http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tanking-101-falcons-failed-to-do-the-smart-thing/27508/
The Atlanta Falcons face a make-or-break situation: the Washington Redskins, down a point, seconds left line up to go for two.
Kirk Cousins drops back to pass, sees Pierre Garcon, throws it … but it’s deflected by Desmond Trufant! The Falcons win! The Georgia Dome crowd goes wild! Go Falcons!
That’s how it went down, but should it have?
A better scenario, from Atlanta’s standpoint, would have gone like this: Cousins takes the snap and Trufant, acting on instructions from coach Mike Smith on the sidelines, stumbles to a knee and watches helplessly as Garcon scores the winning conversion.
Ah, but this isn’t the NBA, where they make backroom decisions to tank for better draft position, it’s the NFL, where you go wire to wire and that’s that.
It’s admirable.
Whether it’s smart, remains to be seen.
Consider the Falcons, with a loss Sunday, would have fallen to 3-11. Washington would have improved to 4-10.
And the Falcons, with sole possession of the second-worst record in the NFL, could then play Matt Ryan only for the first halves of the next two games, letting two-year backup Dominique Davis (seven career attempts) get some much needed experience.
It’d also save wear and tear on Ryan, who surely isn’t learning much he didn’t know over the final two games of a nothing season. And it’d also make the Falcons even more likely to lose their last two games (at San Francisco, host Carolina).
Instead, they’ll go all out. They’ll play Ryan, they’ll play their starters. They might even win vs. Carolina in Week 17. And when it’s all said and done, they’ll pick somewhere between 3rd and 9th in each round of the draft – when they could have guaranteed themselves second.
Ah, no big deal, you say. What’s the difference?
For argument’s sake, lets say that Atlanta finishes 5-11 and drafts sixth overall and in every round that follows.
The difference between No. 2 and No. 6 on the famed “Draft Value Chart” (which may or may not be valid in todays NFL), is the difference between 2,600 “points” and 1,600 “points” – and that 1,000 points is equivalent to the No. 16 overall pick in the draft.
That’s worth tanking for, is it not?
Now add the points you lose out in the second round (40), third round (20) and fourth round (16) – that adds up to a mid-fourth round pick.
Here are the No. 2 picks from 2005-2012
There's a big difference, folks, and that's if you use the picks. Trade value is also a bonus.
So, for the sake of “finishing strong” and “playing hard,” the Falcons are going to miss out on significant draft value – draft value they could use, after a bad season that came two years after trading away a lot of draft picks for Julio Jones.
In the process, they also expose franchise veteran players like Ryan and Roddy White to needless hits, while gaining … what, exactly? The Falcons' core will be more or less intact for another couple of years; what they need is as much young talent as they can add to it. Now, they'll add a little less.
The NFL is much stronger than the NBA when it comes to this; they demand that their teams not even give off a whiff of tanking. And to be fair, the NBA teams have a lot more to gain from a high pick -- one superstar can get you into the finals, regardless of how bad you are.
Still, it makes a difference in the NFL as well. And when the gain from losing is so much more than the gain from winning, a smart organization needs to give it a shot.
So, good play, Desmond Trufant. Enjoy it in the film room. Your fans won't enjoy it on Draft Day.
Kirk Cousins drops back to pass, sees Pierre Garcon, throws it … but it’s deflected by Desmond Trufant! The Falcons win! The Georgia Dome crowd goes wild! Go Falcons!
That’s how it went down, but should it have?
A better scenario, from Atlanta’s standpoint, would have gone like this: Cousins takes the snap and Trufant, acting on instructions from coach Mike Smith on the sidelines, stumbles to a knee and watches helplessly as Garcon scores the winning conversion.
Ah, but this isn’t the NBA, where they make backroom decisions to tank for better draft position, it’s the NFL, where you go wire to wire and that’s that.
It’s admirable.
Whether it’s smart, remains to be seen.
Consider the Falcons, with a loss Sunday, would have fallen to 3-11. Washington would have improved to 4-10.
And the Falcons, with sole possession of the second-worst record in the NFL, could then play Matt Ryan only for the first halves of the next two games, letting two-year backup Dominique Davis (seven career attempts) get some much needed experience.
It’d also save wear and tear on Ryan, who surely isn’t learning much he didn’t know over the final two games of a nothing season. And it’d also make the Falcons even more likely to lose their last two games (at San Francisco, host Carolina).
Instead, they’ll go all out. They’ll play Ryan, they’ll play their starters. They might even win vs. Carolina in Week 17. And when it’s all said and done, they’ll pick somewhere between 3rd and 9th in each round of the draft – when they could have guaranteed themselves second.
Ah, no big deal, you say. What’s the difference?
For argument’s sake, lets say that Atlanta finishes 5-11 and drafts sixth overall and in every round that follows.
The difference between No. 2 and No. 6 on the famed “Draft Value Chart” (which may or may not be valid in todays NFL), is the difference between 2,600 “points” and 1,600 “points” – and that 1,000 points is equivalent to the No. 16 overall pick in the draft.
That’s worth tanking for, is it not?
Now add the points you lose out in the second round (40), third round (20) and fourth round (16) – that adds up to a mid-fourth round pick.
Here are the No. 2 picks from 2005-2012
- RG III
- Von Miller
- Ndamukong Suh
- Jason Smith
- Chris Long
- Calvin Johnson
- Reggie Bush
- Ronnie Brown
- Morris Claiborne
- Julio Jones
- Russell Okung
- Andre Smith
- Vernon Gholston
- LaRon Landry
- Vernon Davis
- Pacman Jones
There's a big difference, folks, and that's if you use the picks. Trade value is also a bonus.
So, for the sake of “finishing strong” and “playing hard,” the Falcons are going to miss out on significant draft value – draft value they could use, after a bad season that came two years after trading away a lot of draft picks for Julio Jones.
In the process, they also expose franchise veteran players like Ryan and Roddy White to needless hits, while gaining … what, exactly? The Falcons' core will be more or less intact for another couple of years; what they need is as much young talent as they can add to it. Now, they'll add a little less.
The NFL is much stronger than the NBA when it comes to this; they demand that their teams not even give off a whiff of tanking. And to be fair, the NBA teams have a lot more to gain from a high pick -- one superstar can get you into the finals, regardless of how bad you are.
Still, it makes a difference in the NFL as well. And when the gain from losing is so much more than the gain from winning, a smart organization needs to give it a shot.
So, good play, Desmond Trufant. Enjoy it in the film room. Your fans won't enjoy it on Draft Day.
