There are 128 teams that play at the highest level of college football, and they all start the season undefeated.
But the harsh reality is that only 11 have a legitimate chance to win the 2016 College Football Playoff. In the sixth installment of an 11-part series, we take a look at another of the few teams that could actually win the CFP: the
LSU Tigers.
Talent-wise, few teams are in better shape than LSU. Les Miles' 2016 squad is tied for the
FBS lead in returning starters and has placed in the
top 10 in ESPN's recruiting rankings for each of the past four seasons.
Here are the reasons why LSU could sweep to a national title.
The best player on this talent-stacked roster has to be running back
Leonard Fournette.
Last season, Fournette became the first player in SEC history to rush for 200 or more yards in three straight games, and he had the ninth-highest rushing yardage total in FBS history through seven games in a season (1,352).
Fournette achieved those totals via a rare combination of breakaway ability (59 rushes of 10 or more yards, tied for first among Power 5 backs) and power (2.8 yards per rush after first defensive contact, ranked third among Power 5 backs with 200 or more carries).
The Tigers also have the luxury of being able to give Fournette some rest due to the presence of backup ball carrier
Derrius Guice. Guice had the most rushing yards (436) and highest yards per carry average (8.6) among SEC freshman running backs last year, and his 161 rushing yards against South Carolina were the sixth most in a single game by a true freshman in LSU history.
These two could give LSU the best thunder-and-lightning running back combination in college football in 2016.
The passing attack is better than people realize
The Tigers' passing game was their biggest weakness last season, yet in reality, it was a lot better than generally thought.
LSU passers ranked 25th among the 65 Power 5 teams in Total QBR (67.7) last season and had a slightly higher mark if the comparison is limited to games against Power 5 foes (70.4, ranked 25th).
The Tigers also ranked 27th in vertical Total QBR (80.5 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 23rd in stretch vertical Total QBR (87.6 on attempts traveling 20 or more yards downfield).
These are all midtier performance levels, so why wasn't the passing game more productive last season?
It turned out the club faltered in the one area where it would seem it should have had the most success:
LSU ranked tied for 38th in Total QBR on play-action passes (56.3) and 50th in Total QBR on play-action vertical passes (58.2). This lack of success is part of why the Tigers ranked 50th in play-action pass attempts per game (5.8) and tied for 54th in vertical play-action pass attempts per game (2.7).
Given the incredible success of the LSU ground game, it would seem that Tigers quarterbacks ought to be able to post upper-tier numbers here. LSU has shown a commitment to improving the passing game and it has a lot of quality quarterback candidates, so following this well-defined path to that improvement could turn this into a top 20-caliber passing attack.
Ridiculous offensive line depth
The Tigers return three starters from last year's offensive line. The best of this group is second-team All-SEC center Ethan Pocic, who had 128.5 knockdown blocks (according to game-tracking numbers provided by the LSU coaching staff), the most by a Tigers offensive lineman since at least 2010. Pocic might end up moving to the tackle position, in part because SEC All-Freshman guard William Clapp (81.5 knockdown blocks, third on the team last year) can help hold down the fort in the middle of the line.
LSU also has an incredible volume of four-star recruits to fill out the rest of the offensive line roster. Included on this list is Willie Allen, who was the No. 2 ranked offensive tackle in the 2016 ESPN recruiting rankings, as well as Garrett Brumfeld (No. 1 ranked offensive guard in 2014 class), Donavaughn Campbell, Adrian Magee, K.J. Malone and Chidi Okeke.
Defensive front is loaded
New defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is implementing a change to a 3-4 scheme. That might be a cause for concern given the potential adjustment period, but the Tigers have a number of players in their defensive front seven who could make an impact in Aranda's first season.
Prime on this list is linebacker Kendall Beckwith, who was second on the team last year in tackles (84), tackles for loss (10.0) and defensive snaps (717, according to STATS, LLC).
Defensive end Lewis Neal is arguably the most underrated player on the Tigers. His eight sacks led the team last year and ranked tied for 10th in team history. Neal added more to the ledger with 9.5 tackles for loss, six passes broken up, eight quarterback hurries and one forced fumble .
ESPN True Freshman All-American defensive end Arden Key could be a breakout sophomore. He led the club in quarterback hurries (nine) and racked up 6.5 tackles for loss, five sacks and one pass breakup despite playing in only 69.4 percent of LSU's defensive snaps (560, according to STATS, LLC).
The Tigers also have a lot of linebacking talent to develop, including early enrollee ESPN 300 linebacker Michael Divinity.
Best secondary in the country?
LSU's top defensive loss might have been free safety Jalen Mills, but Mills had only three passes defensed (tied for seventh on the team), a 7.0 YPA (ranked sixth among LSU defenders with 20 or more targets), zero interceptions, one tackle for loss and one sack. Those are numbers that can be replicated, especially given the talent level in this secondary.
The best of this group might be second-team All-SEC safety Jamal Adams. He had the most pass breakups on this club last year (10) and led the team in interceptions (four).
Tre'Davious White was tied for lowest yards per attempt (YPA) total among LSU defenders with 20 or more targets last season (6.2, according to STATS, LLC). (White was a semifinalist for the 2015 Jim Thorpe Award, given to the best cornerback in college football.)
The Tigers also have three ESPN 300 cornerback prospects in Kristian Fulton, Saivion Smith and Andreaz Williams, who will all vie for playing time.
Special teams have to be better, right?
Last year was an anomaly for the Tigers' special teams, as this platoon had its lowest ever score under Miles in ESPN Stats & Information's special-teams expected points added (STEPA) metric.
STEPA measures the scoreboard impact of plays based on an expected points framework, and LSU's minus 3.3 mark in this category ranked 45th among Power 5 teams last year.
This is the first time since the 2006 season that a Miles team at LSU has posted a negative STEPA mark, so a return to normalcy in this area should put the Tigers back into positive territory in this metric.
The schedule is both brutal and an advantage
LSU has what is arguably the toughest schedule in college football. This will certainly make it difficult for the Tigers to go undefeated, but it has the benefit of providing a tiebreaking cushion that could put a one-loss LSU team into the playoffs over most or all other one-loss teams.
The bottom line
The Tigers rank first in ESPN Stats & Information's Preseason FPI version 1.0. This system uses a wide variety of components to measure a team's strength going forward and thus indicates LSU has the strongest set of factors heading into the 2016 season. Add that to the elements listed above and it makes the Tigers one of the favorites to win the national championship this season.
Look out: LSU is a huge 2016 CFP title threat