So I'm listening to the latest Millman podcast. I usually don't do it cause they talk about basketball, football and stuff, but I like listening to the "lifestyle" ones. Talk about a circlejerk each time though
I find it hilarious. Talking about economics degrees from Wesleyan and algorithms and formulas and THIS GUY WAS WORKING SO HARD HE DIDNT SEE HIS FAMILY FOR EIGHT MONTHS. Some of the stuff really made me laugh.
And how average joes think they have an edge cause they like to watch football. It's like betting on coin flips once you introduce the point spread as well. Of course I have respect for those that succeed but I have no respect for people who try to beat a random ass game like football.
When I do soccer and tennis and boxing, granted it's with much smaller amounts of money, but you don't worry about point spreads or parity or any of that nonsense. Will Manchester United beat Stoke at home? Yes, probably 9 times out of 10. That easy. Just follow the sport, have a good grasp, look at home/away records, make sure there are no trends like a team thats favorite while they haven't won in 5 games, and just make the choice. And there are 50 leagues around the world you can analyze. Same for tennis for the most part.
I also love how they talk about
~~VEGAS~~ in mythical terms but in reality it has about 5% the volume and choice than anywhere else in the world, not to mention you'd be foolish to play their odds when compared to what's available online.
I really don't see how it can be complicated, and after a steep learning and impulse curve I think I've got it down by now. Slowly but surely. Strictly by feel. Have fun with those mathematical models though.
REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT!!!