The Official Election Night Thread 2012

[Good Guy Guevara]

so anybody have any good info on the house/senate projections?

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Nate da Gawd has the Dems maintaining a majority.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

so anybody have any good info on the house/senate projections?

Last I heard Repubs are supposed to pick up about 2 or 3 Senate seats and lose about 10-15 in the House. So basically nothing will change.

 

[dtownreppin214]

Last I heard Repubs are supposed to pick up about 2 or 3 Senate seats and lose about 10-15 in the House. So basically nothing will change.

so 4 more years of gridlock...

 

[Good Guy Guevara]

That Denver debate was Romneys "convention bounce" and now its stabilizing. You have to remove yourself from the medias echo chamber about this race. They've known since August that the electoral math doesn't add up for Romney but they don't want to say it.

 

[Yogi]

That Denver debate was Romneys "convention bounce" and now its stabilizing. You have to remove yourself from the medias echo chamber about this race. They've known since August that the electoral math doesn't add up for Romney but they don't want to say it.

Yep. The guys that write the headlines are doing all they can to highlight Romney's perceived momentum while downplaying Obama's electoral advantages.

 

[Robbie3000]

I put all my most of my Coli Cash on Obama. The rest on electoral college being less than 293.

I think i'll good that day.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

 

[kevin arnold]

i didn't really like martin bashir

but she shyts on ryan and romney on a daily basis, my goodness

 

[TRUEST]

i didn't really like matin basher

but she shyts on ryan and romney on a daily basis, my goodness

he sure does lol

 

[Tony D'Amato]

I cant watch anymore election coverage on the news. Fukkers try to get people anxious.

Is Romney really gaining with women?

Then whats up with these national polls? When in history has a candidate constantly been down nationally and won the election?

 

[Slystallion]

I cant watch anymore election coverage on the news. Fukkers try to get people anxious.

Is Romney really gaining with women?

Then whats up with these national polls? When in history has a candidate constantly been down nationally and won the election?

yeah a lot of these national polls have romney up 50-47 and in Ohio he's up big with independents and made a stronghold on women...

that has to translate to states...no way Romney wins by 3 pts and then loses the electoral college something isn't adding up we will find out nov 6

i'm seeing both sides being very confident so i hope i don't have big hw or an exam on nov 7th cuz i will be glued to my tv that night

 

[Robbie3000]

I cant watch anymore election coverage on the news. Fukkers try to get people anxious.

Is Romney really gaining with women?

Then whats up with these national polls? When in history has a candidate constantly been down nationally and won the election?

Fivethirtyeight is good as gold. Here was Nate's prediction in 2008:

In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).[27] Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.

The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race. But the near stalemate in Minnesota led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day.[28] And in Georgia, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican Saxby Chambliss, a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

Fivethirtyeight is good as gold. Here was Nate's prediction in 2008:

Yup. Take Nate's word to the bank. He has Obama now up to a 72% chance of winning btw.

 

[skb1065]

Yup. Take Nate's word to the bank. He has Obama now up to a 72% chance of winning btw.

Breh, theres that 28% chance

 

[Alexander The Great]

this is gonna be a really close election. real close.