Sportsbetting

MikelArteta

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Goatganda the pearl of Africa
i majored in stats as well. me and a couple buddies tried to come up with a football formula over the course of 4-5 years. only sports we could beat the market with our own origination were baseball and college basketball. i stopped trying to beat football when i realized i cant do it, i dont have the resources to do it on my own. i put the resources i do have, which are the actual winning bettors betting into our lines, and use that to my advantage. thats how i deal with betting football anymore. billy walters whacks away at something? ill bet it at at a slower moving book. the fukking chinaman team is firing on some nba? ill bet it at a slower moving book. i cant beat football or the nba on my own. it takes all the headaches away from worrying about handicapping football, saves tons of time, and we can use some of that time to pry away at the smaller market, beatable sports. football/nba isnt beatable longterm for anyone without extensive resources (ie six figures worth of data/quant equipment and teams to sort through that material)

absolut has been feeding us for years :salute:
 

BigSteve

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Every time I see a paragraph or longer post from Abso, I feel like I need to light a cigarette and pour up a glass of scotch. It's the closest thing to sitting in a sports book in Vegas with a cigar that The Coli has.
 

Marvel

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You mind sharing that formula?

I went to Wharton and statistics was probably one of my favorite classes.

I agree, you don't really learn from betting coli cash because it just doesn't hurt when you lose. You have to use your real cash to feel the burn from losing, it makes you better.

:myman: My brother went to Michigan (Ann Arbor). I went to Texas (Austin)

I can't share the formula but I can give you some clues.

In football, I use a stack ranking system based on various important statistics in football which are discussed every Saturday and Sunday.


I use those stats and weight them team vs team. home and away. These include team related stats. I also have my own system of power ranking which works very well for college. I am fortunate to have a strong knowledge of college football...its my best sport by far, than NFL and soccer.

Over the last year, I got better with understanding Vegas' mentality with spreads especially in football. I usually play the spread and do occasional money lines and over/under. Vegas knows people like to play favorites.

I usually start off the football season slow because of the lack of information/stats on teams. So I take my time early on and do A LOT of studying. By week 4, I implement my system and it usually gets better from there on out.

You also have to pay attention to trends. ex: East coast teams don't usually do well on early West coast road games in the NFL. You always want to be on the favorable side of a probability.


I love college football because they A LOT of games to choose from every week. This makes you very good options for parlays. I usually create by own spreads for NFL and NCAAF games before Vegas puts their lines out. When the lines come out....I look closely at the ones that appear out of wack like :leon:

Basketball is very hard to play sometimes, especially spreads. There is a method to it, there a few sharps that are very good at it. Team totals and over/under are usually the best plays.
 

MikelArteta

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Goatganda the pearl of Africa
Why don't some of you experts post your daily bets so I can copy them and :eat:

I have in the betting thread

I rarely do game bets for nba anymore.

I've been killing or for quarter spreads this past week.

A team that covers the first and second quarter spread ex indy did yesterday will lose the third quarter spread if they are up big.


sent from royalty via tapatalk
 

MikelArteta

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Goatganda the pearl of Africa
:myman: My brother went to Michigan (Ann Arbor). I went to Texas (Austin)

I can't share the formula but I can give you some clues.

In football, I use a stack ranking system based on various important statistics in football which are discussed every Saturday and Sunday.


I use those stats and weight them team vs team. home and away. These include team related stats. I also have my own system of power ranking which works very well for college. I am fortunate to have a strong knowledge of college football...its my best sport by far, than NFL and soccer.

Over the last year, I got better with understanding Vegas' mentality with spreads especially in football. I usually play the spread and do occasional money lines and over/under. Vegas knows people like to play favorites.

I usually start off the football season slow because of the lack of information/stats on teams. So I take my time early on and do A LOT of studying. By week 4, I implement my system and it usually gets better from there on out.

You also have to pay attention to trends. ex: East coast teams don't usually do well on early West coast road games in the NFL. You always want to be on the favorable side of a probability.


I love college football because they A LOT of games to choose from every week. This makes you very good options for parlays. I usually create by own spreads for NFL and NCAAF games before Vegas puts their lines out. When the lines come out....I look closely at the ones that appear out of wack like :leon:

Basketball is very hard to play sometimes, especially spreads. There is a method to it, there a few sharps that are very good at it. Team totals and over/under are usually the best plays.

College football and college basketball(non conference ganes) are the best to me.

College football esp, the one thing that I hate I'd big spreads a team covering then the scrub backups come in and your screwed

sent from royalty via tapatalk
 

thaKEAF

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Wait..I just checked this shyt out.

Just playing around I put 50 on the Grizz winning by 7-9 points over OKC tonight. My return would be 600.00 if it happened? :wtf: How do you get your moolah? How hard is the tax hit?
 

yoyoyo1

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is serena +250 at the french open a good look :ninja2:

NO - only because I see it at +270 other places. So get that +270. If you can't then +250 is fine.

If this was another tourney she'd be +125 - b/c this is French is much higher. Keep in mind this tourney is where the upsets happen. Serena has won the French ONCE. Even with her dominance she still gets frustrated, its just not an American surface. But since the last US Open she's lost twice in possibly 30-40 matches, the [in]famous Sloane match and another final vs Azarenka (she's lost such few times I didn't even have to look that up :smugbiden:) so this is the best condition she's EVER been in so yes, do it, it's the best price you're ever gonna get for her at a slam.




I hope you got on this

I'm fukking banging my head against the wall over here

She has made EASY work of all the top players since this post in warm-up tourneys and she's down to +130

:snoop: i'm not lying about this banging my head against the wall shyt either

it was light but it still counts :avb::avb::avb::avb:

so much value and i fukking forgot :snoop:
 
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