It's OK to feel sorry for Yankees, because they're nowhere close to contending
by: John Tomase on Fri, 04/10/2015 - 1:14am
PHILADELPHIA --
The Yankees can't spend their way out of this one.
Years of mismanagement and a blatant disregard for the future finally have caught up to the Bombers, and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
The
Red Sox open a series in New York on Friday, one day after
the Yankees fell to 1-2 following a 6-3 loss to the Blue Jays.
While the
Red Sox bask in the glow of perhaps the best offense and minor league system in baseball,
the Yankees are more bloated than a beached whale.
Shortstop Didi Gregorius is the only regular in his 20s. Catcher
Brian McCann and center fielder
Jacoby Ellsbury already look like potential free agent mistakes.
Alex Rodriguez is a (bleep)-show unto himself. The rotation could be the best in the division, but is just as likely to lose Masahiro Tanaka to Tommy John and
CC Sabathia to osteoporosis.
The Yankees are built for the wrong era. Back when steroids coursed through the game like Alaskan crude, building around 30-somethings wasn't just a worthy gamble, it was smart. Why bet on someone unproven when you could get an All-Star with the knowledge that his prime might stretch to 37?
Not anymore, though. The best teams recognize that it's hard to win without at least a complement of 20-something regulars. Mixing them with veterans is fine, as long as your aging stars aren't tripping on walkers en route to first base.
Just consider the respective lineups. The
Red Sox start a pair of 22-year-olds in Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, as well as 28-year-old Pablo Sandoval. The catcher was supposed to be 24-year-old Christian Vazquez, but even with Vazquez done for the year, 23-year-old Blake Swihart waits in the wings should a need arise.
Yes, there are guys in their 30s like
Dustin Pedroia,
Mike Napoli,
Hanley Ramirez,
Shane Victorino and, of course,
David Ortiz, but the Red Sox can augment them with players such as Rusney Castillo, Deven Marrero and Garin Cecchini in the short term, and Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Manuel Margot down the road.
The Yankees are built like a 2008 All-Star team, and that's not a good thing. In addition to the aforementioned vets, they also start
Carlos Beltran (37),
Stephen Drew (32), Brett Gardner (31) and Chase Headley (31 shortly), a third baseman they signed to a four-year deal because they knew
A-Rod was done there, despite being owed as much as $94 million.
On the pitching side, the Yankees are your ultimate boom-or-bust group. In addition to Tanaka's elbow and Sabathia's body, there's also the shoulder of big right-hander
Michael Pineda. The Red Sox might not have an ace, but they've got depth. The Yankees' hopes are hanging by a thread, though their bullpen is absolutely a weapon, particularly with the left-right tandem of
Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances closing things out.
But age and injury are just the start. Then there's money. It turns out the Yankees have financial limits, and they're up against them, thanks to some of the worst contracts in baseball.
A-Rod is signed through 2017, when he'll make $21 million at age 42 to complete a $275 million disaster. Ellsbury ($153 million) and Tanaka ($155 million) are signed through 2020. McCann and Headley are inked through 2018. Sabathia has a vesting option that could keep him in pinstripes through 2017. Beltran remains on the books through 2016.
In the days of
Kevin Brown,
Roger Clemens,
Gary Sheffield and
Jason Giambi, the Yankees could live with such deals, because they knew the players would continue, um, producing. Now they're anchors.
The Red Sox figured this out, which is why they let
Jon Lester walk, signed Ramirez for four years, and recently extended right-hander Rick Porcello for similar terms. They're not going to let themselves land in a Yankees situation, where they've got little choice but to wait for their horrible contracts to expire before they can even begin to think about rebuilding.
Those deals have a secondary effect that's just as onerous, however. Since many of the above players arrived via free agency, they cost the Yankees high draft picks. Twice in the past four drafts, the Yankees haven't picked their first player until the 50s (though to be fair, they had three first-rounders in 2013). The players that should've restocked their system either didn't sign (Gerrit Cole), didn't produce (Slade Heathcott, anyone?) or may as well not have existed (their 2010 draft has delivered a combined WAR of minus-0.1). Their farm system generally ranks in the bottom third of the game, even after a $17 million spending spree in the international market last summer.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, boast one of the two or three deepest farm systems in the game. They've refused to deal their prospects, have done a better job developing them, and now boast potential big leaguers throughout the system. Third base alone is packed, for instance, with Sandoval blocking the path of Cecchini, Sean Coyle, Devers, former first-round pick Michael Chavis and maybe even Moncada down the road.
They've also got a number of pitchers with potential, including lefties Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson, the last of whom tossed five shutout innings Thursday night in a season-opening win for Triple-A Pawtucket.
As crazy as it sounds, multiple evaluators consider the Yankees at least three years away. The Yanks need to turn over an aging core without succumbing to the allure of quick fixes in free agency, but also without upper-level prospects to fill the void.
If they're impatient, they could land in free agent jail, a lot closer to the Jets and Knicks among the Big Apple's sporting woebegone than anyone woud've imagined.
So when the Red Sox open on Friday, take a good look. This might be the closest the Yankees get to first place all season.
