The New Cold War

[Blackking]

of course, the economic agreements that China is making with Russia - combined with EU dependance on Russian and African resources - While China being the number 1 nation that African nations see as the lesser of the 4 evils will.......


place the US in a bad place economically.... the US is already in a bad spot, but we are large enough with a powerful enough military and pop culture that we can make shyt seem like flowers.

Eventually we will be more blatant with forcing our will on other nations......which will back fire, because eventually (by 2010) We might poke at Chinese interest too much and China will then show their dominance. Realistically they've been the dominate nation for a few years and just haven't been as ignorant with that power as you...


All this shyt going down will be great and healthy for Africa as long as they keep on track with keeping and developing their own resources..... So far China seems to realize that a unstable, controlled, and child-like African continent isn't beneficial to them.... so they will make mutually beneficial deals with the african nations.

I'll have nigerian citizenship by next year... so I'll be settled by the time all this shyt goes down.

 

[Richard Wright]

nwo not here yet ?

No its here. The governments have been hijacked. Look at the resourse distribution. People spy on themselves. In the middle east a drone can kill any person any second. Its not like its gonna be some formal thing

 

[Gains]

 

[Leasy]

I do believe the Cold War is going on right now. There will be no more major wars because it won't benefit China, Russia, Africa, Iran, etc... Only U.S and Europe. The only thing with Europe is that they are 50 50 when it comes to allying with U.S, Germany always played the outsider when it comes to relations and I don't see some countries riding with U.S as before especially with the spyware gate and failed sanctions which is causing Europe millions of dollars. Looking at it outside of the box their is no economic, trading relation benefit to be close allies with U.S it is a dying horse. Africa countries are benefiting greatly by trading with China and also building their own relations amongst themselves. China grabbing all the gold reserves around the world to position itself soon for the world leading country. Germany and Venezula asking for their gold reserves back from America, the brics nation is a great idea. I mean the fed reserve is collapsing.

The U.S as always will try to use economic hit men like tactics and war to fix their ills but as of now that shyt is desperation and it doesn't benefit in a global way especially when you have countries on the same page and your country doesn't have any money. You might can attack a little county is Iraq but not Iran or Russia.

Saudi Arabia knows that their run will end if Iran is allowed to trade and enter the playing field. Israel is in a horrible situation in my opinion.

India is the factor also. India doesn't have good relations with China but has good relations with U.S. India doesn't have good relations with Pakistan but has good relations with Russia. India is in a tight situation and has to be careful who they side with. Japan is a dying breed as others Asia countries will be if they don't just bytch up to China.

 

[The War Report]

China is a bootleg ass country.

 

[Leasy]

China is a bootleg ass country.

Lol but they know money breh and that's all that matters

 

[Kritic]

@Dreamestorical @2Quik4UHoes @Napoleon @KidStranglehold @Broletariat @Hollywood Hogan @DEAD7 @Blackking @Leasy @MansaMusa @Eric Blair @#1 pick @Kritic @GetInTheTruck @Broke Wave

How do you see the next 50 years?

i'd have to go look at the book of revelations then work backwards. so i have no predictions at this point.



the zionists/wall street have completely taken over the world govts and disconnected with their ppl. war is good for wall street. more war is good for business and that's where we're all headed.

in the end times there doesn't seem to be a united states present. this shyt is finna crash brehs

 

[wire28]

yall some depressing ass people lol. i thought i was pessimistic

 

[Poitier]

The Chinese Solution to the Ukrainian Problem
2014 MARCH 5

by Ian Welsh
The Ukraine was a mess even before the crisis:

• Massively in debt. 35 billion needed over the next two years.
• Aging industrial sector, located primarily in the east, which produces steel goods that no one but Russia is willing to buy.
• Massive inequality, and a private sector controlled almost entirely by oligarchs.
• A genuinely split population, politically.
• Vast corruption.
• Unable to provide enough energy for its own industries and citizens.
• Not able to sell enough to foreigners to pay for what it needs to import.

The IMF had offered 4 billion dollars, contingent on ending energy subsidies and opening the economy up. Ending energy subsidies would double price of energy, which would mean that the aging industries would go out of business and many Ukrainians would freeze next winter, because they can’t afford the higher prices. The EU trade deal was nothing special either: they don’t want Ukraine’s steel or lousy, Soviet era goods.

The Ukraine has almost nothing going for it. But it does have one thing: it’s a breadbasket. The Ukraine exports a ton of wheat.

There are growing food shortages, and food prices have been rising faster than inflation for years. They will continue to do so.

The country which has expressed the most interest in Ukraine’s wheat is China. They offered, at one point, to rent fully 5% of the Ukraine’s land to farm.

China is the country in the world throwing off the most money right now, their money creation dwarfs even the United States. They cannot grow enough grain to feed their own population. China is also the only great power which still offers development to its partners: the Chinese have built roads, ports, airports and factories in Africa and Asia. Further, so long as deals are kept with them, the Chinese do not care what is done internally: they don’t consider it any of their business. Their money is not contingent on other countries engaging in the sort of austerity that the IMF, Europe and the US like to force on anyone who goes to them for money.

China is also willing to lock into long term deals, and to pay somewhat more than the market rate to insure a guaranteed supply of whatever commodity they need, whether that be oil or food.

The Ukraine has two problems which cannot be tackled under the West’s aegis: inequality, and debt. The West simply will not allow a massive restructuring or default of debt and still give the Ukraine money. Does not happen: oligarchs are sacred in the West. But what the Ukraine needs to do is restructure its debt: turn it all into 100 year bonds at 1% and tell investors to take it or leave it. And they need to expropriate the oligarchs: take away their money, power and holdings.

Neither of these things, again, can be done under the West. And once done, the West will generally refuse to trade the Ukraine what it needs.

So the obvious play is to expropriate the land needed to make a deal with China. Cut a deal with China to take virtually all of the Ukraine’s grain exports, to develop the Ukraine’s land and make its farming even more productive, and to sell the Ukraine the goods the West will stop selling them.

Meanwhile, since Russia and China are on great terms, you don’t take the Western/IMF deal, you take the Russian offer, because in addition to food the one thing you MUST have is oil and natural gas, and Russia will give you a discount on those. The only people whose debts you don’t roll over into 100 year bonds are the Russians (though you do renegotiate with them, and yeah, you can probably get great terms if you swing back into their sphere of influence and join their trade area.)

The odds of this happening, are, of course, exactly zero. The Ukraine’s west, and the current government are caught in this weird delusion where they think that, like Poland, they can get prosperity by orienting to Europe. They can’t, those days have passed, and Poland is not the Ukraine (among other things, it has very low inequality.) And the current government is in bed with the oligarchs: they turned on the last government at the right time, and the new government is appointing them to key posts.

However, things change: Europe and the IMF will wreck the Ukraine (that’s what they do), and things will get worse for ordinary people (there may be a hiatus where things get better due to a land bubble, we’ll see). When it does, Ukrainians will have another chance to realize that Western nations aren’t their friends, and only care about them as a took to screw with the Russians, or to the extent there is something of value left to loot.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-chinese-solution-to-the-ukrainian-problem/

 

[Poitier]

How China Can End American Hegemony
2014 MARCH 25

by Ian Welsh

For most of history China has been the most powerful nation in the world, with the largest economy, and the most advanced technology.

That is, in the long run, normal.

Today China rises. Having been humiliated by the West in the 19th and early 20th century, it has systematically increases its manufacturing base until China is the largest manufacturer in the world.

I concentrate on manufacturing because it and resource extraction are the two things which really matter. All the software in the world, all the “financial services” don’t matter if you can’t make, mine, or grow what you need.

If you were China, and you wanted to destroy US hegemony, how would you do it?

The simple answer is “control the means of production”.

Right now many US companies manufacture in China: Apple may be located in California, but its manufacturing base is largely in China. As time goes by, those who make goods, learn how to design them. As companies more and more offshore and outsource their design, this becomes more and more true.

Companies like Apple can build their goods in China because of patent law: the Chinese may know how to make them, but it’s illegal to do so.

The logical path for China would be to wait till they have the actual production facilities for every key sector, then break the patents and let the factories (which are already Chinese owned subcontractors, as a rule) make the goods themselves.

If you do this in one fell-swoop, because the facilities no longer exist in the US or Europe to make the goods, the US and, indeed, Western governments are faced with two choices: go into an economic tailspin, or buy from China either way.

The conventional reply to this is “but the Chinese need Western consumers!”

Do they? Will they forever? Or can they take their huge population and turn that into a consumer base? Can they turn various developing countries into consumers of their goods? Africa, in particular, has been looking more and more to China, because China offers development: building roads and factories and ports and airports, which the West no longer does, at least not without insisting on crippling IMF conditions. China doesn’t do that, it doesn’t care how other countries run their internal affairs: if they want to subsidize food, that’s fine by China.

Russia, of course, will increasingly turn to China as the West isolates it. Much of Latin America is already looking towards China, and find Chinese influence far less problematic than American influence, since the Chinese don’t actively try to overthrow their governments.

Will this happen? Perhaps, perhaps not. But, increasingly, it is a route open to the Chinese. They control the actual means of production: the West has very kindly engaged in massive technology and capital transfer to China, moving expertise and the actual production.

One might argue that cooperation is better for China. But will it always be? Thanks to massive mismanagement of the economy, the environment and both renewable and non-renewable resources, we are increasingly moving into a period of scarcity. In a negative sum game, cutting America, which consumes far more than its per capita share of resources off at the knees may be exactly what China needs to do to ensure its own prosperity and survival.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/how-china-can-end-american-hegemony/

 

[Poitier]

S Brennan PERMALINK
March 25, 2014
2 very good points Ian,

“Russia, of course, will increasingly turn to China as the West isolates it”

&

“Why countries put their carotid arteries in other nations hands is beyond me.”

It helps to remember that in September of 1939, the USA was 17th in world military power, but the #1 manufacturer in the world. Four years later, the U.S. of A was ready to crush all comers.

The inability to understand the difference between military hardware, with the ability to win a war seems to be endemic in the tony sections of New York & D.C. It’s not American exceptionalism, all people become inept when pampered with too much, for too long.

Jessica PERMALINK
March 26, 2014
I admire this as an intellectual exercise. You are really looking at it from the Chinese perspective. Not a North American trying to look at it kind of sort of from a Chinese perspective but still really having a North American view.
The biggest piece that does not fit well into this plan is the rest of east Asia. China could probably produce most anything now without any inputs from the US, but it could not do without South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. It would be difficult for China to get these three on board and the posturing over the rocks in the South China Sea is not helping those three neighbors trust China more.
China is in a position similar to Japan: the military logic and economic logic point in different directions.
I think for your scenario to come to pass, one more large something is necessary. I don’t know what that would be. Perhaps the US becoming much more nakedly aggressive against its own allies or letting tens or hundreds of millions of people die world-wide to protect some pharmaceutical patent. Something large.
One more thing: your scenario might actually be the best course for China as a whole, if China functioned as a whole, but for the Chinese oligarchs and elites who make the decisions, it would be a big gamble and they are the ones with the most to lose.
I agree with your implicit premise: that China has been governed in recent decades more to the benefit of the nation as a whole than the US has. That is the deal that elites make with the population in development states: we build up the economy and standard of living and you STFU and let us run everything. But if a financial sector arises in China, the elite will break the deal from their side. The financial sector never builds up a country or economy. I know that rich Chinese are being pulled into global financialization but I can not get a good handle on how far this process has undermined the national development project.

Ian Welsh PERMALINK*
March 26, 2014
Jonathan,

I haven’t read Shadow Elite, but I’ve heard the thesis before. In the West the elites have become de-nationalized to a large extent. That’s less true in Russia and China, and Putin is now forcing his oligarchs to choose.

someofparts PERMALINK
March 27, 2014
“Oddly, the only place I note widespread alarm over US de-indutrialization is in the South, perhaps, because those folks are fully aware of what happens to a capable Army/Navy when they face a country with a much greater INDUSTRIAL capacity.”

bingo
like deja vu all over again

Formerly T-Bear PERMALINK
March 30, 2014
I withdraw my remarks. The remarks were intended to question the economic premiss presented in the above hijacking of Ian’s post. As a reader, I haven’t shared your experiences in the technical field as the personal anecdotes you’ve used in establishing your authority for stating your opinions about technology. Whether or not the United States has the technical ability for economic production to sustain itself is immaterial; the germane question evolves about whether there is an ability to use traditional economic concepts to communicate or whether a new set of economic terms needs be developed to adequately describe economic conditions and understand the nature of today’s problems, needed solutions will not appear from nowhere or from ignorance of economics. Those enquiries are not happening and are quite unlikely to happen under duress of economic collapse and the political unrest resulting in such collapse.

As for response to Ian’s post, American hegemony will end somewhere on the road to a very hot, mushroom shaped cloud; those who live by the sword usually die by the same, funny how that works.

 

[Poitier]

When the attempt is made at real redistributive justice, as it must be, it will be easiest done if a number of countries do it at about the same time, supporting each other, and acting as a bloc. If key resource nations like Canada, Russia, much of South America and S. Africa were to get together, it would be very difficult to bully them, because they control key resources which cannot be substituted away from except at great cost, and in some cases, at all.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/mandelas-neoliberal-compromise/

 

[Broke Wave]

None of this shyt is gonna happen

 

[Poitier]

None of this shyt is gonna happen

Imma need to see some receipts

We already know what IMF, EU and USA does to nations

Obama just gave Poland a billi for military just cause

And Russia just got 400 billi from China for natural gas

 

[Richard Wright]

Imma need to see some receipts

We already know what IMF, EU and USA does to nations

Obama just gave Poland a billi for military just cause

And Russia just got 400 billi from China for natural gas

Yea there is nothing not serious about the state of the world today. Everything changed in 2009. We just got back to the same level of jobs after 5 fukking years of population growth. I seem to be the only person about this.

None of this shyt is gonna happen

Do you disagree with my post above?