20. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
Why He’ll Succeed: He’ll eventually stop being young for his level, and by that time the performance will have caught up to the tools, which include plus-plus speed, a plus glove, and a potential plus hit.
Why He Might Fail: He’ll eventually stop being young for his level, making for fewer caveats or excuses for a lack of production. The hit tool gains don’t come to fruition, making for a glove-first profile that doesn’t support more than a second-division starting role.
21. Ozhaino Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Why He’ll Succeed: As a plus runner with instincts for the game and excellent contact ability, Albies is the quintessential table-setter that can play either middle infield position.
Why He Might Fail: Albies’ free-swinging approach at the plate could be exploited by advanced pitchers, preventing him from hitting for average and getting on base to utilize his game-changing speed.
22. Lewis Brinson, CF, Texas Rangers
Why He’ll Succeed: His top-shelf makeup continues to drive improvement in his selectivity, which pushes the hit tool into average range and unlocks his superstar potential as an impact defender in center with above-average offensive production and 25-plus stolen bases.
Why He Might Fail: The glove carries him to the majors, but the hit tool could still stall against premium pitching and he might not make enough consistent quality contact to ever justify a starting role.
23. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Why He’ll Succeed: Williams has become a more refined hitter in the upper minors, and while he will never be on the first page of the
OBP leaderboard, his approach at the plate is better than you would expect if you just looked at his walk rate. He has prodigious plate coverage and a bit of pop, and if you squint you can convince yourself he's a center fielder.
Why He Might Fail: Well, he's probably not a center fielder. And he doesn't have that much power. The arm would limit him to left field, where tweener profiles go to die. It is also possible
Dave Brundage will just decide to never play him again, too.
24. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Why He'll Succeed: Espinoza’s stuff is ridiculously advanced for his age/lack of experience, showing a plus-plus fastball and two plus secondary pitches while throwing strikes with all three.
Why He Might Fail: Calling him slight of build is an understatement, and as good as the stuff is, you have to wonder if he’s going to be able to handle the rigors of a 180-200 inning workload.
25. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
Why He’ll Succeed: If his surprisingly short stroke for his size doesn’t give major-league pitchers too many holes to exploit, he'll be able to access his prodigious raw power to the tune of 30-plus home runs annually.
Why He Might Fail: His size could create a strike zone that has too many soft spots for him to hit for average and his penchant for taking pitches only exacerbates the issue, limiting the functionality of his power.
26. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland
Why He'll Succeed: If he continues to hone his approach at the plate and stay short to the ball, he'll make enough contact that his incredible bat speed and raw power compensate for the corner outfield profile.
Why He Might Fail: His aggressive approach to the game puts his body at risk, and could lead to a career peppered by injury. The swing remains lengthy to the ball, and he could have hot and cold streaks at the big-league level, struggling to find consistency.
27. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland
Why He'll Succeed: When you hear someone say a player can “do everything” they’re talking about Zimmer, a player who has three 60 tools in his speed, arm, and glove. He can make a difference with the bat, on the bases and in the field.
Why He Might Fail: His swing can get long, limiting the effectiveness of the hit tool; his troubles with lefties
could limit him to a strong-side platoon role; and he might be best fit for a corner spot.
28. Eloy Jimenez, RF, Chicago Cubs
Why He'll Succeed: One of the two or three best young hitters in the minors, Jimenez has the size, bat speed, and hitting ability to develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter. If his approach matures, 30-homer seasons with a .300 average and a good OBP aren’t out of the question.
Why He Might Fail: His aggressive approach could get exploited as his moves up the organizational ladder and down the defensive spectrum, making the bat less palatable, though still playable.
29. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees
Why He'll Succeed: The speed is the impact tool and could carry the day no matter what, but progress with his bat could make his legs all the more dangerous.
Why He Might Fail: We’ve seen speed-first prospects struggle, in the form of
Billy Hamilton, and a flip from shortstop to second could impact his defensive value as well. Alternatively, he
could keep yelling at executives.
30. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Why He’ll Succeed: His power to all fields pairs with an above-average hit tool to form a potent combination for a glove that rates as “good enough” to stick at short.
Why He Might Fail: The glove might still demand a shift down the defensive spectrum, making the bat more common than special.
31. Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why He'll Succeed: Bell is a “true” switch-hitter, meaning he’s equally adept at hitting from both sides of the plate. His excellent hand-eye coordination helps him get ahead in counts while also avoiding strikeouts, putting the ball in play exceptionally well for a hitter of his ilk.
Why He Might Fail: Because Bell is going to play first base—at least as long as he’s a member of the Pirates organization—he has a ton of pressure on his bat, and if you’re looking for your prototypical 30-homer first baseman, you should probably look elsewhere.
32. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Why He’ll Succeed: He. Barrels. Everything. That and an improving approach give rise to the hope that he can do exactly what he does now at the highest level despite the unorthodox swing.
Why He Might Fail: His best defensive spot is left field, and the tepid power projection means there’s a ton riding on that unorthodox swing, which might not work further up the chain despite present success.
33. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Why He’ll Succeed: His primetime fastball-curve combination overwhelms right-handed hitters and his hard change keeps lefty barrels off the ball enough that he could fulfill his destiny as one of the great complex ball scouting heists in league history.
Why He Might Fail: If his swagger on the bump too routinely blurs the line of stubbornness, he might never develop enough trust in his change and nibbles too frequently, forcing a move to the bullpen (where he can still be really, really good).
34. Gleyber Torres, MI, Chicago Cubs
Why He'll Succeed: There’s no real weakness to Torres’ game. Everything but the power flashes above-average to plus, and his instincts both at the plate and in the field are impressive for any age, much less a 19-year-old.
Why He Might Fail: If he doesn’t stick at shortstop, he doesn’t have the offensive skill set to be a first-division regular. That’s all I got.
35. Franklin Barreto, 2B/SS, Oakland Athletics
Why He’ll Succeed: If his approach catches up with his bat-to-ball acumen, as tends to happen with gifted young hitters, and he grows enough defensively to stay in the middle of the infield dirt, he could blossom into a first-division regular.
Why He Might Fail: If the aggressive promotion schedule reinforces failure in the box, the hit tool never quite actualizes, and his inconsistent fundamentals push him to the grass his bat doesn’t profile nearly as well.
36. Jake Thompson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Why He’ll Succeed: A plus slider leads a solid four-pitch mix with the two-seamer generating plenty of groundballs. He’ll flash days when the fastball command, slider, and curveball work in concert and appear to be something more than the mid-rotation arm he really is.
Why He Might Fail: He's a four-pitch guy who could lack a consistent swing-and-miss offering, making him more of a back-end starter than something more.
37. Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Why He'll Succeed: If the big fastball, plus slider, and in-progress change combine with Garrett’s athleticism, the mix of skills could push him toward the top of the rotation.
Why He Might Fail: The change might never get to “useful," in which case he becomes a two-pitch lefty with a nasty slider, which sounds a lot like a reliever.
38. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why He’ll Succeed: If his above-average three-pitch mix continues to play up with deception and extension, and his extreme bat-missing tendencies pair with decent command to offset his vulnerabilities to the long ball, it would fuel actualization of his strong no. 3 ceiling.
Why He Might Fail: The delivery continues to cause issues for his lower-half health, which could lead to either a domino effect of structural injuries, compromised command, or both.
39. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals
Why He’ll Succeed: If improvements to his control over the last month are for real, Lopez is able to bring a dynamic mix of plus pitches to a starter's role every fifth day. Despite a higher-effort delivery and a short frame for a righty, his good physical strength and athleticism allow Lopez the durability to be a middle-rotation piece with swing-and-miss stuff.
Why He Might Fail: The frame and effort in his delivery could preclude reliable control, making him a middle reliever with good stuff but limited long-term utility at the big-league level.