The 7 Ways Impeachment Could Shape The 2020 Election

[acri1]

Inspired by this 538 article - The 7 Ways Impeachment Could Shape The 2020 Election

Trump loses everything: In this version of events, the public impeachment hearings become appointment viewing for the nation, attracting tons of attention and meaningfully shifting public opinion. The Democrats pull off the synthesizing of facts and narrative in such a way that a majority of independents and a healthy swath of Republicans turn against President Trump. (Right now, FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls asking about impeachment and removal from office shows 47.5 percent of Americans in favor, 45.6 percent opposed. Currently, only 11.1 percent of Republicans think the president should be impeached.) So much does the tide turn, in fact, that Trump loses his congressional allies and is forced to resign. Think Nixon. Mike Pence becomes president, but only for a few months; the public sees Pence as irrevocably linked to Trump. Like Gerald Ford’s eventual fate, but all sped up. Even sympathetic Republican voters stay home in key states, while key swing demographics move toward the Democrats. Pence loses the election and what’s worse, the GOP loses the Senate, as vulnerable senators are seen as having done too little, too late. Ouch.

Voters abandon Trump but stick with the GOP: Congress remains split along partisan lines and few in the Republican Party end up pulling a Fredo on Trump. He doesn’t need to resign and stays at the top of the GOP ticket in 2020. But the televised hearings are damning to Trump — the public doesn’t like what it sees, and remembers that come November. The impeachment proceeding lowers morale among Republican voters who aren’t part of Trump’s hardcore base (the president currently has a 41.3 percent approval rating and a 54.6 percent disapproval), leading to lowered turnout particularly among reluctant Trump voters in key states. (We first identified reluctant Trump voters in the wake of the 2016 election as Republicans who had cast their ballot for the president unenthusiastically. This group tends to be better educated than the rest of Trump voters, though like most of the president’s voters, they are white, and middle-aged or older.) This scenario might look like the 2018 midterms, when independent voters went for Democrats by a 12-point margin. In this scenario, Trump loses the election but things are a little better for GOP as a whole; it keeps the Senate. Democrats get two houses: the White House and the House of Representatives.

President Pence: Impeachment hearings go really badly. The tide of public opinion turns against Trump and he loses his allies in Congress and is forced to resign. This scenario is a little like the one we started with, except with one key difference: Pence becomes president and wins the general election. He draws huge turnout from Republican voters who love Trump — the campaign charges them up about the unjust fate of Trump — while also reassuring reluctant Trump voters that he, Pence, will make for a steadier hand on the till. Currently, it should be noted, Pence has a net average approval of -5.5 percent according to a Real Clear Politics average; Trump is at -12.0 percent.

The Republican Civil War: The tide of public opinion turns somewhat against Trump, but not enough to shake the faith of leading GOP figures — Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham still watch the Super Bowl with Trump. But certain rebellious GOP figures are fed up and have had enough of hiding their concerns: Mitt Romney joins Jeff Flake (remember him?) in calling for Trump’s impeachment and removal. The moderate GOP caucus falls in line with these figures and the whole lot of them decide to throw their support behind the candidacy of Bill Weld, or, even better, back Romney in a longshot primary bid. They know they probably won’t win, but they siphon off support from Trump and lodge enough attacks for the president to be mortally wounded come general election time. He loses, and Romney et al finally settle in to implementing the 2012 GOP post-mortem plan to win back Latinos.

Trump wins: The House remains split along partisan lines — nothing really changes after the vote to open the inquiry. Few if any Republican senators vote against Trump during his Senate trial. And after watching a whole lot of CSPAN-style television, the American public is divided over what they’re seeing, a la Brett Kavanaugh. (Republican support for now-Justice Kavanaugh only increased following his testimony while Democratic opposition ramped up.) The election is a squeaker. A combination of semi-ambivalent Republicans and low-energy Democrats — perhaps their base isn’t entirely thrilled about their nominee? — leads to Trump winning the election. The Democrats keep the House, the Republicans keep the Senate. Late night shows’ writer’s rooms get a little ‘70s retro, firing up the cocaine to fuel them through four more years of comb over jokes.

Utter chaos and destruction for Democrats: Congress remains split along partisan lines and the televised hearings leave the American public divided, a la Kavanaugh. Republican voters are angry, though. Really angry. The election is a squeaker but Trump pulls through, thanks to his enthused base, reluctant Trump voters and independents who think that the Democrats have led the country through a national pain in the neck for naught. (Independents are the real surprise, given nearly half of them supported impeachment in early November 2019.) The Democrats not only lose the White House, but also the House, as Democratic members from more moderate districts are punished for having put the president on trial. The Democratic gains of the 2018 midterms are all but completely reversed as college-educated whites from the suburbs — the Trump era’s stereotypical swing voter — make their way back to the GOP side of the dividing line.

The weird mixed-bag: The public hearings are damning but Republican voters and elected officials stick with Trump. Democratic voters nationwide are ready to dump Trump, though. Turnout on both sides is high. In certain key swing states, vulnerable Republican senators are ousted (a recent Morning Consult poll shows sliding net approval ratings for some Republican senators up for reelection). The Democrats keep the House, miraculously win the Senate and come out ahead in the popular vote, too. But in a re-hashing of the 2016 election, Trump wins the electoral college. The nation goes to bed confused on Nov. 3, 2020, and spends the next four years wondering whether there was ever any other way things could have ended.

Which scenario does HL think is most likely given the current state of affairs?

 

[mastermind]

I only voted weird mixed bag because this country is mentally ill that I can see it.

 

[mc_brew]

Trump wins (Trump reelected, Senate/House stay the same - the election changes nothing)

 

[Wild self]

From 2018 Midterms and recently in the 2019 elections, the Dems will only continue to pick up momentum. As in, their voter base will only increase as time goes on. Plus they have a lot more governorships than they had in 2016, so no cheating will go on in the swing states.

Trump and all of his open supporters will lose, some will go to jail, and the Dems win everything in 2020. Trump's base is decreasing as less and less people show up at his rallies, and his White House Cabinet will have vacant seats remaining.

 

[kingjones29]

From 2018 Midterms and recently in the 2019 elections, the Dems will only continue to pick up momentum. As in, their voter base will only increase as time goes on. Plus they have a lot more governorships than they had in 2016, so no cheating will go on in the swing states.

Trump and all of his open supporters will lose, some will go to jail, and the Dems win everything in 2020. Trump's base is decreasing as less and less people show up at his rallies, and his White House Cabinet will have vacant seats remaining.

Depending on the candidates dem pick the wrong candidate trump will win

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

From 2018 Midterms and recently in the 2019 elections, the Dems will only continue to pick up momentum. As in, their voter base will only increase as time goes on. Plus they have a lot more governorships than they had in 2016, so no cheating will go on in the swing states.

Trump and all of his open supporters will lose, some will go to jail, and the Dems win everything in 2020. Trump's base is decreasing as less and less people show up at his rallies, and his White House Cabinet will have vacant seats remaining.

exactly we going off trends that actually happened in 2018 and 2019. Not hypotheticals that the op is pushing..

GOP is going to get assed raped in 2020 and they know it

 

[EndDomination]

"Trump loses everything" seems the most likely; but this all depends on the Democrats' plan in the next several months.
With the loss of confidence in Trump; and the train of "never-Trump" Republicans; even a hint of populism on the Dem-side could net them the Presidency with ease, and both a stronger House and the Senate. The best way to do it is run continual popular campaigns, keep up with the grassroots in every single area (and every single constiuency has a grassroots that is open and available), and don't openly flub anything.

I don't have that much faith in the DNC; but they may pull it off.

 

[Strapped]

Potus won't get impeached & bernie wins the white house & the dems win some seats in the senate

 

[acri1]

Potus won't get impeached & bernie wins the white house & the dems win some seats in the senate

Do you mean he won't be removed from office, or that you don't even think the Dems will move forward with impeachment?

Seems unlikely that the Dems would go through this impeachment inquiry and then vote not to impeach. Now the Senate is a different story, there's almost no chance of any Republicans voting to convict, much less 20 of them.

 

[Strapped]

He wont be removed

 

[Doctor Wily]

I have an even crazier scenario


Pence resigns & is replaced by x__________, Trump impeached. New Vp wins wins election & somehow the GOP still loses the Senate.

 

[mc_brew]

Trump wins (Trump reelected, Senate/House stay the same - the election changes nothing)

i guess what i wonder is how bad the democrats want it.... will they contest every shot, chase down every rebound, give their all for all 48 minutes, or are they just going to settle for easy shots... i know that the republicans are going to put it all on the line... if they lose, it won't be because of a lack of trying or a lack of heart... their fans will know the republicans wanted it so bad that they could taste it.... the dems though? they might fumble away possession after possession as shot clock winds down... they might make silly turnovers like stepping out of bounds or traveling.... i think the dems have the skills of a dynasty nba team, but not the heart of one.... nail biter...