Ok i quickly touched on 2 things that I feel like will be important to the outcome of this series: the Warriors have home court advantage and they are almost unbeatable at home and the Warriors play a defense that's designed to stop a team with the offensive strengths and weaknesses that mirror those of the Rockets. Let me get into it a little more since this is one of the final 3 series this season.
First of, the Rockets do have a few advantages on the Ws.
I feel like the biggest X factor for the Rockets offensively in any series is whether they can get to the line and while the Warriors do a swell job of guarding the paint, they do foul a lot. The Warriors were just 19th in opponent FTr this season. Also the Rockets love to get after offensive rebounds and GS is just an average rebounding team. However, that in itself is a blessing in disguise. The rockets, due in part to their aggressiveness on their own glass, are one of the weaker teams in the league when it comes to transition defense. Which also happens to be one of Golden States biggest strengths. Houston is also just average in defending the 3 and we know that's pretty much death against GS. Their 2 biggest strengths defensively are interior defense in half court sets as well as aggressive play in the passing lanes. Unfortunately because Golden State is a perimeter/fast break heavy team, the 1st one isn't as useful against them but because of Steph Curry's tendency to get lazy and/or risky with his passes, the 2nd one can certainly come in handy. Still against a team that passes it as well as the Warriors do, Rocket defenders that like to go for the home run play will likely get burned far more than they'd like. I can easily picture a Corey Brewer whiff on a flare or down screen resulting in a wide open 3 for one of the Splash Bros.
The rockets do still have the talent to stay competitive, they are nothing if not aggressive and confident with their 3s. Because of that when they get hot, they are one of the few teams that can actually keep up with the Warriors offensively. Trevor Ariza, James Harden, Jason Terry, and even Terrence Jones and Josh Smith will need to make a lot of 3s for that happens but it's possible. The Warriors in turn will need to close out hard defensively and stay close to these guys. The midrange jumper is kin to an allergic reaction for Houston and outside of Terry and Harden, no one on their roster shoots it very well in that area. I believe that Bogut can do a good job with Howard one on one and if even Dwight gets going somewhat, I would still hesitate sending help. He's never been a very skilled offensive player and I just don't see him bringing the type of fire power that's necessary to keep up with Curry, Klay and co. Leaving Houston's three point shooters open worries me a lot more. If I was Houston, I'd much rather run the offense through Harden and hope that he can get to the basket and maybe even get Thompson and/or Bogut into foul trouble. Harden seemed tentative especially in the beginning of the Clipper series and it's imperative that he does not settle for midrange shots and finds his way to the hoop or at least takes 3s, as opposed to long 2 point shots. Unfortunately he is still a bit streaky from beyond the arc but if he gets going from there, along with his repertoire of foul drawing moves, he becomes as unstoppable as any current perimeter player. On the other end, it'll be important for Brewer and Ariza to slow down Klay Thompson. They should hope to stay on his body outside the 3 point line and once he catches the ball, try to lead him right into the long arms of Dwight Howard. Of course, Steph Curry is still the Warriors best player and the Grizzlies in games 2 and 3 pretty much played the best type of D that one can hope to play against him. They set a standard that I just don't see the Rockets being able to match. Even outside the lack of competence a late 30s Jason Terry provides in this scenario, the Rockets just don't employ the right personnel or philosophy to successfully shut down Curry. As always Draymond Green will be a huge X Factor for the Warriors as well. Can Josh Smith/T. Jones try to cheat off him if he is involved in a pick with Curry? If Draymond hits a couple 3s early or completes a couple of succesful rolls to the hoop for the Curry assist it forces teams to stay close to Green and opens up all type of space for the rest of the team. Andre Iguodala had a huge performance in Game 6 against Memphis and he is another guy that will be important to the Warriors really blowing this wide open. If he and Green both get going the Warriors become essentially impossible to defeat.
I do think the Rockets will hit their 3s at least in a couple of games and Harden+Howard will get to the line resulting in a couple of wins and a more competitive series than some may assume. Ultimately though, it'd be a surprise if the Rockets managed to push it to 7, let alone actually won out.
Warriors in 6.
Edit:
tl:dr
Important numbers to look for:
for rockets:
Harden + Ariza 6+ threes made combined
Dwight + Harden 18+ FTAs combined
For warriors:
Curry 9+ assists 4 or less turnovers
iggy + Green 3 or more threes made combined
Warriors need to win the fast break.
Rockets need to go to the line a bunch and probably shoot close to 40% 3 consistently..
Cavs vs Hawks preview coming soon in that thread