im not sure tbh
the country can't get worse, it's getting better. unemployment was 10, and now its in the 6s, and thatll only go down with holiday hiring. and next year we'll have the vaccine and shyt will open up, and biden will take credit for all of that
The unemployment rate is seasonally adjusted so holiday hiring is a null point.
Good unemployment number but we are still up there with the historic worse.
Unemployment Rate
& in terms of "permanent" unemployment, we are still above the 08' apex.
Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)
I think assuming a vaccine is coming is just a bit too confident. I'm aware we have some of the most brilliant minds & "unlimited" recourses but I am personally not sold until the p2/3 data comes out.
My TDRL: 2021 will give us more color of the 5-year outlook of the country/world than 2020 could ever give us, & people should be prepared for a "worse" & "best" case as equally possible. A lot of people are getting wild up around massive beats on unemployment data without understanding context, or even understand a lot of them are on a MoM basis
I'm up 50%
"What were your down last month"
"50%"
"Oh so you down 25% from the jump"
Like this chart give you the feeling we doing GREAT
United States Personal Spending | 1959-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar
You actually do the math we still -6% from 2019 year end
I'm not trying to be doom & gloom but there is a complete lack of discounting of the possibility that things don't go 100% perfect, and that's scary.