A 200-inning pitcher must be good enough to frequently work through a lineup a third and on occasion a fourth time, getting tougher outs later in games, outs that need not be left to relievers, outs most starters do not get a chance to secure because of data suggesting it is a bad idea. The impact of such outs is difficult to quantify. But as Verlander puts it, “The ripple effect is dramatic.”
Too often in today’s analytically driven game, players focus on individual rather than team performance — and no, the two are not always linked. Hitters try to hit home runs when a less extreme approach might better serve their team offensively. Pitchers try to throw as hard as possible for as long as possible, but often they do not go long enough.
This is not to diminish Snell, who has a 1.11 ERA in his last 10 starts, or even a dominant reliever such as the Athletics’ Blake Treinen, who has a 0.79 ERA in 79 1/3 innings. But shouldn’t a workhorse be rewarded for conditioning himself to make virtually every start, for grinding through innings when he is not physically at his best? Give Verlander or Kluber lesser workloads, and maybe their ERAs would more closely resemble Snell’s.
The lower innings total for Snell is due in part to his stint on the disabled list for left shoulder fatigue from July 23 to Aug. 4, and the need to build up his pitch count over his next three starts. His case remains powerful nonetheless. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings, Snell leads the majors with a .090 opponents’ batting average (10-for-111) with runners in scoring position and a .060 opponents’ BA (3-for-50) with runners in scoring position and two outs.
Verlander, though, is enjoying one of the most brilliant campaigns of his 14-year career — a career in which he has finished in the top three of the Cy Young voting four times but won only once, in his 2011 MVP season. If he pitches seven innings on Saturday, he stands a chance of joining Pedro Martinez in 2000 as the only pitchers in AL history to combine a season of 215 innings, a strikeout rate of better than 11 per nine and a walk rate of fewer than two per nine, according to STATS LLC. Verlander’s current strikeout rate of 12.12/9 (second in the AL to Gerrit Cole) and walk rate of 1.56/9 (second to Kluber) are career bests.
There also is this: As a less traditional candidate, at least judging by innings, Snell represents something of a slippery slope. A Snell voter would need to give serious consideration to casting a second-place vote for Indians righty Trevor Bauer, who has thrown only 4 1/3 fewer innings and sports a 2.26 ERA. Red Sox lefty Chris Sale, who has thrown 17 2/3 fewer innings than Snell with a 2.11 ERA, also would merit strong consideration — and relievers might, too.
“That’s the question. If voters are going to start valuing quality over quantity, then you need to re-look at relievers, or take a more serious look at that them,” Verlander said.