So 538 picked 99 out of 100 states accurately in 2008 and 2012.
But a few states missed by a few percentage points in an unprecedented crazy election in 2016 where there were literal November surprises on the weekend before the election, and suddenly its "I stopped trusting all polls ever"?
It's was (2000 - 2012 ) a predictable time. 2016 changed things. People's political stances in America and around the world are changing. They need to accept the undercurrent of white nationalism.
538 is good but I'm not sure how they are digesting white frustrations. Seems like they are underestimating how low politicians can go and how undereducated the American population is on issues.
They don't realize how much the public just doesn't know and or is apathetic.
Young millennials just don't care or can't find the time to vote. The current Voting process doesn't fit the life style of millennials. It's really not a one stop shop type of process. Let be honest going to vote feels like a fukking chore.
I worked at a place where people could register to vote and most people didn't take advantage or cared to do so. I heard a lot of my "my vote doesn't matter"
I think they are really jumping gun on this blue wave thing. People are getting Trump fatigue from the left. They are tired of liberal pundits and media focusing their attention on Trump 24/7.