Prospect rankings update: Who is the new No. 1?
Now that all full-season leagues are underway, here’s an update to my rankings of the top 50 prospects in baseball, my first one since
the full offseason top 100 ran in January.
For in-season updates, I rank only the prospects who are currently in the minor leagues, which took out seven players on major league rosters, including three --
Andrew Benintendi,
Dansby Swanson, and
Josh Bell -- who have also exceeded the 130 at-bat cutoff and will no longer be on any of my prospect rankings.
This is an update rather than a re-ranking. The order of players has barely changed beyond moving players up to fill in for the ineligible names, so for each player I’ve given a quick synopsis of anything that has happened since January, where the player is right now and what I think the rest of the season might look like.
Editor's note: Ages below are as of July 1, 2017. 1. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Age: 21 (11/20/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 170
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 42 | 2017 (Jan. ranking): 3
Rosario impressed the Mets enough in March that they promoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas despite his youth and the fact he played only 56 games in Double-A in his career. Vegas is a great hitters’ environment, and I expect him to put up huge numbers there that won’t tell us much either way about his development, but the promotion also implies to me the Mets want to see Rosario in the majors sooner rather than later.
2. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Age: 20 (12/13/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 15 | 2017: 4
Torres was similarly impressive in spring training, spurring talk he might fill in for the injured
Didi Gregorius despite never playing a game above A-ball. But common sense prevailed, and he started the season with the Double-A Trenton Thunder. At 20, he’s already one of the youngest players at the level and could see the big leagues in September.
3. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 (7/13/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 92 | 2017: 5
Bellinger is already in Triple-A at age 21, and he’s ready defensively to play first base in the majors, although the Dodgers currently have Adrian Gonzalez playing that spot. Bellinger could fill in for a corner outfielder at some point, or if Gonzalez gets hurt, but I think his opportunity is going to come this summer.
4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 22 (1/11/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 4 | 2017: 6
My ranking here hasn’t been swayed by his 2-for-19 start in Triple-A, but it would have been nice to see Crawford, a gifted shortstop who’s repeating that level at age 22, get off to a good start, because 2016 was a year of unfulfilled potential for him. To put it another way, I think he’d already be in the majors if he’d performed at Lehigh Valley last year.
5. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 (4/30/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205
Top level: Double-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 7
Kopech still has the best upside of any starter in the high minors, with the potential for three plus pitches, a No. 1 starter’s build and a delivery that works, although his command and his secondary pitches aren’t major league-ready yet. He struck out 10 of 18 batters in his first outing for Double-A Birmingham on April 8.
6. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 (5/19/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2016: 49 | 2017: 8
Already in high-A at age 20, Robles stands out as the Nationals’ top prospect by a fair margin after all their offseason trades. He’s a center fielder with the potential to hit for power and do damage on the bases -- a centerpiece player who could see the majors late in 2018 if the Nats continue to move him aggressively.
7. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 20 (10/24/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 7 | 2017: 11
Devers joins Torres among Double-A’s youngest everyday players. A giant third baseman, he is the one major prospect on the Portland SeaDogs’ roster and homered in his first game at that level.
8. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 22 (5/3/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 200
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 16 | 2017: 9
Meadows struggled in his 37 games in Triple-A last year and struck out in eight of his first 16 plate appearances this year. While he’s on the cusp of the majors by level, I don’t think we’ll see him in Pittsburgh until the end of this year at the earliest. He’s the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen’s outfield spot, but his No. 1 priority this year is playing a full season, something he has done just once in his three full years in pro ball.
9. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 (11/27/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 12
Jimenez is currently
out of action with a bruised shoulder, which he suffered in a major league spring training game about three weeks ago. He's likely to report to high-A Myrtle Beach when he has recovered.
10. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 22 (6/29/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 15
Senzel started his first full year in pro ball in high-A Daytona, although given the track record of comparable players from recent drafts --
Kyle Schwarber,
Michael Conforto,
Andrew Benintendi -- he could be in the majors by the end of this season. That would mean a mid-year promotion to Double-A at the least, assuming he does to high-A pitching what those other prospects did in their first pro seasons.
11. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 255
Top level: MLB | 2016: 3 | 2017: 13
Giolito had an up-and-down showing in spring training, working on restoring his old delivery and using his low-90s two-seamer more and his mid-90s four-seamer less. That transition might mean more time in Triple-A for Giolito, who had an uncharacteristic three HBP in his first outing for Charlotte.
12. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 (4/4/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 16
Last year’s biggest breakout prospect had a rough introduction to high-A over the weekend, giving up five runs in the third inning, more than he allowed in any start in the 2016 season. His stuff remains top-of-the-rotation caliber, however, and one bad seven-batter stretch doesn’t change his outlook.
13. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (5/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205
Top level: MLB | 2016: 17 | 2017: 17
The White Sox bumped Moncada up to Triple-A even though he came into the year with just 53 career games above A-ball (45 in Double-A, eight in the majors), and he’s doing what he usually does, making hard contact when he makes contact and striking out more than you’d like. He’s also playing second base full time again after dabbling at third in the Arizona Fall League, before Boston included him in the trade for Chris Sale.
14. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (10/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 175
Top level: Double-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 18
Mejia made his Double-A debut in early April and should end up in Triple-A at the very least. A call up to the majors will depend in part on whether Cleveland has 40-man space and wants to use him at all in the postseason. I’m not concerned about whether he’ll hit at higher levels, but he will probably need to show the front office a lot of progress on defense to get that recall.
15. Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Age: 18 (8/23/98) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 220
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 20
The Red Sox’s first-round pick in 2016 boasted one of the best high school curveballs I’ve ever seen, and I expect him to miss plenty of bats in low-A, but he has to work on command and on developing a viable changeup before he can start to progress up the ladder. His debut for Greenville couldn’t have gone any worse: nine runs allowed in 1S innings, 14 batters faced, three walks and one strikeout, and he left the game with an injury to one of his lat muscles.
Law's 2017 Prospect Rankings