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I don't even know anymore...
They got Zack Wheeler now too?
When will it end?
When will it end?
The 2015 MLB Random Thoughts Thread
- Thread starter Disgustya Stallone
- Start date
Breakout player picks for 2015
March, 17, 2015
Mar 17
9:15
AM ET
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider
Getty ImagesA Cubs starter and Detroit's third baseman -- both 23 -- are among Law's breakout picks.
Every March, I post a list of players who I think are primed for significant upticks in their performances in the coming season. These are players who've already lost their rookie status but either haven't performed at all in the majors or perhaps just haven't lived up to expectations. Last year's list had several players who did indeed break out, including Anthony Rendon, Drew Smyly, Tyler Skaggs (prior to his injury) and Adam Eaton, as well as Wily Peralta, whose peripherals didn't improve quite enough to call it a “breakout” but who at least had a better year.
This year's list has nine players on it: seven true breakout prospects, one veteran who I think is ready for a big year and one failed prospect who is hurt at the moment but who may still have a half-season breakout coming.
Shelby Miller, RHP, Atlanta
Miller tweaked his pitch mix at the end of last summer, adding a sinker he learned from Justin Masterson while changing the grip on his curveball to tighten its spin and length of its break. The sinker helps him offset the lack of life or plane on his four-seamer, and the curveball -- which showed its best break angle, break length and and spin rate of the year in August and then improved all three in September, per Pitchf/x data -- now looks like a potential out pitch for him, with improved swing-and-miss rates after the change and much better results when hitters put it in play (up from 67 percent to 85 percent). I'd like to see him improve his changeup, but even if that remains a below-average pitch he has the other weapons to be much better than his 4.54 FIP from last year would lead you to believe.
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore
Gausman will go as far as his slider takes him. Without it, he's probably a fourth starter or a dominant eighth/ninth inning guy. I've seen him throw above-average sliders, and I've seen him throw some that were worse. He wasn't allowed or able to throw it enough last year, but the Orioles are making him focus on it more this spring and I've heard (but not yet seen) that it's substantially better. It only has to be a consistently average or above-average (50 or 55) pitch to make him a threat to strike out 200 batters if he gets 32 starts this year.
Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle
I wrote the other day about Walker's improved pitch mix, and the small concerns I still have about his delivery, but I think the net result here is positive, enough that I could see a 2.5-3.0 WAR season from him this year, especially given how favorable the entire Seattle environment is for pitchers right now. My biggest concern for this year is just health -- he had minor shoulder soreness last year, which can result from his kind of short-stride/high-finish delivery. That said, if he can hold up for 180 or so innings in 2015 I expect a true breakout.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit
Castellanos reached the majors quickly, with just three years of minor league experience despite starting pro ball right out of high school, so he was one of the youngest (he turned 23 less than two weeks ago) and least-experienced rookies to hold a more or less every-day job last year. That makes it a bit less surprising that he made adjustments so gradually over the course of the season, but by year end he was clearly making them; he showed early in the year he could hit a fastball, received a steadier diet of offspeed stuff, and by August and September cut his swing-and-miss rates on both sliders and changeups by significant margins. His swing has always been mechanically sound, but with these improvements in his pitch recognition, similar to what he had to go through in Double-A (another long adjustment period for him), I think he'll hit close to .300 with more walks and another 5-10 homers.
Drew Hutchison, RHP, Toronto
I agree that the injury to Marcus Stroman was both a big blow to the Blue Jays' playoff hopes and an even bigger loss for those of us who just love the game, but Stroman's emergence as a top-flight starter had obscured the gains made by Hutchison since his return from 2012 Tommy John surgery. In particular, Hutchison changed his release point on his slider to give it more depth and be better able to throw it effectively against left-handed hitters, but also taking a little velocity off of it, almost using it like a splitter. The pitch now spins faster, more vertically (actually less tilt), and with a longer break, all of which made it harder for hitters to hit -- boosting his swing-and-miss rates on the pitch by over 40 percent. Give him that weapon for a full season and he should shave a run off his ERA.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston
I'm of the opinion, one I can't truly justify or disprove, that the Red Sox's decision to bump Bogaerts off short when they re-signed Stephen Drew last May caused or at least exacerbated Bogaerts' offensive tailspin. The Aruban shortstop was hitting .296/.389/.427 after June 1, his final game at his natural position before he moved to third base to make room for Drew; he hit .182/.217/.300 over the next two months while playing third, and didn't really bounce back even after he returned to short. He played all of last year at 21, the youngest major leaguer to qualify for the batting title in 2014, and thus will be younger this year than many rookies who look shinier because they haven't had the major league failure he's had. No longer faced with the challenge of learning a new position while in the majors, Bogaerts can and should return to the kind of patient, intelligent approach at the plate he showed through his whole minor league career, in the 2013 postseason, and in those first two months of 2014. He didn't just lose that skill overnight.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland
Bauer probably broke out already last year, with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate and WAR of 1.5, but there's clearly another level of control for him to reach that will make him a significantly more valuable pitcher. He's faced 51 batters this spring and walked none of them, which is notable because two years ago he couldn't drink a cup of coffee without walking two batters, and reports I've gotten from scouts and execs are uniformly positive.
Jason Heyward, RF, St. Louis
I know it's cheating to take a player as good as Heyward has been overall and call for a breakout, and I don't think there's some weird parallel to J.D. Drew going to Atlanta from St. Louis in his walk year and having what turned out to be the best year of his career. But my optimism about Heyward's bat isn't tied to either of those factors, but to his escape from a carousel of hitting coaches in Atlanta who struggled to help multiple players with swing issues, including Heyward, B.J. Upton, and Dan Uggla. Heyward's swing changed after a shoulder injury he suffered in his rookie year, and he's never quite gotten back to where he was as a prospect; he's no longer the ground ball machine he was in his first two years, but isn't putting the ball in the air -- on a line or as a fly ball -- as often as he should be.
Jacob Turner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Turner is hurt as I write this, out with a flexor strain and bone bruise but apparently without ligament damage, although we have all seen reports of “it's just a flesh wound” turn into “his ligament spontaneously combusted” before. (Side-eye toward Citi Field.) But Turner had his arm slot back up to where it was when he was pumping gas earlier in his career and he'd reportedly hit 96 before his elbow, likely reacting to the renewal of a disused arm action, barked. I'm not saying he's this year's Jake Arrieta, but if he's healthy enough to pitch after his month off and a few weeks of rehab, I think he can boost that strikeout rate from about 15 percent to well over 20 percent thanks to the restored arm speed.
March, 17, 2015
Mar 17
9:15
AM ET
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider
Every March, I post a list of players who I think are primed for significant upticks in their performances in the coming season. These are players who've already lost their rookie status but either haven't performed at all in the majors or perhaps just haven't lived up to expectations. Last year's list had several players who did indeed break out, including Anthony Rendon, Drew Smyly, Tyler Skaggs (prior to his injury) and Adam Eaton, as well as Wily Peralta, whose peripherals didn't improve quite enough to call it a “breakout” but who at least had a better year.
This year's list has nine players on it: seven true breakout prospects, one veteran who I think is ready for a big year and one failed prospect who is hurt at the moment but who may still have a half-season breakout coming.
Shelby Miller, RHP, Atlanta
Miller tweaked his pitch mix at the end of last summer, adding a sinker he learned from Justin Masterson while changing the grip on his curveball to tighten its spin and length of its break. The sinker helps him offset the lack of life or plane on his four-seamer, and the curveball -- which showed its best break angle, break length and and spin rate of the year in August and then improved all three in September, per Pitchf/x data -- now looks like a potential out pitch for him, with improved swing-and-miss rates after the change and much better results when hitters put it in play (up from 67 percent to 85 percent). I'd like to see him improve his changeup, but even if that remains a below-average pitch he has the other weapons to be much better than his 4.54 FIP from last year would lead you to believe.
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore
Gausman will go as far as his slider takes him. Without it, he's probably a fourth starter or a dominant eighth/ninth inning guy. I've seen him throw above-average sliders, and I've seen him throw some that were worse. He wasn't allowed or able to throw it enough last year, but the Orioles are making him focus on it more this spring and I've heard (but not yet seen) that it's substantially better. It only has to be a consistently average or above-average (50 or 55) pitch to make him a threat to strike out 200 batters if he gets 32 starts this year.
Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle
I wrote the other day about Walker's improved pitch mix, and the small concerns I still have about his delivery, but I think the net result here is positive, enough that I could see a 2.5-3.0 WAR season from him this year, especially given how favorable the entire Seattle environment is for pitchers right now. My biggest concern for this year is just health -- he had minor shoulder soreness last year, which can result from his kind of short-stride/high-finish delivery. That said, if he can hold up for 180 or so innings in 2015 I expect a true breakout.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit
Castellanos reached the majors quickly, with just three years of minor league experience despite starting pro ball right out of high school, so he was one of the youngest (he turned 23 less than two weeks ago) and least-experienced rookies to hold a more or less every-day job last year. That makes it a bit less surprising that he made adjustments so gradually over the course of the season, but by year end he was clearly making them; he showed early in the year he could hit a fastball, received a steadier diet of offspeed stuff, and by August and September cut his swing-and-miss rates on both sliders and changeups by significant margins. His swing has always been mechanically sound, but with these improvements in his pitch recognition, similar to what he had to go through in Double-A (another long adjustment period for him), I think he'll hit close to .300 with more walks and another 5-10 homers.
Drew Hutchison, RHP, Toronto
I agree that the injury to Marcus Stroman was both a big blow to the Blue Jays' playoff hopes and an even bigger loss for those of us who just love the game, but Stroman's emergence as a top-flight starter had obscured the gains made by Hutchison since his return from 2012 Tommy John surgery. In particular, Hutchison changed his release point on his slider to give it more depth and be better able to throw it effectively against left-handed hitters, but also taking a little velocity off of it, almost using it like a splitter. The pitch now spins faster, more vertically (actually less tilt), and with a longer break, all of which made it harder for hitters to hit -- boosting his swing-and-miss rates on the pitch by over 40 percent. Give him that weapon for a full season and he should shave a run off his ERA.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston
I'm of the opinion, one I can't truly justify or disprove, that the Red Sox's decision to bump Bogaerts off short when they re-signed Stephen Drew last May caused or at least exacerbated Bogaerts' offensive tailspin. The Aruban shortstop was hitting .296/.389/.427 after June 1, his final game at his natural position before he moved to third base to make room for Drew; he hit .182/.217/.300 over the next two months while playing third, and didn't really bounce back even after he returned to short. He played all of last year at 21, the youngest major leaguer to qualify for the batting title in 2014, and thus will be younger this year than many rookies who look shinier because they haven't had the major league failure he's had. No longer faced with the challenge of learning a new position while in the majors, Bogaerts can and should return to the kind of patient, intelligent approach at the plate he showed through his whole minor league career, in the 2013 postseason, and in those first two months of 2014. He didn't just lose that skill overnight.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland
Bauer probably broke out already last year, with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate and WAR of 1.5, but there's clearly another level of control for him to reach that will make him a significantly more valuable pitcher. He's faced 51 batters this spring and walked none of them, which is notable because two years ago he couldn't drink a cup of coffee without walking two batters, and reports I've gotten from scouts and execs are uniformly positive.
Jason Heyward, RF, St. Louis
I know it's cheating to take a player as good as Heyward has been overall and call for a breakout, and I don't think there's some weird parallel to J.D. Drew going to Atlanta from St. Louis in his walk year and having what turned out to be the best year of his career. But my optimism about Heyward's bat isn't tied to either of those factors, but to his escape from a carousel of hitting coaches in Atlanta who struggled to help multiple players with swing issues, including Heyward, B.J. Upton, and Dan Uggla. Heyward's swing changed after a shoulder injury he suffered in his rookie year, and he's never quite gotten back to where he was as a prospect; he's no longer the ground ball machine he was in his first two years, but isn't putting the ball in the air -- on a line or as a fly ball -- as often as he should be.
Jacob Turner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Turner is hurt as I write this, out with a flexor strain and bone bruise but apparently without ligament damage, although we have all seen reports of “it's just a flesh wound” turn into “his ligament spontaneously combusted” before. (Side-eye toward Citi Field.) But Turner had his arm slot back up to where it was when he was pumping gas earlier in his career and he'd reportedly hit 96 before his elbow, likely reacting to the renewal of a disused arm action, barked. I'm not saying he's this year's Jake Arrieta, but if he's healthy enough to pitch after his month off and a few weeks of rehab, I think he can boost that strikeout rate from about 15 percent to well over 20 percent thanks to the restored arm speed.
Disgustya Stallone
Man Who Owns 2 Microwaves
2 weeks!
Captain Crunch
Veteran
That's a steal
god shamgod
Veteran
Disgustya Stallone
Man Who Owns 2 Microwaves
bryant starting in triple a is deplorable man
give that kid the shot he deserves f*ck arbitration
give that kid the shot he deserves f*ck arbitration
Kang Deezy
Overall Nice Guy
Anybody in her looking to join the first ever Coli Fantasy Baseball dynasty league? PM me for details
tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
how updated are those?ready to go, going over these this week
Every magazine I pick up always has the rosters as of January so none of them talk about Scherzer to the Nats or Shields to the Padres
Always the ones that fell off and out.