Sportsbetting

[CJ]

Today was another perfect example to my previous post.

Bulls beat Heat straight up the other night, so what does Vegas do? They put Heat -12 right up again. Public HAMMERS Bulls off the bat. Saw it as high as 70%. Line not only sticks but moves toward -13. Bulls still get action to close around 60%. I gladly took the Heat -12/-12.5 and -13. Didn't have to sweat it.

On the flipside, books put up same line for GSW, and again get hammered, probably hoping those that didnt jump on Heat will now jump on Spurs thinking it will be a two fave cover night. What's going on now? GSW whomping the Spurs. Moneyline closed at -290 or something like that and was +310 by halftime, lol.

"If it looks too good to be true........."

 

[Rick Roller 10]

Fixed

If you gamble, as long as you know how to cut off your losses and still be able to pay off your bills etc. It's not a bad thing.

If you use your rent money to gamble

it also takes the fun outta the sport and makes you question every little call etc.

 

[Bomberman]

Took a year off. Started with 1K at the Superbowl, 500 on Ravens ML/500 on Ravens +3.5.

Got up to 11.8K as of 2 weeks ago.

Few rules, use sites like pregame to see where the bet% is going. Alot of my wins were watching spreads that didn't move when 60% and over were on one particular side. That let me know something was fishy and I would play the opposite. Same goes for when a spread drops when majority is on it (reverse line movement) - it's not always full proof, but more often than not you'll be on the right side of a underdog cover.

Baseball/Hockey are a little easier as far as not having to worry about a spread; however, the juice on a favourite is always terrible (ie: Red sox the other night vs Twins -265 for Buchholz, Boston loses STRAIGHT UP). Try to find value plays.

In all honesty, sign up to a book that has live betting, this has been a key to alot of my success so far. NBA is a perfect example. All these "favorites" at home have closed at like -200 and worse, as high as -550/-650/-700 for Heat, Spurs and Thunder.

Not even 5 minutes into these games have they come out flat and the line drops to -150 and most cases by the 4th all games are pretty much even ML (like GSW/SAS, CHI/MIA and yesterday's OKC/MEM), now you have achance to grab a better spread or better moneyline odds, which saves you from having to put up as much money.

Also, don't chase, unless you're actually playing a chase system but know when to go for it. Don't bet on stupid stuff you haven't researched unless it's just small money for random degenerate action.

Bet what you can afford to lose, shyt can get addictive and quickly.

I find NCAA/NBA to be the easiest, with MLB being a bankroll killer (although playing totals can do very well.) Just my opinion though.

Quick clarification on the bolded, but by "drop" do you mean when the spread goes from -10 to -9, or from -9 to -10?

So in the case of GSW, the majority was on GSW and the spread went from -8 to -7.5 SA. Going with the GSW then proved to be the correct move, is that what you're implying?

 

[dm3]

anyone need a solid local book in ny, hit me..got a reliable local with a nice site

 

[ryderldb]

oh that's not gambling breh.... that's like a lil side hobby for you. With those amounts and betting style you could have the same luck if you went to the corner and guessed how many light blue cars would roll down the street.

enjoy.

that's cool breh. no need for explanation... having a lil side hobby is always good.

Some people play those lil machines with the mechanical arm at the grocery store that goes down to get those teddy bears.... cheap and fulfills that level of gambling as well....

 

[USSInsiders]

Today was another perfect example to my previous post.

Bulls beat Heat straight up the other night, so what does Vegas do? They put Heat -12 right up again. Public HAMMERS Bulls off the bat. Saw it as high as 70%. Line not only sticks but moves toward -13. Bulls still get action to close around 60%. I gladly took the Heat -12/-12.5 and -13. Didn't have to sweat it.

On the flipside, books put up same line for GSW, and again get hammered, probably hoping those that didnt jump on Heat will now jump on Spurs thinking it will be a two fave cover night. What's going on now? GSW whomping the Spurs. Moneyline closed at -290 or something like that and was +310 by halftime, lol.

"If it looks too good to be true........."

Good post but fading the public should never be a 100% method in every situation. I'm sure you know that, but just saying it as a warning to people reading your post.

Regardless of how many people do or don't make the same play, it's always about making the right play. I've seen many wannabe sharps get murdered from just fading, fading, fading.

Best time to fade is definitely during primetime action like tournaments, playoffs, etc. because that's when the most novice bettors tend to show up. Books throw out stupid lines all the time to fool people.

 

[TeFLoNBoMBz]

thread should be stickied in the coliseum

 

[USSInsiders]

if you are in america, i wouldnt use any offshore books right now. the doj can come knocking any day, which would mean your money tied up there is as good as gone

Tell'em about Legendz and Bet Islands b

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

Abolut always gives us so much knowledge. Definitely appreciate it.


For the past 2 months I've been using March Madness, the NBA and a little bit of MLB to practice for the football season and next years college basketball and nba seasons. I put 50 dollars in my account in march and built a solid bank roll. I have been betting 5s, 10s, 20s, 30s and an occasional 40 or 50, just trying to build discipline so that one bet doesn't affect me (Apparently you should only be betting 2 to 5 percent of your bank roll so that when you go on a losing streak you don't lose everything.) and just focus on picking 52.5 percent winners and up. The thing I've realized is that if I can't turn 50 dollars in to 500 dollars just picking good games then I shouldn't be betting. Besides a few bad bets where I decided to go 90 percent in and lost I'm doing pretty good and have been building solidly. A lot of times in the past I've noticed I'd bet big I noticed I just didn't have the discipline or I wasn't really recording what went in and out so this practice is good for me.


My first real betting experience was at Delaware Park Casino doing football parlays so I had to be perfect in order to win anything but now I'm taking a more structured approach (and not doing sucker bets anymore, well I'll still throw an occasional parlay tix but it won't be the basis of all my betting) I still need to work on limiting my plays.

Since Monday I'm 22-10. (68 percent).




One good bet as far as NBA is watching the game and live betting. Predicting when a team will come back or when a team who's ahead will quit on a game will make you some good money. I bet on the Bulls + 43.5 tonight. lol


I definitely had Golden State Money line and Golden State + 7.5 tonight. Normally when I bet Underdog Money Lines I also bet the spread of the underdog for Double so I still make a profit if the Underdog wins. I'm still pissed from 2 bets this week. I had Memphis ML Sunday when they gave up that lead to the thunder and I had Golden State ML in Game 1. Those two bets would have been good for me.

 

[USSInsiders]

Quick clarification on the bolded, but by "drop" do you mean when the spread goes from -10 to -9, or from -9 to -10?

So in the case of GSW, the majority was on GSW and the spread went from -8 to -7.5 SA. Going with the GSW then proved to be the correct move, is that what you're implying?

He's talking about sharp money.

Let's say the Heat are playing Bulls Friday night. Line opens Miami as 6.5 chalk. The public pound the minus 6.5 and because that side receives so much action, line moves to 7.

Reverse line movement is when sharp money comes in on "unpopular" side and the line moves the other direction. People see this as an indication that sharp or a big time syndicate knows something everyone else doesn't know because even though everyone is on the public side, the line actually moved in favor of the public.

Every book is different, but the line tended to go down because Golden State has received a lot of action. They're the Cindarella of the NBA playoffs right now. Everybody is on them.

If I recall correctly, they've been 9-0 ATS as of late.

 

[Hammer]

anyone need a solid local book in ny, hit me..got a reliable local with a nice site

feds

 

[USSInsiders]

feds

@dm3 can you get me down for 20 dimes on Columbia pls

 

[MikelArteta]

I agree with live betting, yesterday at one point it was -12.5 warriors.

I had warriors ml on a live bet and then threw some chalk on spurs plus 12.5

Won both bets.

I also like quarter betting If an away team is up at halftime I pound the home team quarter spread

sent from royalty via tapatalk

 

[CJ]

Good post but fading the public should never be a 100% method in every situation. I'm sure you know that, but just saying it as a warning to people reading your post.

Regardless of how many people do or don't make the same play, it's always about making the right play. I've seen many wannabe sharps get murdered from just fading, fading, fading.

Best time to fade is definitely during primetime action like tournaments, playoffs, etc. because that's when the most novice bettors tend to show up. Books throw out stupid lines all the time to fool people.

Yes, in no way did I mean fading the public/majority percentage. What I meant was looking out for lines that don't budge or go the opposite way when public/majority is on it. If the line moves with the public% than all is well as books are essentially admitting they undercut themselves and will move the line to find that sweet spot for even action. Fading the public as a whole can kill you, as you know too. I'm sure you've seen those NCAA Saturdays where all bets with 75% and greater support won, books got killed since squares/sharps both were on the right side

Quick clarification on the bolded, but by "drop" do you mean when the spread goes from -10 to -9, or from -9 to -10?

So in the case of GSW, the majority was on GSW and the spread went from -8 to -7.5 SA. Going with the GSW then proved to be the correct move, is that what you're implying?

He's talking about sharp money.

Let's say the Heat are playing Bulls Friday night. Line opens Miami as 6.5 chalk. The public pound the minus 6.5 and because that side receives so much action, line moves to 7.

Reverse line movement is when sharp money comes in on "unpopular" side and the line moves the other direction. People see this as an indication that sharp or a big time syndicate knows something everyone else doesn't know because even though everyone is on the public side, the line actually moved in favor of the public.

Every book is different, but the line tended to go down because Golden State has received a lot of action. They're the Cindarella of the NBA playoffs right now. Everybody is on them.

If I recall correctly, they've been 9-0 ATS as of late.

Yep, that's what I meant in the bolded.

 

[CJ]

I agree with live betting, yesterday at one point it was -12.5 warriors.

I had warriors ml on a live bet and then threw some chalk on spurs plus 12.5

Won both bets.

I also like quarter betting If an away team is up at halftime I pound the home team quarter spread

sent from royalty via tapatalk

Nice breh, I wanted to see how Spurs came out. Took them -8.5 2H with the under 103.5. Parlayed both, was a good night (well, other than that heart breaking Leafs loss)