-5. What do you really gain by running the ball, punting and taking 40 seconds away from the opponent? If we look at Advanced Football Analytics, assuming the punt is the same regardless of the time it was kicked, the win probability difference between a team in Tampa Bay's situation having 80 seconds versus 40 seconds is about 11 percent. Of course, a team having less time just increases the likelihood that you get beat in the final seconds instead of having a little time to answer any score.
What about the run versus the pass on third-and-5? I looked at plays from 1998-2014 fitting the following criteria to match the situation best:
For his career (137 plays), Roethlisberger has converted third-and-5 into a first down 43.8 percent of the time. On a day where he was sharp and the undermanned Pittsburgh defense wasn't, that sounds like a reasonable estimate of his chances to convert and end the game right there.
Instead of doing what works best, the Steelers ran the ball with Le'veon Bell for a loss of 2 yards. To make matters worse, Brad Wing's punt traveled 29 yards. Glennon only needed to go 46 yards and he had 40 seconds to do it.
Just like when the 2009 Raiders stunned Pittsburgh, it was Louis Murphy time again. He had 92 yards in the quarter and none were bigger than the 41-yard catch-and-run to take the ball down to the Pittsburgh 5. Another giant cushion and a simple post route did the damage. Glennon spiked the ball on first down and this ending felt inevitable.
The bad defense continued. Knowing the only thing that mattered was the touchdown, why would LeBeau leave Gay in single coverage with Jackson in the end zone? Troy Polamalu blitzed, but this is the closest he ever got to the quarterback:
Yeah, that was really productive. Defend the end zone at all costs. The lack of coverage on Jackson in this quarter was mind-boggling. Sure enough, Tampa Bay went right back to that matchup and Jackson beat Gay for the touchdown with seven seconds left. That's the game. No magical lateral play like Brown almost pulled off against the Dolphins last year. Just another Pittsburgh letdown against a team it was expected to beat.
In 2012 I wrote a pretty scathing analysis of LeBeau's career for NBC Sports. Let's revisit that briefly. These endings are nothing new for his defenses, because his scheme is simply inadequate for non-conventional offenses. Sure, given the right personnel it's usually great at stopping the run and confusing quarterbacks when they hang onto the ball too long. But when teams are forced to pass and they spread the field with multiple receivers and run a hurry-up offense, LeBeau's defense loses its advantage of disguising the blitz or staying in a base 3-4 defense. More cornerbacks are needed and the Steelers just don't have the able bodies at that position right now. When the quarterback is getting rid of the ball quickly, the pass rush fails to get there. When you're giving up such a big cushion, these quick passes can lead to many easy completions. We've seen this time and time again, and the difference now is that even the lesser quarterbacks can exploit this defense. Much like Glennon, Brian Hoyer had a big second half in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. It's like when the offense adjusts, Pittsburgh can't.
When LeBeau was defensive coordinator in Cincinnati for the first time, his defense allowed a league-high 27 game-winning drives in that time (1984-1991). Ever since Tomlin retained him in 2007, he has basically left the defense to LeBeau instead of implementing a defense which fits his own background, which is more 4-3 and Tampa-2 scheme. Since 2007, the Steelers have allowed 24 game-winning drives, tied for the fourth most in the league. The problem is, no defense gives up more drives at the end of the game than Pittsburgh, leaving Roethlisberger no real time to answer.
I broke it down two years ago, but here's an update for 2007-2014. This is where the Pittsburgh defense ranks in terms of game-winning drives allowed where the winning points came in the final two minutes or overtime.
Steelers: Game-Winning Drives Allowed, 2007-2014
Last 2:00Last 1:00Last 0:40Last 0:15OT DrivesLast 0:40 + OT
12 (T-1st)11 (1st)11 (1st)9 (1st)5 (T-3rd)16 (1st)
Time is based on remaining time when winning points were scored
Overtime aside, it's almost a clean sweep for the Steelers. They have watched opponents score the game-winning points in the final 15 seconds of nine games since 2007, two more than any other team.
Since winning Super Bowl XLIII (which also included a blown lead of 13 points in the fourth quarter), the Steelers have picked up another nasty habit: playing down to the competition.
This Tampa Bay loss is only the third time in Roethlisberger's career that he has lost a home game in which he was favored by more than seven points (-7.5 on Sunday). In each of those games he led the offense to 24 points, but the Steelers lost 27-24 to a bad Oakland team (2009) and 34-24 to a San Diego (2012) team that entered with a 4-8 record.
Does it seem like this happens a lot to Pittsburgh? I looked at spread data on Pro-Football-Reference and used games from 2009-2014 in which a team was at least a five-point favorite against a team that finished the season with a non-winning record. That way we eliminate some of the early-season guesswork and also don't penalize a team for losing to someone really good like the 2012 Patriots against the 49ers. I only looked at the teams with at least 18 such games, which basically gives us the best 16 teams in the league in recent years.
The Steelers have the second-worst record straight up and the worst record against the spread. The eight straight-up losses are only surpassed by New Orleans (10). You can move the goal posts if you want, but the end result will be the same. Tomlin loves to talk about standards, but the standards Pittsburgh has apparently set in his tenure is to be the league's top team at losing games in the final seconds and failing to take care of the opponents they were expected to beat.
Tomlin should be glad Mark Davis doesn't own the Steelers, because he would be getting a phone call very soon.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2014/clutch-encounters-week-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 7 (24-17)
Win Probability (4QC/GWD starting with 0:40 left): 0.23
Head Coach: Lovie Smith (21-40 at 4QC and 26-42 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Mike Glennon (3-3 at 4QC and 3-4 overall 4QC/GWD record)
In a week of blowouts, leave it to the Steelers to play down to the competition and battle the winless Buccaneers for 60 minutes. If you've followed the Steelers over the years, this game was a microcosm of the problems that have kept this team in a mediocre state. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times in the first half against a Tampa Bay defense that could barely breathe on Matt Ryan a week ago. There were major discipline issues with the Steelers racking up 13 penalties for 125 yards, including six 15-yard flags. Mike Tomlin's game management was suspect, and Todd Haley's play-calling bordered on gutless at times. dikk LeBeau's defense could not generate pressure and the only takeaway was an interception after Mike Evans pulled up on the route with a groin injury.
You could almost see this one coming after last week's results. Big win in Carolina? Forget about it. Tampa Bay's brutal meltdown in Atlanta? That's a thing of the past. The Buccaneers started Mike Glennon, like they should have done all along, and that helped the offense. The impact wasn't immediate, but Glennon moved the ball very well on all five possessions in the second half. The tall receivers, including Louis Murphy, gave Pittsburgh's small defensive backs some problems. In the second half, Tampa Bay completed six of eight passes on third-and-5 or longer.
Pittsburgh could have extended its 24-17 lead, but decided to get cute with a Roethlisberger punt on fourth-and-3 at the Tampa Bay 37 instead of going for it. The Buccaneers answered early in the fourth quarter with a field goal after Murphy nearly hauled in the tying touchdown. Pittsburgh started its drive with an ill-advised end around that lost 7 yards. Haley actually dialed up a great looking flea-flicker at the right moment, but Antonio Brown dropped the ball. Roethlisberger later overthrew Brown down the field and the Steelers punted.
Pre-snap penalties were a problem for Tampa Bay's inexperienced offense, setting up a second-and-23. Glennon helped overcome that with a 21-yard strike to set up third-and-2. This created a situation that was inexcusable for both teams. The Buccaneers have their quarterback coach, a young Marcus Arroyo, calling the plays because offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford is recovering from a heart procedure. That could explain why the play-calling process is so slow, but Glennon was pissing around at the line for a long time while LeBeau's classic cushion was applied for the best receiver on the field,Vincent Jackson.
Now it's one thing to be worried about getting beat deep, but William Gay can't play this far off Jackson when it's just third-and-2. It's at the 4:28 mark that Gay drops back so far he's no longer in the broadcast picture. The Steelers make no adjustments to this coverage and the Buccaneers are still getting this unbelievable look after nearly 20 seconds:
How can anyone justify that coverage on third-and-2? How can Glennon not see this and do a quick snap to get the ball over there? Tampa Bay never capitalized, but the Steelers found a different way to gift them the first down. Arthur Moats jumped offsides for a 5-yard penalty. Glennon drove the Buccaneers into the red zone, but a first-down pass by running back Bobby Rainey did not work. Glennon couldn't make the big throw either, missing Jackson on fourth-and-10.
Pittsburgh held, but this was far from over with 1:44 to go and Tampa Bay having two timeouts left. After a 2-yard run, Maurkice Pouncey was penalized for a big false start (illegal snap). Roethlisberger threw a pass on second-and-13, but only for 8 yards. That brought up a crucial third-and-5, and an incredible graphic from the FOX broadcast:
Yeah, 3-1 teams usually make the playoffs, but why are you flashing a graphic that has the 2-1 Steelers at 3-1 when they're one stop away from giving the ball back in a 24-20 game? You would think after Denver's incredible one-minute drill in Seattle last week that no one would dare call a game at this point. I know David Diehl was calling the game and probably thought lowly Tampa Bay would concede, but come on. That's a joke.
Then came an equally pathetic effort. Roethlisberger had an excellent game against the 32nd-ranked pass defense. He missed five throws (based on accuracy) at most in the entire game and wasn't sacked in the second half. Let him win the game on third-and-5. What do you really gain by running the ball, punting and taking 40 seconds away from the opponent? If we look at Advanced Football Analytics, assuming the punt is the same regardless of the time it was kicked, the win probability difference between a team in Tampa Bay's situation having 80 seconds versus 40 seconds is about 11 percent. Of course, a team having less time just increases the likelihood that you get beat in the final seconds instead of having a little time to answer any score.
What about the run versus the pass on third-and-5? I looked at plays from 1998-2014 fitting the following criteria to match the situation best:
- Final four minutes of the fourth quarter
- Offense leading by 1-8 points
- Third-and-5 only
For his career (137 plays), Roethlisberger has converted third-and-5 into a first down 43.8 percent of the time. On a day where he was sharp and the undermanned Pittsburgh defense wasn't, that sounds like a reasonable estimate of his chances to convert and end the game right there.
Instead of doing what works best, the Steelers ran the ball with Le'veon Bell for a loss of 2 yards. To make matters worse, Brad Wing's punt traveled 29 yards. Glennon only needed to go 46 yards and he had 40 seconds to do it.
Just like when the 2009 Raiders stunned Pittsburgh, it was Louis Murphy time again. He had 92 yards in the quarter and none were bigger than the 41-yard catch-and-run to take the ball down to the Pittsburgh 5. Another giant cushion and a simple post route did the damage. Glennon spiked the ball on first down and this ending felt inevitable.
The bad defense continued. Knowing the only thing that mattered was the touchdown, why would LeBeau leave Gay in single coverage with Jackson in the end zone? Troy Polamalu blitzed, but this is the closest he ever got to the quarterback:
Yeah, that was really productive. Defend the end zone at all costs. The lack of coverage on Jackson in this quarter was mind-boggling. Sure enough, Tampa Bay went right back to that matchup and Jackson beat Gay for the touchdown with seven seconds left. That's the game. No magical lateral play like Brown almost pulled off against the Dolphins last year. Just another Pittsburgh letdown against a team it was expected to beat.
In 2012 I wrote a pretty scathing analysis of LeBeau's career for NBC Sports. Let's revisit that briefly. These endings are nothing new for his defenses, because his scheme is simply inadequate for non-conventional offenses. Sure, given the right personnel it's usually great at stopping the run and confusing quarterbacks when they hang onto the ball too long. But when teams are forced to pass and they spread the field with multiple receivers and run a hurry-up offense, LeBeau's defense loses its advantage of disguising the blitz or staying in a base 3-4 defense. More cornerbacks are needed and the Steelers just don't have the able bodies at that position right now. When the quarterback is getting rid of the ball quickly, the pass rush fails to get there. When you're giving up such a big cushion, these quick passes can lead to many easy completions. We've seen this time and time again, and the difference now is that even the lesser quarterbacks can exploit this defense. Much like Glennon, Brian Hoyer had a big second half in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. It's like when the offense adjusts, Pittsburgh can't.
When LeBeau was defensive coordinator in Cincinnati for the first time, his defense allowed a league-high 27 game-winning drives in that time (1984-1991). Ever since Tomlin retained him in 2007, he has basically left the defense to LeBeau instead of implementing a defense which fits his own background, which is more 4-3 and Tampa-2 scheme. Since 2007, the Steelers have allowed 24 game-winning drives, tied for the fourth most in the league. The problem is, no defense gives up more drives at the end of the game than Pittsburgh, leaving Roethlisberger no real time to answer.
I broke it down two years ago, but here's an update for 2007-2014. This is where the Pittsburgh defense ranks in terms of game-winning drives allowed where the winning points came in the final two minutes or overtime.
Steelers: Game-Winning Drives Allowed, 2007-2014
Last 2:00Last 1:00Last 0:40Last 0:15OT DrivesLast 0:40 + OT
12 (T-1st)11 (1st)11 (1st)9 (1st)5 (T-3rd)16 (1st)
Time is based on remaining time when winning points were scored
Overtime aside, it's almost a clean sweep for the Steelers. They have watched opponents score the game-winning points in the final 15 seconds of nine games since 2007, two more than any other team.
Since winning Super Bowl XLIII (which also included a blown lead of 13 points in the fourth quarter), the Steelers have picked up another nasty habit: playing down to the competition.
This Tampa Bay loss is only the third time in Roethlisberger's career that he has lost a home game in which he was favored by more than seven points (-7.5 on Sunday). In each of those games he led the offense to 24 points, but the Steelers lost 27-24 to a bad Oakland team (2009) and 34-24 to a San Diego (2012) team that entered with a 4-8 record.
Does it seem like this happens a lot to Pittsburgh? I looked at spread data on Pro-Football-Reference and used games from 2009-2014 in which a team was at least a five-point favorite against a team that finished the season with a non-winning record. That way we eliminate some of the early-season guesswork and also don't penalize a team for losing to someone really good like the 2012 Patriots against the 49ers. I only looked at the teams with at least 18 such games, which basically gives us the best 16 teams in the league in recent years.
The Steelers have the second-worst record straight up and the worst record against the spread. The eight straight-up losses are only surpassed by New Orleans (10). You can move the goal posts if you want, but the end result will be the same. Tomlin loves to talk about standards, but the standards Pittsburgh has apparently set in his tenure is to be the league's top team at losing games in the final seconds and failing to take care of the opponents they were expected to beat.
Tomlin should be glad Mark Davis doesn't own the Steelers, because he would be getting a phone call very soon.
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Fukk dem hoes.
This is a bad spot for the Squeelers. dikk is gonna have to beat it n/h if they lose this one