The Official Election Night Thread 2012

[TRUEST]

mitt is another kerry

 

[hayesc0]

check out the map probably president obama

Make Your Own 2012 Election Map

 

[The_King_of_Everything]

Halo 4 comes out on election day so fukk both of them

 

[NoMayo15]

Here is the deal...gut feeling economy is crap Obama hasn't stated what he would improve on. Its the stay the course mentality. Romney while not some gamechanger looks like a viable alternative to many undecideds. He did his job in pointing out the failures and looking presidential enough for Americans to say hey lets give him a try. I'm not saying Romney is going to be Ronald Reagan i expect more Chris Christie try to cut spending and not go to crazy with tax code, so i'm not that optimistic and can say that neither Romney or Obama are bold enough to do what is needed to make major shifts in the nation but Romney's slight right direction is better than Obama's slight left tilt.

Now i think you guys are being way too overconfident especially when many of the state polls are tightening up and many seem to be distorted with d+ samples that are too high based off voter id's 2010 and the enthusiasm of the republican base to ouster the incubent. I think Nate Silver is doing you guys a major disservice by weighting older polls that favor Obama more so than recent ones that are closer...Nate Silver is openly rooting for Obama so that knocks his credibility slightly. His 2008 success in hindsight wasn't that impressive to predict or to forecast. I predict 2012 dents Nate Silver's credibility unless he suddenly gets it right the day before to stay true to the game a la rasmussen in 2008. Here is the link that shows Nate Silver's flawed model...

Nate Silver

the important part is the fact of how he is weighing older polls that favor Obama more heavily thus its making his model look like an outlier compared to the rest of the more recent polls

I don't think The Coli is too optimistic, I think you are too hopeful.

You were like this in '08 -- and lets be reality, with how hated Bush was, ANY republican candidate would have had a hard time winning that election, much less a McCain/Palin ticket.

You cite Nate Silver, and I guess other polling sources as being too biased towards the Democrats. But even the "unbiased" cite that your link quotes, RCP, has Obama ahead in most battleground states by around 2 or more points. Sure, the trend is going in Romney's favor, but do you really expect him to overcome those odds in multiple states? At this point, if we assume he keeps Florida and Colorado, he would still need Ohio and Virginia, or Ohio and Wisconsin, or Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada/Iowa ... my point is there aren't a lot of easy ways for him to get 26 additional electoral votes.

On the other hand, Obama can win without coming back and winning Colorado, or Florida. If he wins Ohio, it's very unlikely that he loses this election.

You're just not being realistic, my friend. The election is in two weeks.

 

[Slim]

Check this out. If each have a 269-269 tie. the House would then decide the President. Since Republicans own (will own) the House, Romney wins.

Note: Nevada would have to go Romney for it to happen.

 

[Serious]

bro, idk how people can be sohh oblivious. These cats can't even win in their own state.



There hometown doesn't even respect them. Yet people actually want these cats as to "head" the executive branch of government.

 

[IrishBrother]

If the election was held tomorrow, Obama would win. If it was held four weeks from now, Romney. He's chipping away nicely.

Too close to call and I wouldn't write off either candidate until the other reaches 270.

 

[SumBlackguyz]

its demonic how much red there is on the map

 

[Pazzy]

there's NO way romney can win. in fact, by this time next week, romney will be losing. his momentum is dead. all of the toss up states are on obama's side. dude is going to lose.

 

[acri1]

Check this out. If each have a 269-269 tie. the House would then decide the President. Since Republicans own (will own) the House, Romney wins.

Note: Nevada would have to go Romney for it to happen.

Possible...but I don't see Nevada or Iowa going to Romney. Nate Silver gives Obama a 73% chance of winning Nevada and a 64% chance of wining Iowa. He'd have to lose both for this to happen.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

New Time poll out has +5 in OH. 2nd poll out today with him up considerably. SurveyUSA has him +3.

 

[Pazzy]

Check this out. If each have a 269-269 tie. the House would then decide the President. Since Republicans own (will own) the House, Romney wins.

Note: Nevada would have to go Romney for it to happen.

that's not going to happen. obama is pretty much leading in most of the swing states and romney is slowly losing ground. by this time, next week romney will be behind in the polls and in all the swing states.

i think it's safe to say that those last two debates did damage.

what obama is doing is basically letting romney ether himself. he pretty much let romney gain whatever momentum he could and is chipping away at it so he can get a win for the election. it is highly unlikely romney is going to be able to win enough electoral votes. at this point, he needs to keep campaigning in those swing states but obama is pretty much going all out calling for everyone to vote. obama is going to win this election.

it's going to be crazy seeing how many people flip out over it though. they're going to accuse him of cheating and demand a recount. that's not likely if you follow up looking at the polls in the swing states.

 

[88m3]

Allegedly Obama is loosing Woman Voters

 

[Pazzy]

Allegedly Obama is loosing Woman Voters

where have you heard this @?

 

[88m3]

where have you heard this @?

BBC/NPR