The GOP is dying off literally (Poltico article)

valet

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It turns out that one of the Grand Old Party’s biggest—and least discussed—challenges going into 2016 is lying in plain sight, written right into the party’s own nickname. The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older, and as the adage goes, there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes. Right now, both are enemies of the GOP and they might want to worry more about the former than the latter.

There’s been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: Hundreds of thousands of their traditional core supporters won’t be able to turn out to vote at all.

The party’s core is dying off by the day.


Since the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. To make matters worse, the GOP is attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to make inroads with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth, the GOP’s slow demographic slide will continue election to election. Actuarial tables make that part clear, but just how much of a problem for the GOP is this?

Since it appears that no political data geek keeps track of voters who die between elections, I took it upon myself to do some basic math. And that quick back-of-the-napkin math shows that the trend could have a real effect in certain states, and make a battleground states like Florida and Ohio even harder for the Republican Party to capture.

By combining presidential election exit polls with mortality rates per age group from the U.S. Census Bureau, I calculated that, of the 61 million who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, about 2.75 million will be dead by the 2016 election. President Barack Obama’s voters, of course, will have died too—about 2.3 million of the 66 million who voted for the president won’t make it to 2016 either. That leaves a big gap in between, a difference of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats.

Here is the methodology, using one age group as an example: According to exit polls, 5,488,091 voters aged 60 to 64 years old supported Romney in 2012. The mortality rate for that age group is 1,047.3 deaths per 100,000, which means that 57,475 of those voters died by the end of 2013. Multiply that number by four, and you get 229,900 Romney voters aged 60-to-64 who will be deceased by Election Day 2016. Doing the same calculation across the range of demographic slices pulled from exit polls and census numbers allows one to calculate the total voter deaths. It’s a rough calculation, to be sure, and there are perhaps ways to move the numbers a few thousand this way or that, but by and large, this methodology at least establishes the rough scale of the problem for the Republicans—a problem measured in the mid-hundreds of thousands of lost voters by November 2016. To the best of my knowledge, no one has calculated or published better voter death data before.

“I’ve never seen anyone doing any studies on how many dead people can’t vote,” laughs William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in demographic studies. “I’ve seen studies on how many dead people do vote. The old Daley Administration in Chicago was very good at that.”

Frey points out that, since Republicans are getting whiter and older, replacing the voters that leave this earth with young ones is essential for them to be competitive in presidential elections. But the key question is whether these election death rates will make any real difference. There are so many other variables that dead voters aren’t necessarily going to be a decisive factor.

“The [GOP] does rely too much on older and white voters, and especially in rural areas, deaths from this group can be significant,” Frey says. “But millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference. And the data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with millennials.”

But what if Republicans aren’t able to win over a larger share of the youth vote? In 2012, there were about 13 million in the 15-to-17 year-old demo who will be eligible to vote in 2016. The previous few presidential election cycles indicate that about 45 percent of these youngsters will actually vote, meaning that there will about 6 million new voters total. Exit polling indicates that age bracket has split about 65-35 in favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...dying-off-literally-118035.html#ixzz3adNq6wJc
 

Dreamer

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Most of them will be gone over the next ten or twenty, that's why their try to go all out with rezoning/redistricting, but it will only go so far

So their next best option is trying to appear a lil less racist and cater to the latino and then last of all black vote, they know it's a lost cause with the later

It doesn't matter shyt will always evolve and change even they're aks ars can't save them from diversity

So in 100 years eveyone will say wtf is a Republican, because even their kids they have brainwashed are a diluted version of their America...

RIP
 

Truth200

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The GOP knows it's over for them. They look hopeless on Fox News talking about how America is going to bury the republican candidates who still act like the Iraq war was a good idea.
 

NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong

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Most of them will be gone over the next ten or twenty, that's why their try to go all out with rezoning/redistricting, but it will only go so far

So their next best option is trying to appear a lil less racist and cater to the latino and then last of all black vote, they know it's a lost cause with the later

It doesn't matter shyt will always evolve and change even they're aks ars can't save them from diversity

So in 100 years eveyone will say wtf is a Republican, because even their kids they have brainwashed are a diluted version of their America...

RIP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_P._Bush

Bush was the national co-chair of Maverick PAC, a national political action committee dedicated to engaging the next generation of Republican voters.[10] Bush was also a co-founder and on the board of directors of Hispanic Republicans of Texas, a political action committee whose goal is to elect Republican political candidates of Hispanic heritage to office in Texas.[11][12]
 

Truth200

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Candidates struggle with Iraq political quagmire

Washington (CNN)If you're running for President, get used to becoming hung up over Iraq.

Because barring a miracle, whoever wins the White House will become the fifth consecutive American president ensnared by a nation that has consumed trillions of U.S. dollars and thousands of American lives. It has also blighted a string of high-flying political careers.

If the last week on the 2016 campaign trail has proved anything, it's that American politics is still nowhere near purged of the bitter political divides of a war undertaken 12 turbulent years ago, somewhat like the Vietnam War that reverberated through successive presidencies.

READ: Jeb Bush's challenge: Family loyalty

Leading Republican candidates have suddenly been tripped up by the most basic question -- was President George W. Bush right to invade Iraq way back in 2003? And no doubt Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton will yet again have to answer for the vote she cast in favor of the war while in the Senate.

The American entanglement with Iraq started under President George H.W. Bush when Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait in 1989, evolved into a standoff and occasional air strikes under President Bill Clinton and erupted into a full-scale invasion under George W. Bush.

And now under President Barack Obama a quarter of a century later, America's misadventure in the fractured Middle Eastern nation has transformed into a slog against the bloodthirsty Sunni radicals of ISIS.

With no end in sight.



A fight that won't end by 2016


Senior administration officials have already admitted that the fight against ISIS will go beyond the current presidency -- in the process hinting at one of the great disappointments of the Obama era.

In 20 months, the President who was elected perhaps more than anything else to end the Iraq war, will bequeath to his successor a new phase of that same intractable conflict.

Despite declaring the war over -- and bringing home the last U.S. soldier in December 2011 -- Obama has been sucked back in. Just this weekend, an ISIS surge into the key Iraqi city of Ramadi and a U.S. Special Operations raid into Syria to kill one of the group's top leaders have shown that American involvement has not ended, and that the engagement is proceeding without any clear sign of victory.

Iraq's enduring power to confound American presidents -- and to reverberate in successive presidential campaigns -- is a reminder that when America goes to war abroad, anything but a swift, clear-cut victory unleashes an unpredictable cascade of political consequences at home.

150423142252-scott-walker-foreign-policy-try-2-medium-plus-169.png


2016 Republicans' foreign policy credentials 12 photos
EXPAND GALLERY
"Failed wars always hurt the president fighting them, but also continue to impact the party of the presidency for decades after they are gone," said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history at Princeton University.

Iraq has become a political issue akin to Vietnam, as politicians seize on the aftermath of an inconclusive war to eviscerate their rivals' handling of foreign policy.

Democrats make a case that the 2003 invasion invalidated an entire school of Republican political thought -- neoconservatism -- and say the war proves the GOP cannot be trusted with U.S. national security.

Republicans meanwhile insist the war was all but won in 2009 by Bush's belated troop surge and blame Obama for being more concerned with honoring a political promise to end the war than the reality of the deeply unstable nation he left behind.

Still, Mark Atwood Lawrence, professor of history at the University of Texas at Austin, argues that political fallout from the Iraq war could prove to be less radioactive than that of Vietnam, which took decades to play itself out.

One reason for that is the bipartisan consensus now forming that the war was a mistake given that Hussein's weapons of mass destruction -- used as a justification for war -- did not exist.



Politicians catch up with public consensus


It's perhaps a surprise that politicians took so long to catch up to this predominant view given that citizens made up their minds long ago.

In a New York Times/CBS News poll last year, 75% of those asked said the Iraq war was not worth the loss of American lives. The findings are consistent with other opinion surveys.

The GOP reluctance to criticize the decision to go to war stems in part from the candidates' desire not to alienate conservative primary voters thirsting for tough-talking foreign policy. And calling the war a mistake raises the treacherous question of whether the deaths of more than 4,000 U.S. troops were a waste.

READ: Republican field pressed on Iraq

But it still perplexed many political insiders that it took former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush a week of painfully groping for answers to come up with a satisfactory, and some believed obvious, response: that had he known then that U.S. intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction was flawed, he would not have gone to war in 2003.

Jeb Bush was at least trapped between his own political fortunes and loyalty to his brother. But Republican candidate Marco Rubio, a Florida senator, had no such family ties to blame for his trouble putting to rest questions about his views on the topic. Rubio got into a heated dispute on Fox News Sunday after denying that he had flip-flopped by now concluding that the Iraq war was a mistake.

Their apparent confusion has provided an opening for fellow Republican Rand Paul, a Kentucky senator and presidential candidate, to renew his argument for a foreign policy derided by critics as isolationist but in tune with the majority of voters who now view the Iraq war as a mistake.



Paul pushes his foreign policy case


Paul said at a GOP dinner in Iowa this past weekend that the notion that the Iraq war should never have been fought is "a valid question, not just because we're talking about history, but we are talking about the Middle East, where history repeats itself."

It isn't only Republicans who are vulnerable on the issue. Hillary Clinton needs no reminder of the capacity of Iraq to crush political dreams, after her 2002 Senate vote to authorize the Iraq war cost her primary support and paved Obama's way to the presidency.

Clinton, conscious of the consequences of admitting her judgment on national security was flawed, never said during her 2008 White House bid that her Senate vote on Iraq was a mistake.

But in last year's book "Hard Choices," in which she provided a blueprint for how supporters could defend her record, she was much more clear.

"I got it wrong. Plain and simple," she wrote.

Some U.S. foreign policy veterans are warning that the political debate in Washington is hampering hopes of meeting the challenge to U.S. security posed by ISIS and finally closing America's book on Iraq. Where once it was politically difficult to oppose the use of force in Iraq, now that position has become toxic.

"Now Iraq poses a threat -- it didn't 10 years ago," said James Rubin, an assistant secretary of state under Clinton, referring to ISIS and its efforts to export its ideology and terror tactics to the West.

"It's a shame that the politics, the pendulum of our political system, has swung so far to the other direction that our President and others are not prepared to take some modest steps to defeat a genuine threat, not the fake threat that was exaggerated 10 years ago," Rubin told CNN.

150514105752-jeb-bush-nra-april-10-2015-exlarge-169.jpg






Can Jeb Bush recover from Iraq war stumble? 01:54

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/18/politics/iraq-bush-rubio-clinton-obama/
 

Dreamer

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The young libertarian/ republicans tried to change the game with social tolerance of gays, atheism, socail liberalism, weed use, but the old guard told them to leave.
old people don't like new shyt, it's why they all in old country buffet every friday at 4:30 for dinner, I love old people, I just think they're usually pretty stuck in their ways and don't really understand the world has changed

But they get scared alot, just imagine bein alive 70+ years an seein all the stuff they have, o well atleast they'll be at peace soon so they stop bein angry lol
 

Billy Hoyle

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old people don't like new shyt, it's why they all in old country buffet every friday at 4:30 for dinner, I love old people, I just think they're usually pretty stuck in their ways and don't really understand the world has changed

But they get scared alot, just imagine bein alive 70+ years an seein all the stuff they have, o well atleast they'll be at peace soon so they stop bein angry lol
It's kind of hard to even fathom how much things have changed during their lifetime and the pace at which it took place.

I mean, the difference between 20 years ago and now is unbelievable in so many ways. We evolved with it, but if you were 50 when that shyt started happening it had to be a little scary/intimidating. :flabbynsick:
 

Camile.Bidan

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They made Rand Paul fall bacc. Hes a good ol boy now :jawalrus:

He is just drumming up support like Obama did by going far to the left during the primary.

If rand wins, we will basically have a young republican/libertarians president, which means he will be socially liberal, economically conservative, and anti-war.
 

the cac mamba

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old people don't like new shyt, it's why they all in old country buffet every friday at 4:30 for dinner, I love old people, I just think they're usually pretty stuck in their ways and don't really understand the world has changed

But they get scared alot, just imagine bein alive 70+ years an seein all the stuff they have, o well atleast they'll be at peace soon so they stop bein angry lol
i dont :heh:. id even go so far as to say that every old person you're not related to can :camby:
 

Box Cutta

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Democrats are (rightfully) smug right now, but the truth is that all voting blocs eventually dissipate, and theirs will too. The New Deal eventually fell apart, the Obama electorate will eventually fall apart, and so on and so fourth.

The thing about being "big tent" is that by definition, the alliances are going to be weaker. Blacks, Gays, Hispanics, Environmentalist, Feminist....it's relatively sturdy now but who knows what the future will bring.

My guess is that Hispanics are the shaky part of this alliance right now.

I *thought* that Republicans would eventually ease up on gays, but the past couple of weeks would suggest that they aren't ready to fight for that vote, and probably won't be for a long time.

I *would like* for blacks to branch off and maybe consider forming our own party (We should at least break away at the local and sometimes state level) but we seem too enamored by the Dems.
 

kingofnyc

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He is just drumming up support like Obama did by going far to the left during the primary.

If rand wins, we will basically have a young republican/libertarians president, which means he will be socially liberal, economically conservative, and anti-war.

:what:
like father like son
he got no fukking shot in the primaries! only delusional people think the grand ole party would give him the nomination
 
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