Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

4. 2018 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 37-11 (.771)
Quarterbacks faced: Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff
Road games: 1
Super Bowl result: Win, 13-3

The first meeting between Mahomes and Brady in the playoffs was a classic. With the Chiefs hosting the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium, the Patriots got up 14-0 early and led 17-7 at the start of the fourth quarter before Mahomes settled down and got going. The lead changed four times in the final stanza. The Chiefs took control with 2:03 left and intercepted Brady with 1:01 to go, only for Dee Ford to be flagged for offside. Rex Burkhead scored with 39 seconds left, only for Mahomes to hit two passes and get the Chiefs into field goal range. Harrison Butker's kick sent the game into overtime, but Brady led a 13-play drive in overtime to score a touchdown without giving Mahomes the ball back.

Goff was more highly regarded two years ago than he is now, but the Patriots stifled the opposing passer and the rest of Sean McVay's offense. The Patriots ran the same pass concept three times in a row to set up their only touchdown of the game. Every one of the Super Bowl runs before this one had an obvious weak point (or multiple weak points) at quarterback, but this was a group with three above-average (or better) signal-callers.



3. 2003 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 35-13 (.729)
Quarterbacks faced: Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Win, 32-29

Brady was a bigger part of the offense in his second Super Bowl run, but the defense really carried the team through the AFC playoffs. The Pats beat McNair's Titans 17-14 and then intercepted Peyton Manning four times in a brutal AFC Championship Game. Belichick's Patriots won 24-14, which led to Bill Polian's Colts complaining to the league about the clutching and grabbing done by New England's defensive backs. The league responded by making illegal contact a point of emphasis, which opened up the passing game for Brady in the years to come. Oops.

Delhomme might stick out on this list, but the Panthers were a run-heavy team that year, with Delhomme mostly hitting shots off of play-action. That held up in the Super Bowl, as he completed just 48.5% of his passes but averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and threw for three touchdowns. The Pats needed Brady in the Super Bowl, and he responded with what was his best playoff game up to that point, throwing for 354 yards and three touchdowns before leading another game-winning drive to set up Vinatieri.



2. 2004 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 40-8 (.833)
Quarterbacks faced: Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb
Road games: 1
Super Bowl result: Win, 24-21

This could have been No. 1; it's comfortably the most difficult slate Brady had to run through with the Patriots. Their divisional round game was against a 12-4 Colts team that scored nearly 33 points per contest; Belichick's defense held them to three points. Despite going 14-2 in the regular season, the Patriots were the second seed in the AFC and had to travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers, who had broken their 21-game winning streak earlier in the season and gone 15-1 with a rookie Roethlisberger. The defense forced four takeaways, scored once and set up several short fields for the offense in a 41-27 rout.

The Eagles team the Patriots faced in the Super Bowl was the best Philly team of the Andy Reid era, a 13-3 juggernaut that comfortably ran through the NFC playoffs. The final score was closer than the game, given that the Eagles scored a touchdown with 1:55 to go. McNabb is not a Hall of Famer, but the other two opposing quarterbacks are, and McNabb was an above-average starter for a long time. This is a pretty rough slate of opposing quarterbacks.




1. 2020 Buccaneers
Opponents' combined record: 46-18 (.719)
Quarterbacks faced: Taylor Heinicke, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes
Road games: 3
Super Bowl result: ???

That slate of quarterbacks, however, doesn't compare to what Brady has faced and will face this season. Put Heinicke and Washington aside and Brady will have faced three no-doubt Hall of Famers. (Mahomes could retire tomorrow and get in.) Brees was a shell of his usual self in the Superdome, but the rookie version of Roethlisberger whom Brady faced in 2004 wasn't at his peak, either. All three of the Bucs' playoff games were also on the road, matching Brady's combined total from his first nine Super Bowl runs.

Washington drags down that combined record, too; throw it out (since the Pats didn't play a wild-card round game in their nine trips with Brady) and the three teams the Bucs will have to beat to win a Super Bowl posted a combined record of 39-9, good for an .813 win percentage. It's an incredible accomplishment for the Bucs to get as far as they have, even if they come up short at home against the Chiefs in two weeks.

Is the Bucs' run the toughest slate ever?
Brady might be facing the toughest test of his postseason powers ever, but I don't think it would qualify as the most difficult path we've ever seen. Depending on which measure we use, Tampa Bay's 2020 playoff schedule would rank around 10th for the most difficult postseason schedule. (This only includes teams who needed to win four games to win a Super Bowl, because it's almost always going to be tougher than any three-game schedule.)

In the end, with apologies to the 1985 Patriots and 1999 Titans, there are two teams whose playoff schedules stand out as the most difficult since the merger. Like this year's Bucs, they needed to win three road games to make it to the Super Bowl. And, in what will be exciting news for Tampa Bay fans, both of those teams were sharpened by their experiences and won in the Super Bowl. Here are the top two and how they got there:



2005 Steelers
Opponents' combined record: 51-13 (.797)
Quarterbacks faced: Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna, Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer, Matt Hasselbeck
Road games: 3
Super Bowl result: Win, 21-10

I put Palmer and Kitna together on that ledger because of what happened in the wild-card round. Palmer found Chris Henry for a 66-yard completion on his first pass attempt of the game, only to be hit by Kimo von Oelhoffen and suffer a multi-ligament knee injury. Kitna played the rest of the way in a 31-17 defeat.

The next week, Bill Cowher's defense upset the Colts as 8.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis, although it wasn't without drama. Jerome Bettis fumbled on the 2-yard line as the Steelers were trying to seal the game with 1:20 to go, and Roethlisberger had to make a game-saving tackle on the return. Manning drove the Colts into field goal range, but Mike Vanderjagt -- who had gone 23-of-25 that season -- missed a 46-yard field goal that would have forced overtime.

Plummer and Hasselbeck weren't on Manning's level, but both the Broncos and Seahawks sported fearsome rushing attacks. The Pittsburgh defense forced four turnovers from Plummer in a 34-17 rout at Mile High, a place where Denver had previously gone 12-2 in the postseason. Shaun Alexander ran the ball 20 times for 95 yards in the Super Bowl, and Roethlisberger posted a passer rating of 22.6, but the Steelers forced the Seahawks to go 5-of-17 on third down and got a 75-yard touchdown run from Willie Parker before Antwaan Randle El threw a touchdown pass to Super Bowl MVP Hines Ward. This wasn't the prettiest Super Bowl run, but the Steelers got the job done.



2007 Giants
Opponents' combined record: 51-13 (.797)
Quarterbacks faced: Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Tom Brady
Road games: 3
Super Bowl result: Win, 17-14

The Giants faced two Hall of Famers during their run, and while Favre was 38, he had thrown for 4,155 yards that season. (Rodgers was on the bench.) The 2007 version of Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns, and Garcia made it to the Pro Bowl. Tom Coughlin's team beat two 13-3 teams (the Cowboys and the Packers) and the 16-0 Patriots to win a Super Bowl, winning three road games along the way. They won in the heat of Tampa and in sub-zero temperatures at Lambeau.

They did it by looking like a totally different team from the one that limped through the regular season. They posted a turnover differential of minus-9 during the regular season and somehow bumped that up to plus-5 across a four-game playoff run against the league's toughest competition. They held the Cowboys, the best offense in the NFC, to 17 points on nine possessions. Three weeks later, the same Patriots who dropped 38 on the Giants in Week 17 scored 14 points on nine drives. It took a miraculous catch and some well-timed takeaways, but the Giants ran off an improbable four-game winning streak and won the Super Bowl.


The 2007 Giants were not always -- or even often -- a great team. They lost 41-17 to a Vikings team with Tarvaris Jackson starting at quarterback in a game where Eli Manning threw three pick-sixes. They lost to Washington in a game where opposing starter Todd Collins went 8-of-25. They nearly lost to a 1-15 Dolphins team quarterbacked by Cleo Lemon in a game where Manning was 8-of-22 for 59 yards. Things weren't often pretty.

The Bucs can take heart in that. They've been great over the past few weeks, but these are the same Buccaneers that lost to the Bears and Nick Foles in Week 5. They needed a fourth-quarter comeback and a failed two-pointer to beat the Giants and a huge second-half comeback to beat the Chargers. History has a way of forgetting about those rough edges and disappointing performances. Tampa ended the regular season playing great football against bad competition, but after their win over Heinicke and Washington, they've beaten two of the best teams in football. They're now one win away from immortality, and if Brady does get his seventh ring, nobody will be able to say that the Buccaneers have coasted to a title.

 

[Skooby]

Debuting Mel Kiper's first 2021 NFL mock draft: Where will Fields, Wilson and Lance go?

NFL mock draft 2021: Mel Kiper's predictions for all 32 first-round picks, including Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, DeVonta Smith

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Let's kick off Urban Meyer's rebuild in Jacksonville with a franchise quarterback. Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects I've studied over the past decade, and he has all the makings of a superstar, from arm talent to size to the ability to process at the position. And we know Meyer likes him from his comments in 2019. Make no mistake, though; this is not going to be a quick fix. The Jaguars were 1-15 for a reason. They have some talent to build around on offense, with wide receivers Laviska Shenault Jr. and DJ Chark Jr. and running back James Robinson, but they need to add protection for Lawrence on the offensive line. Will free-agent left tackle Cam Robinson be back? It's no sure thing. The good news for Meyer and new general manager Trent Baalke is that they have another first-round pick (No. 25) and an extra second-round pick from the Yannick Ngakoue trade with the Vikings.

2. New York Jets
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama


This is where the intrigue in the draft begins. Will the Jets stick with quarterback Sam Darnold for another year, or will they take Zach Wilson or Justin Fields? (Or maybe even trade for Deshaun Watson?) The good news for general manager Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh is that they have three months to figure it out. This is a huge decision, and Douglas and Saleh have to be 100% sure that Wilson or Fields is an upgrade over Darnold. My feeling right now is that yes, Darnold's stats are ugly, but he's only 23 and he has had no offensive talent around him for three years. Do the Jets really want to move on from him and watch him thrive elsewhere? That's why they could give him a one-year audition under Saleh, pick the Heisman Trophy winner at No. 2, and give Darnold one more shot to put all of his talent together. Smith is the true No. 1 target Darnold hasn't had.

3. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Tua Tagovailoa was just OK in nine starts as a rookie, but he needs some help. I like DeVante Parker, but he's not a No. 1 wide receiver. Chase can be. Because Chase opted out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I think some people are forgetting how good he was in 2019, when he averaged 21.2 yards per catch and had 20 touchdowns for the national champs. Just watch Chase's athleticism and concentration on this catch. Tagovailoa won't average just 6.3 yards per attempt with the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner on the field.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

It's time for the Falcons to think long term on offense under new general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith. Quarterback Matt Ryan turns 36 this summer. Wide receiver Julio Jones will be 32 next month. Center Alex Mack is 35 and a free agent. They can build around Wilson, who had a phenomenal season for the Cougars, throwing 33 touchdown passes and only three picks, and give him at least a year to learn from Ryan and adjust to the NFL. I thought about Justin Fields here, too, but I'm giving a slight edge to Wilson for now. If Atlanta doesn't go with a quarterback, I'd expect a defender to be the target.

5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

This is all about protecting quarterback Joe Burrow, who will spend the offseason recovering from the torn left ACL and MCL he suffered in November. Burrow started 10 games, but it was clear that he wasn't comfortable behind a mediocre offensive line. The Bengals can take a step toward improvement by picking Sewell, an opt-out who was the 2019 Outland Trophy winner. He's the clear top offensive tackle in this class. Sewell could stay at left tackle while 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams moves to the right side or to guard. I have compared Sewell to Hall of Famer Anthony Munoz, and Cincinnati should be thrilled to get another foundational player.

6. Philadelphia Eagles
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Eagles had a disastrous 4-11-1 season, with quarterback Carson Wentz regressing and getting benched for rookie second-rounder Jalen Hurts. And yes, Wentz was not very good, but his receivers didn't exactly give him much help. The Eagles got only 20 total catches from veterans Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson due to injuries, and 2019 second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside barely got on the field. So even though Philadelphia drafted Jalen Reagor in Round 1 a year ago, I still see this as a hole in the offense. Waddle, one of the fastest prospects in this draft, could be the go-to target in new coach Nick Sirianni's offense. He was one of college football's most electric receivers over the past three seasons, even if he was overshadowed at times by teammates Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith. His ceiling at the next level is as a No. 1 pass-catcher.

7. Detroit Lions
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Things change quickly in the NFL. Before the news on Saturday that the Lions were going to trade quarterback Matthew Stafford this offseason, I would have said that they should keep Stafford and try to help him with a wide receiver in this draft. Alabama's Jaylen Waddle would have fit here. But instead it appears that new general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell will go all-in on a rebuild, and so Fields could be the face of it. He had an up-and-down season, but we saw the flashes of his talent, particularly in his six-touchdown performance against Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Fields has superstar potential, but he'll need help around him. Detroit will need to figure out what it's doing with free-agent wideouts Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. and make sure Fields has a chance to succeed in Year 1.

8. Carolina Panthers
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

If you're surprised that I'm thinking quarterback here, don't be. Teddy Bridgewater could be the starter again for the Panthers in 2021, but his contract shows they're not committed to him long term. Coach Matt Rhule could go after an intriguing signal-caller in Lance, who played only one game last season. With only 17 career starts -- none against an FBS opponent -- he is going to be a wild card in this draft. His 2019 season was just so, so impressive, though, and I think a team could fall in love with him in this range. If Carolina decides against drafting a quarterback in Round 1, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts would be another option.

9. Denver Broncos
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Is pass-rusher Von Miller going to return to the Broncos? What about free-agent safety Justin Simmons? This defense could look very different in Year 3 under Vic Fangio. I thought about a cornerback here, but I see linebacker as the bigger position to upgrade, and Parsons could play inside or outside. I see him more as an inside linebacker for a 3-4 defense, but his versatility would be a fit for any type of defense. Parsons, who opted out of the 2020 season, was a force at Penn State in 2019, with 109 tackles, five sacks and four forced fumbles. He has some upside as a pass-rusher.

 

[Skooby]

10. Dallas Cowboys
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern

Heading into the 2020 season, the Cowboys' offensive line looked solid on paper, and that was after center Travis Frederick retired in March. But then injuries hit: Right tackle La'el Collins missed every game; left tackle Tyron Smith played just two; and guard Zack Martin missed six. And what you saw was a poor Cowboys offense, even before quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season with an ankle injury. That's why I think Slater fits in Dallas, where he could play either tackle spot or move inside to guard. Todd McShay thinks Slater could excel at center, too. He was another prospect who opted out, but he didn't allow a single sack playing left tackle in 2019. This is a spot to watch for Patrick Surtain II as well because Chidobe Awuzie could leave in free agency.

11. New York Giants
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Quarterback Daniel Jones cut down on his turnovers and showed some improvement in Year 2, but he still averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt. Even when he gets time to throw in the pocket, he doesn't have a consistent downfield threat (though Darius Slayton was a nice fifth-round find in 2019). At 6-foot-6, Pitts has the size/speed traits to line up out wide, in the slot or next to an offensive tackle. And he showed off his ability after the catch by averaging 17.9 yards per reception with 12 touchdowns. Pitts is not a traditional tight end, but he's a skilled offensive threat. And with Evan Engram on the roster, too, the Giants would have two of the most athletic -- and versatile -- tight ends in football.

12. San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

The 49ers will likely undergo big changes on defense this offseason, with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh gone and cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and Jason Verrett all unrestricted free agents. That's why it makes sense to target a corner early. Surtain, my top-ranked corner, could be a starter on Day 1. He had 27 pass breakups and four interceptions over three seasons at Bama. At 6-2, Surtain has the size and speed to play on an island and lock down wideouts. Depending on whether San Francisco can bring back free-agent left tackle Trent Williams, offensive line could also be a position to target.

13. Los Angeles Chargers
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

With four straight wins to end the season, the Chargers likely moved themselves out of the Penei Sewell sweepstakes, but Darrisaw is a great consolation prize. He had a phenomenal 2020 season and could be quarterback Justin Herbert's long-term blindside protector. Offensive line is one of L.A.'s top needs of the offseason, and it could add to the position in free agency and in the draft. New coach Brandon Staley will get back safety Derwin James from injury, but his defensive line needs a boost, too. Keep an eye on risers between now and April.

14. Minnesota Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC

Speaking of rising prospects, Vera-Tucker has scouts around the league buzzing after a tremendous season. He moved from guard to left tackle and dominated for the Trojans. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker.

15. New England Patriots
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Like McShay, I'm thinking quarterback for the Patriots. They don't pick this high often. Why not go and get your guy and build around him? Now, that changes if Bill Belichick & Co. can make a deal to get a veteran quarterback on the trade market or if Jimmy Garoppolo gets cut by the 49ers. But with Cam Newton unlikely to return to New England, Jones could become a signal-caller to groom for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Jones can make every throw at every level of the field, and he's extremely accurate. Plus, we know that Belichick has drafted plenty of Alabama stars and trusts Nick Saban. Jones will be at the Senior Bowl this week, and I'm expecting him to impress. And yes, if you're keeping count, this makes five quarterbacks in the top 15 picks.

16. Arizona Cardinals
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

Arizona could have openings at both corner spots this offseason, with veterans Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick both on the free-agent market. If the Cardinals decide to move on from the over-30 corners, this is the best place to find a new starter. One of the first prospects to opt out of the season, 6-2 Farley looked like a star on the 2019 tape, but he is still raw. He has played defensive back only since 2018. I could also see the Cardinals keeping an eye on the wide receivers in this class; Christian Kirk has not been consistent enough to show that he can be their No. 2 wideout alongside DeAndre Hopkins.

17. Las Vegas Raiders
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami (Fla.)

This is a strange draft in that there are no dominant pass-rushers. Phillips could be the top edge prospect, and I have only a mid-first-round grade on him. But he had a dominant season for the Hurricanes after transferring from UCLA, where he had ended his career because of concussion issues. The former five-star prospect missed the 2019 season and then ended up at Miami, where he had 5.5 sacks in his final three games. Depending on his medical checks, Phillips could rise even higher. The Raiders, meanwhile, had one of the NFL's worst pass rushes again (21 sacks, fourth worst) and got only two sacks from 2019 No. 4 pick Clelin Ferrell.

18. Miami Dolphins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

If Miami adds a wide receiver with the No. 3 pick, this selection is likely going toward a defense that took a big step forward in 2020, thanks in large part to stellar corner play from Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So let's fortify the middle of the Miami D, where Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill are free agents. Owusu-Koramoah, who had 140 tackles and five forced fumbles over the past two seasons, could step right in and play one of the inside linebacker spots. He also has some pass-rush upside, as he had 8.5 sacks in 2019. The Dolphins are clearly ascending, and Owusu-Koramoah is a great fit as a speedy, sideline-to-sideline tackler.

19. Washington Football Team
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida


I would have liked to get a quarterback for Washington, but my top five are all off the board. Ron Rivera & Co. have to figure out the position, and maybe the answer is a veteran in free agency. Instead let's focus on a wide receiver group that has only Terry McLaurin as a plus starter. Kyle Pitts got a lot of the attention from people watching the Gators this season, but Toney opened the eyes of NFL scouts. He was a Swiss Army knife, catching 70 passes with 10 scores, adding a touchdown as a runner and one more on a punt return. Think of a Tyreek Hill-type playmaker who can beat teams in a variety of ways. We've already seen Washington get creative with Antonio Gibson, and it should find ways to get the ball in Toney's hands.

20. Chicago Bears
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

This is a really strong offensive tackle class, and we could see a run on them in the 20s. Jenkins started at both right tackle and left tackle for the Cowboys, and he was having a stellar season before he opted out in late November. At 6-6, 310 pounds, he has long arms and there are no questions about his size to play tackle. In Chicago, he could start immediately on the right side, where Germain Ifedi is a free agent, and be the long-term replacement to Charles Leno at left tackle. The Bears could also be in the market for a top receiver with Allen Robinson headed to free agency.

 

[Skooby]

21. Indianapolis Colts
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

With Philip Rivers retired and Jacoby Brissett a free agent, we know the Colts will be in the quarterback market this offseason. If they wait until the draft to make their move, they might have to trade up to get their guy. I don't see a fit here. Paye is a tough evaluation. He finished his four-year college career with 11.5 sacks and had only two last season. But we know that the draft is all about size/athleticism traits, even when the production doesn't match. And that's 6-4, 270-pound Paye, who is a gifted athlete. This is an upside pick, and the Colts have a hole at defensive end with Justin Houston hitting free agency.

22. Tennessee Titans
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami (FL)

This has to be an edge rusher, right? The Titans had a putrid pass rush last season, finishing with 19 total sacks, which was only two more than the last-ranked Bengals. They got very little from free-agent signing Jadeveon Clowney, and leading sacker Harold Landry finished with only 5.5. That's not good enough for a team that thinks it's a Super Bowl contender. Six-foot-7 Rousseau, another opt-out, had 15.5 sacks in a breakout 2019 season, but he doesn't have an elite first step and needs to add some moves to his repertoire. With only one year of production and no live football in a year, he's another wild card in his class. But again, teams love pass-rushers, so he could be in demand.

23. New York Jets (from SEA)
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

The Jets have needs all over. After I gave them wideout DeVonta Smith at No. 2, they really have to go with the best available prospect here to build up their talent base. I think they will likely bring back free-agent safety Marcus Maye, but we know Robert Saleh's defense is built around big defensive backs. Six-foot-1 Horn -- yes, his father is former NFL wide receiver Joe Horn -- is a fit. He had two interceptions (both in the win over Auburn) in seven games last season before he opted out, but he has great instincts in coverage and should pick off more passes in the NFL. This is also a spot to watch for edge rushers -- New York needs to improve there.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa

Pittsburgh lost five of its last six games after starting 11-0, and holes were exposed, particularly after edge rusher Bud Dupree tore his ACL in early December. And with Dupree now a free agent, this would be a pick to grab a replacement. Collins is a do-everything linebacker who had four sacks, four interceptions (two for TDs) and two forced fumbles on the way to winning the Nagurski Award last season. At 6-4, 260 pounds, he could slot into Dupree's position and excel at getting after quarterbacks or dropping into coverage to confuse offensive coordinators. Collins is a really intriguing chess piece for a smart defense. The Steelers could also think about offensive line with this pick.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

I thought about a receiver or offensive lineman here to help Trevor Lawrence, but this defense is depleted, particularly along the defensive line and in the secondary. How can we get the Jags some help? K'Lavon Chaisson, a first-rounder last year, had only one sack and nine QB hits as a rookie. Taven Bryan, a first-rounder in 2018, has only 3.5 sacks in three seasons. Barmore really came on at the end of the season, with six sacks in his final six games. He was dominant in the two College Football Playoff wins. I love the fit in Jacksonville, where he can be a penetrating 3-technique.

26. Cleveland Browns
Aaron Robinson, DB, UCF

The Browns had major issues in their secondary last season, which started in training camp when rookie safety Grant Delpit tore his Achilles tendon and second-year corner Greedy Williams hurt his shoulder. Both second-rounders ended up missing the entire season. With Robinson, Cleveland could add a big, aggressive defensive back who can play multiple positions. The 6-1 Alabama transfer played corner and nickelback for the Knights, and I could see him playing some safety in the NFL. I moved him up my rankings after watching more tape of his last two seasons.

27. Baltimore Ravens
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

The Ravens' passing attack did not take a step forward in Lamar Jackson's second full season as the starting quarterback. Marquise Brown was the only receiver who caught at least 35 passes, and even he was too inconsistent. Baltimore had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league. Adding another top-tier wideout is how it can really take the offense to the next level. Marshall was coming on as LSU's top wideout this season, and he had 10 touchdowns in seven games before he opted out of the season in November. He has some quickness in a 6-3 frame.

28. New Orleans Saints
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

It's really hard to project what the Saints are going to do because their offseason is in flux. They don't have any salary-cap space to make moves. These are of some of their pending free agents: Marcus Williams, Trey Hendrickson, Jameis Winston, Jared Cook, Sheldon Rankins and P.J. Williams. And then there's the Drew Brees dilemma, as the 42-year-old quarterback could retire. Moehrig, the top safety in my rankings, would be the successor to 33-year-old Malcolm Jenkins. He had six interceptions over the past two seasons. Again, though, this pick is more about projecting for the Saints' current needs, which could be very different in April.

29. Green Bay Packers
Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

Did you watch the Packers' secondary get torched by the Bucs in the first half of the NFC Championship Game? 2017 second-round pick Kevin King, who is now a free agent, was picked on by Tom Brady. Green Bay has to find a consistent starter opposite Jaire Alexander. Campbell has the talent to be that guy, though he had an up-and-down career at Georgia. His issue? He was too inconsistent from snap to snap. But the former five-star prospect is a gifted athlete in a 6-2 frame, and this pick is all about projecting him to improve under NFL coaching. Based on talent alone, Campbell would be a top-15 pick, but his tape could see him drop to Round 2.

 

[Skooby]

30. Buffalo Bills
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Buffalo's running game was so ineffective this season that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll cooked up a few game plans that required very few runs. Josh Allen was the Bills' leading rusher in the postseason -- by 82 yards. They should upgrade with Harris, who had a dominant season for the Crimson Tide and could also help in the passing game. With rookie Zack Moss coming off an ankle injury and Devin Singletary not an every-down player, this is where the Bills can get better immediately in 2021. And we've seen rookies come in right away and make a big impact. Offensive line is a position to watch for Buffalo; I thought about Michigan offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield here.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joe Tryon, DE, Washington

Like the Saints, Tampa Bay has a few priority free agents on the defensive side of the ball, including Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh and Lavonte David. Unlike the Saints, though, the Bucs have the cap space to bring them back if they want to. After general manager Jason Licht filled holes with his top two picks in last April's draft -- Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. were instant impact players -- he can do that again with Tryon, who had eight sacks in 2019 but opted out of this past season. With Jason Pierre-Paul now 32, Tampa could use edge rushers. That's 6-5 Tryon. Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon is another option -- he could replace Suh. (Also, Bucs fans, remember that we're using ESPN's FPI to project the order here, and it favors the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.)

32. Kansas City Chiefs
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia

Six sacks for Frank Clark. Three for Alex Okafor. One for Tanoh Kpassagnon. The Chiefs went 14-2 without much of a pass rush from the outside (Chris Jones is still a dominant interior rusher). Ojulari capped his Georgia career with three sacks in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and had 8.5 on the season. He also forced four fumbles. At 6-3, 240 pounds, he might be a better fit for a 3-4 defense, but he can get after quarterbacks with the best of them in this class. And a smart defensive coordinator will move him around on defense and let him loose.

 

[Skooby]

Barnwell creates trade offers for Deshaun Watson: Ranking all 17 from least to most likely

Did we just see the best rookie WR class ever? Revisiting our 2020 draft tiers

17 Deshaun Watson trade proposals, ranked from least likely to most likely to happen in the 2021 NFL offseason

Teams that wouldn't be interested
Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks

The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and wouldn't need to pick up the phone. Russell Wilson has a no-trade clause and isn't going anywhere, although a return to Wisconsin could be fun if QB musical chairs happened this offseason. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers were in this section before Sunday, but everything is up in the air with Green Bay after Rodgers' mysterious postgame comments.

Teams within the division
Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans


I don't think that there's any chance the Texans would be willing to deal Watson in the division and face him twice a year for the foreseeable future. It's a shame, because the Colts are probably the best landing spot on paper for Watson, and the idea of a trade involving him to the Jags for the No. 1 overall pick (and QB Trevor Lawrence) in the 2021 NFL draft is fascinating.


Remaining teams: 26 of 31

Teams with cap constraints
New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These teams are each in varying states of cap distress heading into the offseason. Even given Watson's relatively modest $10.5 million cap hold for 2021, the Eagles and Saints don't really have a way to add that much to their cap given their outgoing free agents and current cap construction. The Buccaneers are up against it and committed to Tom Brady in the short term; Brady also has a full no-trade clause.


Remaining teams: 23 of 31

A team that doesn't have enough draft capital
Los Angeles Rams

The Rams could make the cap elements of a Watson trade work if they sent Jared Goff back to Houston, but the Texans would also be looking at a minimum of two first-rounders alongside a quarterback of Goff's stature to get a deal done. The Rams don't have their first-round pick (or several of their late-round selections) in 2021, meaning the Texans would be forced to wait a year before getting their first significant draft pick back from Los Angeles.

That sort of pause probably means that L.A. would need to send three first-rounders and its starting quarterback to get a Goff-for-Watson swap finished. Those are picks it needs to use elsewhere on its roster. The Rams also play in Houston next season, which won't help their case in trying to get a deal like this done.


Remaining teams: 22 of 31

Teams in which Watson could use his no-trade clause
Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions

Watson has a no-trade clause, which will allow him to avoid any options that don't seem particularly appealing. We don't know which teams Watson would insist on avoiding, but it's reasonable to start with a pair of rebuilding teams.

The Bengals weren't able to keep pass pressure off rookie Joe Burrow in 2019. The Lions are starting over as they trade Matthew Stafford; they could package the picks they get for Stafford and use them to make a run at Watson, but Detroit still wouldn't be a desirable destination.

Remaining teams: 20 of 31

Teams that would have to make an impractical swap of QB
Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

These are three teams that might prefer Watson to their existing young star under center. If the Texans were interested in a straight one-for-one swap, it's not out of the question that the Cardinals, Ravens and Bills would consider making that move. If the Texans call those teams, they should at least pick up the phone.

Chances are, though, that the Texans would ask for significant draft compensation alongside Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen to get a Watson swap done. Jackson and Allen are eligible for new contracts this offseason, and Murray will get one after the 2021 season. Watson for Allen would be one thing, but the Bills probably aren't shipping off a first-round pick alongside Allen to make it happen. Would be a fun challenge trade, though.


Remaining teams: 17 of 31

 

[Skooby]

The 17 teams that could trade for Watson
These are teams that could at least plausibly consider a Watson deal, ranked from least likely to most likely. Let's start with the Packers and work our way down, adding what each of their various trade proposals might look like:

17. Green Bay Packers
Regardless of what the Packers' plan might have been immediately after drafting Jordan Love in Round 1 last April, I thought there was a 0% chance of them trading Aaron Rodgers this offseason after he produced an MVP-caliber season in 2020. It's one thing for the Chargers not to re-sign Drew Brees in 2006 after he injured his shoulder to turn things over to a top-five pick in Philip Rivers, but the Packers would be moving on from a franchise icon and a guy who (likely) just won MVP to hand things over to a quarterback with zero career pass attempts. It took some confidence for general manager Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur to take Love in the first round and trust that Rodgers didn't need another receiver this offseason, but trading Rodgers right now would be putting their jobs in the same risk category Bill O'Brien occupied at the end with Houston.

The needle has gone from 0% to maybe 1%. My guess is that Rodgers is posturing to try to get the Packers to make those investments around him that they didn't make last offseason. I'm also in the middle of an exhaustive column about possible trade options a quarterback who looked to be a Texans player for the foreseeable future as recently as a few months ago, so it's impossible to rule anything out.

With that being said, it's tough to make the math in a Rodgers-for-Watson trade work. Watson will cost somewhere around three first-round picks. Rodgers wouldn't cost quite as much because he's 12 years older than Watson, but he would cost at least two first-round picks, if not more. Green Bay could trade Rodgers for two first-rounders and then try to flip those picks to the Texans for Watson, but are they really going to give up on Love before ever seeing him take a regular-season snap? Then again, if they can get Watson, are they going to let Love stand in the way?


Here's a proposal that could work:

Packers send: QB Aaron Rodgers (to 49ers), 30th overall pick in 2021, QB Jordan Love (to Texans)
49ers send: 12th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick (to Texans), 2022 second-round pick (to Packers), QB Jimmy Garoppolo (to Patriots)
Texans send: QB Deshaun Watson (to Packers), 2022 fourth-round pick (to 49ers)
Patriots send: 142nd overall pick (to 49ers)

Just a classic four-team trade with an MVP bouncing around. Let's unpack this. The 49ers finally get Rodgers after drafting Alex Smith ahead of him all those years ago. They're sending out two first-rounders and a second-rounder and getting a fourth-rounder back from the Texans. This seems like a lot, but we know the 49ers are willing to go over the top to land a player when they really want them. They have to be considered Super Bowl favorites over the next two years if they get Rodgers, and if they win a Super Bowl, nobody will care about the picks they gave up.

They also get a fifth-round pick from the Patriots for Garoppolo, who has a no-trade clause in his deal for 2021 and can limit where he goes. Garoppolo's motivation to accept a trade would be financial, as the former Patriots backup is unlikely to get the $25 million due on his current deal in 2021 if he's cut. The Patriots could play chicken and try to wait for Jimmy G to get cut before signing him to a new deal, but they run the risk of losing him, potentially to a team such as the Texans or Jets. A deal for a late-round pick makes sense for both sides.

The Texans are shipping out Watson and getting a pick haul in return. They get three first-round picks, including the 12th and 30th selections in the 2021 draft. They don't have a clear path toward their quarterback of the future with those selections, so they get one in this trade with Love, who isn't part of Green Bay's future plans if the Packers trade for Watson. Green Bay then gets a late second-rounder for Love, although the pick comes from the 49ers.

16. Chicago Bears
Bears send: 20th and 52nd picks in 2021, 2022 first- and fourth-round picks, 2023 first-round pick, QB Nick Foles
Texans send: 2023 fifth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

Frankly, the Bears probably belong on the list of teams I can't see making a Watson trade. This organization didn't even interview Watson before the 2017 draft, when general manager Ryan Pace fell in love with North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and traded up to grab the oft-frustrating starter at No. 2 overall. Watson said that he has no hard feelings, but would you want to go play for a team that didn't want you coming out of college?

Allen Robinson hitting free agency. They are already $10.5 million over the cap before re-signing their star wideout or adding Watson, and trading Foles would free up only $1.3 million in room. Chicago went 8-8 this season and made the playoffs, but I'm not sure this team is in better shape than the Texans. Watson might turn down this deal.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers send: 24th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 third-round pick, OLB T.J. Watt, FB Derek Watt
Texans send: 2023 fifth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

Technically, the Steelers can fit Watson under their cap if they were to move on from Ben Roethlisberger, which would free up $19 million in space. (I assume that Roethlisberger would retire if he were traded to another team, making this idea a non-starter.) Pittsburgh is in rough cap shape and needs to use these first-round picks to replace outgoing free agents such as Alejandro Villanueva and Bud Dupree.

T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, and this would be a roundabout way of using some of that defensive core to build their future on offense. The chances of the Steelers moving on from Watt and Dupree in the same offseason are basically nil, but Pittsburgh could at least try to use the $10.1 million it saves from trading Watt to work on locking up Dupree. The Texans would reunite the Watt brothers in Houston, something previously only accomplished in sandwich commercials. This one isn't much more than a pipe dream.

14. Cleveland Browns
Browns send: 26th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Baker Mayfield, WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Texans send: QB Deshaun Watson

Well, this would be total chaos. The Browns just got Mayfield back on track after a frustrating 2019 and have a big decision to make about extending him on a long-term deal. General manager Andrew Berry was in the building when the Browns drafted Mayfield, but the coach (Hue Jackson) and general manager (John Dorsey) who selected the Oklahoma quarterback are no longer part of the organization. And while Mayfield looked great in December and January, Watson has simply been at a different level during his time as a pro.

DeAndre Hopkins in Beckham, who is coming off a torn ACL. This probably is right up there with the T.J. Watt trade; they'll get a little more plausible as we go along.

13. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys send: 10th overall pick in 2021, 2023 first-round pick, QB Dak Prescott
Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

In the same way that the Texans don't want to trade Watson within the division, moving their star quarterback to the other team in Texas might be a non-starter. If it isn't, though, there's a logical deal to be made here. The Cowboys haven't been able to come to terms on a long-term extension with Prescott, whose numbers since the start of 2019 aren't far off from Watson's. The Texans probably would be relieved to give Prescott the deal he wants, which would likely be a three-year extension on top of a $37.7 million franchise tag for 2021. Prescott would need to be tagged by the Cowboys, sign the tag and agree to terms on an extension with the Texans to get this deal done.


The Cowboys would get Watson at a cheaper price than the amount it would take to lock up Prescott, and because Prescott might be a like-for-like replacement, they would need to give up only two first-round picks to get the deal done. Watson is also under contract for five more seasons, and the Cowboys would be able to use his $35 million base salary in 2022 to help restructure the deal and defray the cap concerns related to the deal. I don't think Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would mind trying to get a leg up on his in-state rivals, and Watson would step into one of the league's best offenses.

 

[Skooby]

12. New York Giants
Giants send: 11th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, QB Daniel Jones
Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

Jones showed virtually no growth in his second season, as his numbers stagnated or declined across the board. He missed two-plus games with injuries and led the league in fumbles for the second consecutive season. The best arguments that he's an NFL-caliber starting quarterback consist of his frame and the fact that at least one team thought he was worth the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft. I'm not sure anybody is higher on Jones than the guy who would be trading him away, Giants general manager Dave Gettleman.

11. Atlanta Falcons
Falcons send: Fourth and 98th overall picks in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick, WR Calvin Ridley
Texans send: QB Deshaun Watson

The Falcons have a lot the Texans would want. They would be able to give the Texans the fourth overall pick in April's draft, which Houston could use on its quarterback of the future. They could send Houston's long-term replacement for DeAndre Hopkins in Ridley, who is eligible for an extension this year. A Ridley extension could be too costly for a Falcons team that already has so much invested on offense. Ridley is a valuable player in his own right, and the high draft pick in 2021 keeps the Falcons from needing to offer three first-rounders.

Matt Ryan. Atlanta would need to release its starting quarterback with a post-June 1 designation, which would free up $17.5 million in cap space this year. Trading Ryan before June 1 would leave $44.4 million in dead money on Atlanta's cap, a non-starter for a team $33.2 million over the threshold next year. Ryan would seem like a natural fit for the Colts or Patriots in free agency.

10. Minnesota Vikings
Vikings send: 14th and 90th overall picks in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick (to Texans), QB Kirk Cousins (to Patriots)
Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson (to Vikings)
Patriots send: 2022 fifth-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick, QB Jarrett Stidham (to Texans)

If the Vikings want to get out of Cousins' two-year, $68 million extension and make a massive upgrade at quarterback with Watson, it's going to cost them the full freight price of three first-round picks. They'll also have to swap a third-rounder in 2021 for a fourth-rounder two years from now. The Texans would come away with three first-rounders, although none of them would be higher than the 14th overall selection. New Houston general manager Nick Caserio also would take a flier on Stidham, who got a handful of snaps in garbage time for the Patriots this season.

9. Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders send: 17th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, QB Marcus Mariota (to Texans), QB Derek Carr (to Colts)
Texans send: 2022 third-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson (to Raiders)
Colts send: 84th overall pick in 2021 (to Raiders), 2022 fourth-round pick (to Texans)

Back-to-back three-way trades! Do you think Jon Gruden left the broadcast booth to go .500? The Raiders improved for the third consecutive season, but after their disastrous collapse in the fourth quarter against the Dolphins, Gruden's Raiders have yet to post a winning season or make it to the playoffs. Carr has been the least of their problems for most of that stretch, but the 29-year-old wasn't drafted by Gruden and has two years left on his existing deal. The former Bucs coach has stuck with Carr, but he has also had a wandering eye with quarterbacks and glowing things to say about Watson since he entered the league. Watson's mobility and improvisational skills would give the Raiders another element on offense.

Carr wouldn't make much sense for the Texans as they rebuild. Trading Watson to the Colts would be one thing, but a three-way deal where Carr ends up on the Colts wouldn't be as troubling to swallow for Texans fans. (Texans fans might not want another go-round with a member of the Carr family.) The Colts would get a short-term, high-floor solution at quarterback, the Raiders would get the quarterback they need to get over the top, and the Texans would start over with three first-round picks, a midround selection, and the opportunity to buy low on Mariota. This trade doesn't fix Las Vegas' disastrous defense, but it won't matter if Watson and Gruden score enough.

8. Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers send: 13th overall pick in 2021, 2022 second-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, QB Justin Herbert
Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

As a successful rookie quarterback set to make less than $5 million combined over the next two years before even becoming eligible for an extension, Herbert is one of the most valuable trade pieces in the league. I'm not sure the Chargers can justify attaching even two first-round picks with Herbert given how much flexibility he affords them elsewhere on the roster. Los Angeles realistically needs to use this offseason to grab offensive linemen around him, but if it trades for Watson, it probably doesn't have the cap room to expand the trade out with more first-rounders to try to also include someone such as Laremy Tunsil in the deal.

For a team that was having trouble selling tickets in a soccer stadium, though, Watson gives them a marquee name to build around as the Chargers try to sell season tickets in SoFi Stadium this year. Herbert exceeded expectations as a rookie and looks like a really exciting prospect, but he's not the sort of sure thing that Watson is after a much larger sample of pro passes. Starting over with Herbert would be close to ideal for the Texans, although they probably didn't scout the Oregon product much in 2019 given that they already had their quarterback and didn't have a first-round pick.

7. New York Jets
Jets send: Second and 23rd overall picks in 2021, first-round pick in 2022
Texans send: 2022 sixth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

In terms of the draft capital, this is the easiest deal to make. The Texans would be able to draft any quarterback not named Trevor Lawrence with the No. 2 pick. Caserio would probably hold out for the Jets' first-round pick in 2022 as opposed to Seattle's pick, but if they can get a Watson deal done, I don't think Jets general manager Joe Douglas is going to let that stand in the way. The sixth-rounder is a small offering for the Jets making that sacrifice.

Mekhi Becton, but the rest of their line is subpar to go with one of the worst receiving corps in football. Watson reportedly wanted the Texans to interview Robert Saleh, but the star quarterback hasn't crossed paths with Saleh for any extended period of time. Most importantly, the Jets have been one of the most dysfunctional franchises in football over the past decade. Is Watson really confident enough in Saleh to come to New York for a Jets team in a seemingly endless rebuild? I would be surprised if it was his first choice.

6. Washington Football Team
Washington sends: 19th and 74th overall picks in 2021, 2022 first- and fourth-round picks, 2023 first-round pick
Texans send: QB Deshaun Watson

Ron Rivera's team went 7-9, but it made the postseason despite starting three different quarterbacks in the regular season and a fourth in the playoffs. Washington is likely to move on from 36-year-old Alex Smith this offseason, and Watson would give it the best chance of controlling a wide-open NFC East again in 2021. This organization has tried to find and retain a superstar quarterback for the entirety of the Daniel Snyder era. Watson would give Washington the passer it has long sought.


The Texans would get three first-round picks and an extra third-rounder for their troubles, but again, there's a legitimate question about the no-trade clause. Watson might not be willing to go to an organization that has spent most of the past two decades in disarray.

5. New England Patriots
Patriots send: 15th overall pick and third-round compensatory selection in 2021 draft, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, CB J.C. Jackson, WR N'Keal Harry
Texans send: 2022 sixth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson, TE Kahale Warring

Texans fans who are already upset about the Patriots-ization of their franchise would be even more furious to see their star quarterback head to New England. The Patriots might have to go a little over the odds, then, to get a deal done. The Pats would send only two first-round picks as part of this deal, but they would also attach second- and third-round picks and a star cornerback in Jackson, who intercepted nine passes this season. Jackson is a restricted free agent, so the Texans would need to negotiate a new deal with Jackson as part of the trade. Harry would be a flier after two disappointing seasons since being drafted in the first round.


Jarrett Stidham, a fourth-round pick in 2019, hasn't looked like a viable answer. Belichick is already the most successful coach in modern league history, but he isn't getting any younger. Neither is team owner Robert Kraft. Their quickest path to another Super Bowl is getting a superstar quarterback.

 

[Skooby]

4. Denver Broncos
Broncos send: Ninth and 40th overall picks in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, WR Tim Patrick, QB Drew Lock
Texans send: 2022 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

Incoming general manager George Paton has said kind things about Lock, but the Missouri product hasn't shown much more than glimpses of promise over his first 18 pro starts. The Broncos have also surrounded Lock with talent, so it's hard to believe that he's about to make a Josh Allen-esque leap by adding more pieces this upcoming offseason. Anything is possible, but the Broncos aren't going to let Lock get in the way of a Watson trade if they decide the price is right.

This would be a pretty massive haul, with Denver shipping off two first-round picks (including a top-10 pick in 2021), two second-rounders and two players. Lock would be the favorite to start in Houston in 2021, while Patrick is a restricted free agent who impressed while Courtland Sutton was out this season. With Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the fold, it's difficult to see the Broncos making a big commitment to Patrick.

Von Miller this offseason. Paton spent his time in Minnesota working for a great team that didn't always have great quarterback play. He could rectify that problem with his first big move.

3. San Francisco 49ers
49ers send: 12th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first- and second-round picks (to Texans), 2023 third-round pick, S Tarvarius Moore, QB Jimmy Garoppolo (to Jets)
Jets send: QB Sam Darnold (to Texans), 2022 fifth-round pick (to 49ers)
Texans send: QB Deshaun Watson (to 49ers)

The 49ers can credibly suggest that they're Super Bowl contenders if they add Watson, who would be moving into a quarterback-friendly scheme with weapons galore. They might be in position to add a passer on a rookie deal, but Watson would be a bet that they can outscore anybody on offense. This would be a huge package, including four draft picks and two veterans, but general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan haven't been shy about paying over the odds for the guys they want. If they want Watson, they aren't going to let a price tag get in the way.

Garoppolo has two years and about $50.4 million remaining on his deal, and given his recent injury history, he doesn't have much trade value beyond a midround pick. He's not much use to a rebuilding Texans team, although Caserio & Co. certainly know him from their time in New England. The Jets would seem like a curious choice, but Robert Saleh just spent three years with Garoppolo (and Moore) in San Francisco. The Jets could buy low on Garoppolo if they don't like any of the quarterbacks in April's draft class and then use the second overall pick on a wide receiver such as Ja'Marr Chase or DeVonta Smith.

2. Carolina Panthers
Panthers send: Eighth and 39th overall picks in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, QB Teddy Bridgewater
Texans send: 2022 third-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson

The Panthers probably aren't in position to get the quarterback of their dreams at No. 8, which means they'll either need to trade up a few spots or make a massive deal for Watson. This would be a dramatic move for Matt Rhule and new general manager Scott Fitterer, but Carolina was frustrated with Bridgewater by the end of the season and might be inclined to swap draft capital for a long-term solution at the most important position in sports.

1. Miami Dolphins
Dolphins send: Third, 36th and 113th picks in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick (to Texans), QB Tua Tagovailoa (to Bears)
Texans send: QB Deshaun Watson, G Senio Kelemete, 2022 third-round pick (to Dolphins)
Bears send: 20th overall pick in 2021 (to Texans), 2022 fourth-round pick, 2023 conditional pick (to Dolphins)

The most obvious trade partners for Watson are in Miami, given the possibility of getting a sure thing at quarterback for the Dolphins and the massive amount of draft capital they can send back to the Texans. That's clear. Finding the exact parameters of a trade that works is tougher. The Texans will want three first-round picks and for one of those picks to be the selection they sent to the Dolphins in the Tunsil trade, which now sits as the No. 3 overall pick. They will also probably want Tagovailoa, who is of little use to the Dolphins if they trade for Watson.

It's possible that the Dolphins just say that they're willing to give up whatever it takes to get Watson and make the deal, but that would be too much. The third overall pick alone could turn into multiple first-rounders from a team looking to grab a quarterback. Tagovailoa was the fifth overall pick a year ago, and while he struggled in 2021, that was in a COVID-abbreviated offseason coming off hip surgery. The Dolphins aren't going to treat Tagovailoa like he's Josh Rosen when it comes to trade value.



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I'm also not sure the Texans would automatically accept Tagovailoa as part of a deal. Again, given that they didn't have a first-round pick and didn't anticipate that they would be replacing Watson, I'm guessing that they didn't do much more than the most basic due diligence on the Alabama star during his final year in school. They might prefer to draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick and start over as opposed to inheriting Tagovailoa and using that pick on a receiver.

By introducing the Bears, we can make a more logical deal. The Texans get three first-rounders, including the No. 3 selection from the Fins and the 20th pick from the Bears. The Dolphins get Watson and Kelemete, who would represent interior line depth for a team that needs the help up front. Miami still has its own first- and second-round picks to add weapons for Watson, but it's in position to compete for the AFC East immediately.

The Bears send their first-round pick and a future fourth-rounder to start over at quarterback with Tagovailoa, who would be the low-cost option they need as they try to retain an expensive veteran core. He would be due about $10 million guaranteed over the next three seasons, and his ability to throw on the run would play up under Matt Nagy. Tagovailoa might just turn out to be the next Trubisky, but the Bears don't have many other options under center. Miami would get a conditional pick in 2023 if Tagovailoa emerges as a star.

 

[Skooby]

2020 NFL rookie wide receiver tiers revisited: Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb lead historic class

The 2020 NFL rookie class at wide receiver carried a pile of expectations into a strange, unprecedented season long before the first pass was thrown.

Despite no on-field work in the offseason due to COVID-19 restrictions, no preseason games and a slew of largely virtual-only meetings with their position coaches, the group did exactly what people in the league believed it would -- have immediate, even historical, impact.

Eight rookies topped 50 receptions this past season, five topped 800 receiving yards and seven caught at least five touchdown passes. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the five rookies with at least 800 yards receiving tied for the most in a season, equalling the 2014 group -- Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Jordan Matthews and Sammy Watkins -- that topped 800 yards.

The Elias Sports Bureau said the combined 12,919 yards receiving by rookies this season was the most in league history. Justin Jefferson, the Minnesota Vikings' first-round pick, set the rookie record for receiving yards (1,400), eclipsing a record that had stood for almost two decades. Jefferson's 88 receptions broke the Vikings' franchise record for rookies, pushing Jefferson past none other than Hall of Famer Randy Moss. Jefferson led all the league's rookies in targets, catches, receiving yards and receiving yards per target.

"Everything about that kid is special, he's got special written on him," Vikings running back Dalvin Cook said. "The first time I met him, he came in and just the way he carried himself. ... Just to come in and make plays, be him, and I haven't seen him shy away from any big moment. I love being around him, that's my brother. I think he's just scratching the surface if you ask me."

Thirty-five receivers were chosen in last year's NFL draft, including six in the first round, seven in the second round and three in the third round. By season's end, 33 of those receivers had seen game action.

Last March ESPN polled scouts, pro personnel executives, coaches and general managers -- and rolled the tape -- about this receiver class and then put the prospects into tiers. Eleven months later, we visited with many of those same people to ask how they felt about players after a full regular season. Here's a look at the best of the 2020 wide receiver rookie class.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Pick: No. 22
Stats: 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, 7 TDs, 15.9 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 3 (top 40 talent)

What they're saying now: "The thing that's separated him is his football IQ. He's got an exceptional football IQ whether it's running routes, scheme, what you're trying to do, leverage, all those things that maybe it takes guys some time to catch up, he's way ahead.'' -- former Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Pick: No. 17
Stats: 74 receptions, 935 yards, 5 TDs, 12.6 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 2 (top 15 talent)

What they're saying now: "Even without Dak (Prescott) for most of the year, he showed rare play-making ability. If Dak's throwing him the ball for 16 games, he might be rookie of the year.'' -- AFC personnel executive

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: No. 33
Stats: 57 catches, 908 yards, 6 TDs, 13.6 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 3 (top 40 talent)

What they're saying now: "The guy made the most of his targets, had (two) 100-yard games when (Joe) Burrow was back there. I like how he battles for the ball.'' -- NFC pro personnel director

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: No. 49
Stats: 62 receptions, 873 yards, 9 TDs, 14.1 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 4 (top 100 talent)

What they're saying now: "He kind of got caught when their offense became so much short stuff and the quick game. ... There's a lot there and I think he transitioned faster than I thought he might. At the combine some people were thinking he might be a tight end.'' -- AFC general manager

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Pick: No. 15
Stats: 52 catches, 856 yards, 3 TDs, 16.5 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 1 (top 10 talent)

What they're saying now: "I knew the (Chargers game) was going to be one of the last bad games of my whole life (five drops) ... My rookie season, it was a good start, but I feel like there's a lot more I need to work on. It could have been better." -- Jeudy

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Pick: No. 25
Stats: 60 receptions, 748 yards, 5 TDs, 12.5 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: : Tier 4 (top 100 talent)

What they're saying now: "Thought he closed out strong, they really looked to him in those last few games until he got hurt (ankle). But he fits that offense and there are more big plays for him.'' -- AFC college scouting director

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Pick: No. 173
Stats: 61 receptions, 631 yards, 4 TDs, 10.3 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Unranked

What they're saying now: "The guy didn't have a drop all year until the last game or second-to-last game (of the regular season). I thought before the draft he had better technique getting off bump than even some of the bigger guys and think that's why he contributed quickly with all that speed.'' -- NFC pro personnel director

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: No. 42
Stats: 58 receptions, 600 yards, 5 TDs, 10.3 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 3 (top 40 talent)

What they're saying now: "We'll see a lot more from him, a lot, after the makeover with the new staff.'' -- AFC general manager

Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Pick: No. 128
Stats: 35 receptions, 599 yards, 7 TDs, 17.1 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Best of the rest (outside of top 100 players in draft)

What they're saying now: "We expect him to make veteran plays, he's done a great job, he's got a great head on his shoulders, and he's going to continue (to play well) for us.'' -- Bills WR Cole Beasley

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Pick: No. 34
Stats: 40 receptions, 503 yards, 1 TD, 12.6 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 3 (top 40 talent)

What they're saying now: "I am going to go back and train like I have never trained. ... I have learned more (from Philip Rivers) than I ever thought I could learn. He pushes me to be better every day.'' -- Pittman Jr.

Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: No. 12
Stats: 26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TDs, 17.4 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 3 (top 40 talent)

What they're saying now: "He was the guy in this class who sort of had the traditional struggle of a rookie at that position -- getting off bump, what to do when the DB puts his hands on you. He's got to get stronger or people are going to mute his speed too often.'' -- AFC general manager

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: No. 21
Stats: 31 receptions, 396 yards, 1 TD, 12.8 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 4 (top 100 talent)

What they're saying now: "It's been a test, trials and tribulations ... in college you play against defensive backs who've been there, at the most, four years. (Now) you're playing against guys who've been in the league, eight, nine, 10 years ... what I've learned is you have to keep learning your craft and put more in your toolbox, because they've probably seen everything.'' -- Reagor

KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos
Pick: No. 46
Stats: 30 receptions, 381 yards, 3 TDs, 12.7 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 4 (top 100 talent)

What they're saying now: "Injured early, liked what he did late in the season, but he's got to stay on the field to contribute as much as he could, and should.'' -- NFC pro personnel director

Denzel Mims, New York Jets
Pick: No. 59
Stats: 23 receptions, 357 yards, 0 TDs, 15.5 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 3 (top 40 talent)

What they're saying now: "I wouldn't judge anybody in that offense, but that said he's got some work to do, come in ready to go when he gets back on the field.'' --AFC general manager

Quintez Cephus, Detroit Lions
Pick: No. 166
Stats: 20 receptions, 349 yards, 2 TDs, 17.5 yards per catch
Pre-draft tier: Tier 4 (top 100 talent)

What they're saying now: "Think he really understands the position, how to play. His routes give him the step he needs instead of his speed. He gets open against faster guys and there's always a place for that.'' -- AFC general manager

Best of the rest
Of the other four receivers who were ranked in at least Tier 4 (top 100 talent) last March, the Browns' Donovan Peoples-Jones finished with a 21.7 yards per catch average on his 14 receptions; the Rams' Van Jefferson finished the regular season with 19 catches for 220 yards (he had a TD in the Rams' divisional round loss to the Packers); the Ravens' Devin Duvernay had 20 catches and a kickoff return TD; and the Chargers' K.J. Hill played just 146 snaps this season and didn't play more than 50% of the offense's snaps in any game.

Courtney Cronin contributed to this story.

 

[Jplaya2023]

Barnwell predicts Super Bowl LV: The mismatches, flaws, plays and storylines to watch

 

[Jplaya2023]

NBA predictions: MVP, trade deadline moves and Finals matchups

 

[Skooby]

Barnwell predicts Super Bowl LV: The mismatches, flaws, plays and storylines to watch

The best Super Bowl preview you'll read: Barnwell makes his Chiefs-Bucs prediction and picks storylines to watch


After the weirdest season in NFL history, the Super Bowl is as comforting and familiar as any matchup we could have imagined. It's the Buccaneers and the Chiefs, but from the quarterback perspective, it's the defending champ against the most successful player in league history. It shouldn't be a surprise that Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are in Tampa for the 269th and final game of this remarkable campaign.

Most of the pregame hype has focused on the two quarterbacks, and given their track records, you can understand why. When these two teams met in Week 12, Mahomes and Brady combined to throw for 807 yards and six touchdowns. Each team's star wide receiver had a multi-touchdown game, as Tampa Bay's Mike Evans scored twice late after Kansas City's Tyreek Hill racked up an unreal 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the way to a 27-24 Chiefs win. It's tough to imagine this rematch turning into a defensive battle.

At the same time, as I've thought more and more about this game, I've been focused more on the defensive coordinators. Tampa's Todd Bowles and Kansas City's Steve Spagnuolo are two of the most creative, fertile minds in the business, and they've had two weeks to piece together creative game plans. They've both had to shape-shift their respective defenses from week to week this season to deal with different quarterbacks and offensive styles, and they'll have to do it again for Super Bowl LV.

More than anything, I've thought about how Bowles might try to accomplish what has seemingly been impossible. How on earth do you try to stop the Chiefs? I'm not sure there's any way to shut down Mahomes & Co., but I have a few ideas for how Bowles could try. Let's start there and work through all the different angles for a mouthwatering matchup:

Tampa's plan to stop the Chiefs involves ... the Falcons?
In our Super Bowl previews, we have a habit of latching onto something less-heralded teams did during the regular season for a more successful team to copy on the bigger stage. Before Super Bowl LII, I wrote about how the 3-13 Giants used a muddle huddle and tempo to try to keep the Eagles from rotating their deep defensive line. The Patriots adopted heavy doses of tempo and went no-huddle for long stretches of the game against the Eagles, and Brady threw for 505 yards and three touchdowns in the 41-33 loss.

The following year, I mentioned how the 6-10 Lions spread their defensive ends wide and crowded the line of scrimmage with their linebackers to slow down the Rams' vaunted outside zone rush concept. The Patriots adopted what became more widely known as a 6-1 front in Super Bowl LIII, and Rams coach Sean McVay didn't have any Plan B. Los Angeles was held to just 260 yards in a 13-3 loss.


Well, the Patriots aren't around for this Super Bowl, but I wonder whether the Buccaneers will be looking toward a division rival for some inspiration in how to slow down the Chiefs. The 4-12 Falcons were barely watchable for most of the season, but coordinator Raheem Morris was able to coax an oft-frustrating defense to 14th in defensive DVOA by the end of the campaign. Atlanta was the only team to hold Mahomes and the Chiefs under 20 points, and while its offense wasn't able to hold up its end of the bargain in a 17-14 defeat in Week 6, there is one thing the Falcons did that stood out to me as something the Bucs might be able to use on Sunday.

That something is a heavy dose of what's known as sim pressures. (They're also called creepers, but I can't bring myself to say creepers out loud when I talk about football.) Sim pressures are a more moderate version of the zone blitz concept dikk LeBeau brought to notoriety with the Bengals and Steelers in the 1980s and 1990s. Both concepts rely on the same premise, with the defense dropping one or more defenders off the line of scrimmage into coverage while rushing players from the second level toward the quarterback.

You might notice that the word "blitz" is conspicuously absent from the newer concept. A sim pressure is exactly that: It's simulating the benefits of a pressure package without actually sending extra men at the quarterback. Instead of rushing four men across the offensive formation like a typical pass rush, a sim pressure uses overloads and leverage to create mismatches and confusion in the protection scheme, just like a blitz. Unlike a blitz, though, a sim pressure allows the defense to drop seven into coverage and play something safe.

Sim pressures are nothing new to the NFL. The Titans broke Baker Mayfield with sim pressures in Week 1 of the 2019 season, while the Patriots used them to make Sam Darnold see ghosts on Monday Night Football in Week 7 of the same season. The Chiefs had seen sim pressures heading into the Falcons game.

It was clear that the plan for the Falcons in this game was to confuse the Chiefs in pass protection. They crowded the line over and over again with mug looks, occupying both A-gaps (the holes on either side of the center) with linebackers. Sometimes, they sent the house. Other times, they sent more traditional zone blitzes. I counted 10 sim pressures from the Falcons during the game, and many of them were successful in disrupting the Chiefs on offense.

Here's one example. This is a third-and-5 for the Chiefs in the first half. Atlanta is crowding the line of scrimmage with six defenders, including the mug look I mentioned above. At the snap, two of the defenders drop off, including linebacker Deion Jones (45) and 291-pound defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97). Jarrett immediately chips Travis Kelce (87) and actually drops into coverage, as you can see below:





Up front, while the Falcons are rushing only four defenders, they use the leverage of the center to gain an advantage. Austin Reiter (62) turns left at the snap, which cues Foyesade Oluokun (54) to rush through the A-gap. The left guard and center are essentially wasted blockers on the play, as they don't actually block anybody. The Falcons end up with three rushers against two linemen and a running back, an advantage they use to pressure Mahomes. The Chiefs star throws a pivot route underneath to Mecole Hardman (17), but Jarrett and Kendall Sheffield (24) are there to make the tackle short of the sticks.

Later on, a sim pressure almost turned into a turnover. Here, Atlanta is in its nickel package, with its linebackers off the line of scrimmage. After the snap, the Falcons drop three of those six players into coverage and play Cover 2. They rush the other three linemen and send corner Isaiah Oliver (26) on a slot blitz. On paper, the Chiefs should be able to block four with five linemen, but because right guard Andrew Wylie (77) is left without anybody to block on his side, the Falcons end up with three rushers to the left of the center against two linemen.





Oliver has a free rush, Dante Fowler Jr. (56) gets underneath left tackle Eric Fisher (72), and the Falcons get their rushers in Mahomes' face. Meanwhile, defensive lineman Jacob Tuioti-Mariner (91) has dropped off the line and into zone coverage. Mahomes tries to hurry his checkdown to Sammy Watkins (14), but Tuioti-Mariner is directly in his throwing lane and drops what would have been an interception.

I wonder if we will see a heavy dose of sim pressures in passing situations from the Bucs on Sunday. They're not a team that typically uses sim pressures as frequently as the Falcons did against Kansas City, and I don't think I saw the Bucs run one against Kansas City when these two teams played in Week 12.

Lavonte David and Devin White. They've had two weeks for Bowles to install new looks, giving him twice the typical prep time. In a game that projects to be a shootout, the chance of unexpectedly having a defender in one of Mahomes' throwing lanes is probably worth the occasional mismatch with a defensive lineman in coverage. Bowles will have to try something out of the box, because the Bucs didn't have many answers for the Chiefs earlier this season.

 

[Skooby]

Can the Bucs stop the Chiefs in the red zone?
You might have noticed that the Chiefs have been difficult to stop during the postseason. There's a reason why. During the regular season, since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, they have converted 63.3% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. That's good, but it's not otherworldly; they rank eighth in the league over that time frame, and much of that comes because of a second-placed finish in 2018. They were 20th in red zone efficiency in 2019 and 14th this season.

In the postseason, however, opponents basically have been hopeless in the red zone against the Chiefs. In Mahomes' seven starts, they have thrived in the red zone:



Mahomes' Red Zone Numbers
Year Opp RZ
TDs RZ
Trips Success%
2018 IND 3 4 75.0%
2018 NE 3 3 100.0%
2019 HOU 7 8 87.5%
2019 TEN 2 2 100.0%
2019 SF 3 4 75.0%
2020 CLE 2 5 40.0%
2020 BUF 5 5 100.0%
Totals 25 31 80.6%


I've stripped out a possession against the Titans in which the Chiefs kneeled on the ball with the game won, but you can see the difference. In Mahomes' only playoff loss, the Patriots beat the Kansas City in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, but Brady & Co. needed to score 37 points (and win the overtime coin toss without ever handing back the ball) to do it. The only team to slow down the Chiefs in the red zone was the Browns in the divisional round, which is one of the reasons Kansas City scored only 22 points in that game.

Chad Henne came on the field after Mahomes was injured on the final red zone possession of the game, but the Browns still held the Chiefs to a 50% conversion rate on Mahomes' four trips to the red zone. If you're looking for clues from how Cleveland stopped them, well, I'm afraid you'll be disappointed. One of the stops came because time ran out, as they hit a 16-yard pass to Tyreek Hill to set up a field goal with five seconds to go in the quarter. The other saw Mahomes fail to hook up with Le'Veon Bell on a wheel route when the former Steelers running back had a step on his defender for what would have been a score.

Should the Buccaneers feel hopeless about their chances of stopping the playoff Chiefs in the red zone? No. For one, they might have been this great in the red zone in January by sheer chance. If their "true" red zone conversion rate is 63.3%, the chances that an offense would score 25 touchdowns in 31 tries by sheer chance is 3%. I don't believe that Kansas City is saving many of its scoring concepts inside the red zone for the playoffs, outside of maybe getting more aggressive with Mahomes on designed runs.

More conspicuously, one of the few teams that has been able to stop the Chiefs in the red zone during the regular season was ... the Buccaneers, who forced Reid's team to go 0-for-3 in the red zone earlier this season. If you're wondering how Hill can go for 269 yards and three touchdowns and the Chiefs ended up winning by only three points, it's because they didn't score touchdowns inside the red zone.

What was Tampa's secret? Well, at first, it got lucky. After a Watkins catch on the first red zone possession got the Chiefs to the 1-yard line, Reid dialed up a Philly Special variant where Mahomes took the snap and then ran into the end zone. Kelce ended up with the ball on a reverse and had his choice of Mahomes wide open in the end zone or a path toward running the ball in; he got caught between two minds and ended up throwing the ball at the lone defender on that side of the field for an incompletion.


After that, the Chiefs ran five red zone plays across three possessions and the Bucs got pressure on every one. Jason Pierre-Paul attacked Mahomes on a third-and-goal naked bootleg and forced a throwaway and a field goal. On the next red zone trip, Mahomes was strip-sacked by Shaquil Barrett on first down, with the Bucs recovering the ball. On the third and final drive, the Bucs pressured Mahomes three straight times to force throwaways. Each time, they used twists up front to create awkward angles for the Chiefs' blockers, who weren't able to hold up.

Vita Vea and has nearly $37 million of Tampa's cap invested across its other three starters up front. Ndamukong Suh joins Vea in the middle, but on the edges, the Bucs have to feel like they have a huge advantage. Their duo of Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul has been awesome this postseason, ranking third and fifth in pass rush win rate.

On the other side, the Chiefs would typically feel like they could hold their own at tackle, given the presence of former first overall pick Eric Fisher and 2018 All-Pro Mitchell Schwartz. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they'll be on the sideline. Schwartz has missed most of the season with a back injury and isn't expected to play on Sunday, while Fisher tore his Achilles in the AFC Championship Game.

Instead, the Chiefs will be protecting Mahomes with major question marks. On the left side, they are expected to start Mike Remmers, who had been filling in for Schwartz at right tackle before Fisher's injury. Remmers has played for seven teams in eight seasons, and while he once started for the Panthers in Super Bowl 50, it wasn't a pleasant experience, as Remmers was ripped apart by Broncos star Von Miller, who was named the game's MVP.

On the right side, the Chiefs are expected to move guard Andrew Wylie to tackle. The former undrafted free agent played tackle at times at Eastern Michigan, but he primarily has been a guard at the pro level. Stefen Wisniewski, who started for Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV last season, will step in at guard; he signed with the Steelers last offseason, started in Week 1, and then went down with a pectoral injury. Wisniewski missed most of the year before rejoining the Chiefs, where he has played 162 offensive snaps over six games.


Last year, I highlighted Wisniewski as a possible weak point against a dominant 49ers offensive line. He wasn't the problem, though; Fisher struggled mightily against Nick Bosa, who might have been named MVP if the 49ers had held onto their lead. Of course, after slowing the Chiefs for most of the first three quarters, Bosa and the rest of the pass rush gassed out in the fourth. Once the pass rush dissipated, Mahomes and the rest of the offense took over.

At times, Mahomes can be the offensive line's best friend and worst enemy. His ability to make unimpeded rushers miss, extend plays and move around the backfield, has covered up for mistakes or missed blocks up front. His habit of drifting well past traditional drop points to buy time for his receivers to get open helped turn around the Super Bowl, when he dropped 13 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15 before finding an open Hill for 44 yards.

That habit also can make it difficult for his tackles to set the appropriate depth for their pass sets, given that edge rushers can just run right by them to get to Mahomes if they set for a traditional five- or seven-step drop. The Chiefs are rightfully going to indulge his improvisational instincts given how successful they've been, but one of the trade-offs is that it's easier for opposing edge rushers to tee off on the star quarterback.

Mahomes' mobility will matter more against the Buccaneers than it did against the Bills, who don't have the same caliber of edge rushers. The reigning Super Bowl MVP was clearly limited against the Browns, both through sailing his passes and limping through plays as a runner. A week of rest and a custom orthotic helped him get back to something resembling normal against the Bills. He should be closer to 100 percent as the Super Bowl starts, but any aggravation of the injury would make things more difficult given the likely mismatches coming up front.

Mecole Hardman to outflank them on jet sweeps and tap passes. The Chiefs faced a dominant edge rusher in the divisional round in Myles Garrett and used a tap pass to run past him; Garrett eventually tackled Hardman, but it came 42 yards downfield. Reid will take that one every time. Watching those guys move across the formation slows down the first steps of those edge rushers and chasing Hill and Hardman tires them out.


Should Tampa defenders clutch and grab?
There is one other strategy the Bucs should consider. I don't want to endorse cheating or suggest that they need to cheat to win a big game, but successful NFL teams aren't naive. When there's an advantage to be had, smart teams lean into those opportunities. In the 2020 season, it's clear there has been a major opportunity. As my colleague Kevin Seifert put it before the postseason began, "Hold. Hold everyone. It's not cheating if they're letting you do it."

Seifert was referring to offensive holding, but if you watched the NFC Championship Game, you recognized that the lax attitude extended to other penalties. The referees begrudgingly called for offsides and 12 men on the field, but their flags stayed put when it came to judgment calls. The crew in that game seemingly wasn't willing to call defensive holding, illegal contact or pass interference, which led to some aggressive coverage downfield by Bowles' defensive backs. The Packers responded in kind, but Green Bay corner Kevin King was whistled for pass interference on a critical third down with 1:46 to go, helping seal the win for the Buccaneers.

The AFC Championship Game was called more like a typical game, and Super Bowl official Carl Cheffers called penalties at a slightly higher rate than league average this season, but there's still an opportunity here. While illegal contact and defensive pass interference calls were slightly up in 2020, defensive holding calls were way down. On a roughly similar number of dropbacks, officials went from calling 335 holding penalties in 2019 to just 244 this season.

As I wrote about last year, we generally see referees call penalties less frequently in the Super Bowl than we do during the rest of the season, including what is now a 16-season run without a single illegal contact penalty. It's incumbent on the Buccaneers to challenge the referees early in this game, even if that means running the risk of an early holding or pass interference call. If it's clear that the officials are being told to let the game play out and don't intend to call those sorts of defensive penalties, the Bucs need to lean in and get aggressive with Kansas City's receivers. They should also try to get away with holding up front to help facilitate those twists and defensive line games. Like Seifert said, in between the lines, it's not cheating if they let you do it.

Can they stop the Chiefs' mesh?
One other thing to watch for is my favorite pass concept. I've written about mesh in the past, the Air Raid pass concept in which two receivers cross over the middle of the field. Typically, the concept also includes a wheel route up the sideline, a "sit" or "settle" route where a receiver gets in behind those two crossing wideouts, and some sort of deep shot on a post or go. Just about every team in the league runs mesh, including the Bucs and Chiefs.

In the NFC Championship Game, though, the Packers took it to an almost absurd extent. They hit Allen Lazard on the sit route for a big gain during their two-minute drill when the Bucs left him wide open. Matt LaFleur noticed. He went back to it again for the touchdown pass to Robert Tonyan, who was also on the sit route. On the next possession, facing third-and-2, LaFleur called mesh again, with Rodgers hitting Jamaal Williams on the wheel route for a big gain. The Packers scored another touchdown, but on the next third down the Packers faced, LaFleur ... called mesh yet again. This time, even though Lazard got open as one of the crossers, the pass pressure got home and sacked Rodgers.


Bowles wasn't seeing anything new, although LaFleur changed the formations and the receivers to mix up what was coming. I'm pretty confident Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy noticed. Don't be surprised if the Chiefs challenge the Buccaneers with mesh in a key moment, especially if Tampa is playing a lot of two-high looks on defense.

Why will the Bucs be in two-high defensive shells? Well, you have to look back to what happened last time these two teams played ...

 

[Skooby]

How to cover Hill and Kelce
This section heading might have been a little optimistic. There is no great way to cover Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but we've seen defenses find the wrong ways to do it, including these very Buccaneers earlier this season. The Bucs likely can't afford to make the same mistakes Sunday.

The guy who took most of the blame for Hill's huge performance was cornerback Carlton Davis, who otherwise had an excellent season. The initial idea was that Tampa Bay had foolishly left Davis in man coverage against the star receiver and paid the price, but it's not quite that simple. Davis wasn't always in true man-to-man coverage against Hill, but some of the alignments the Chiefs used and the coverages the Bucs went with to try to stop them left Davis isolated against Hill with disastrous results.

Hill scored three touchdowns. On the first, the Buccaneers are actually in Cover 3, which means Davis is responsible for one-third of the field deep. The Chiefs lined up Hill from a reduced split, which made it harder for Davis to use the sideline as help against Hill running any sort of vertical route. Davis needs to get as deep as Hill gets, but that's just not possible given that Hill is running forward with a head start while Davis is backpedaling. The result was a 75-yard touchdown.

On the second score, Davis is at the line in man coverage against Hill in the 3x1 alignment the Chiefs love to use, with Hill lined up as the slot receiver and Kelce split out on the other side of the formation. Reid calls for vertical routes, and while the Bucs show a look with two deep safeties before the snap, they spin safety Antoine Winfield Jr. down to the line of scrimmage and switch to a single-high look after the snap. Hill alters his vertical route to run across the numbers and head toward the corner, taking him away from the safety help in the middle of the field. Mahomes looks off deep safety Mike Edwards and Hill runs away from Davis; the corner falls as Hill makes the catch, and Edwards has little hope of tackling Hill in the open field.



The third score, again, is with a single-high safety in the middle of the field. Winfield is deep this time, and Davis is in man coverage at the line again. With the Chiefs on the edge of the red zone, there just isn't enough time for Winfield to make it across the field and defend against anything vertical to Hill. Most 5-foot-10 receivers don't see many fades, but Hill has Davis totally turned around. The corner doesn't realize the ball is coming until it's too late.

Obviously, the Bucs can't line up in man coverage and have Davis follow Hill all around the field. I'm not sure there's a corner in the league capable of doing that given Hill's speed and Reid's creativity. The Bills tried to do that a little bit with Tre'Davious White in the AFC title game, and despite the fact that White has been one of the best cornerbacks in football for several years now, Hill lit him up. Davis might be better at it if the Buccaneers give him a second shot, but that's a recipe for a long touchdown from Hill.

More realistically, the Bucs can't play many single-high safety looks in this game. Every team is going to play single-high at some point during the game, but every snap in which the Bucs don't have two deep safeties is going to be a nail-biter for Bowles. This is going to be even more of a problem if the Buccaneers are without either one or both of their starting safeties, given that Winfield missed the Packers game with an ankle issue and Jordan Whitehead left midway through with a shoulder injury.

Playing with two high safeties, either in Cover 2 or quarters, means the Bucs will have to make some sacrifices. They'll be susceptible to the run, as teams like the Texans and Bills were this season when they chose to sacrifice and give up rushing opportunities. The Chiefs will be able to try to work them with RPOs and create opportunities over the middle of the field against David and White, the latter of whom was a frequent target for Mahomes the last time around. There's still no answer for what to do with Kelce, although I don't think there's really anybody in the league who has a good answer for him. By playing two-deep, though, the Bucs limit their chances of getting beat for a long touchdown, and those long scores cost them the game last time out.


XLII), the then-Giants coordinator adopted a similar tactic. As the Blitzology account noted on Twitter, the game plan for Spagnuolo with the Giants in the 2007 season was to take away the deep shots, disguise his coverages and buy time for his front four to get home without allowing anything downfield.

That was a different offense and a different Brady. Thirteen years later, I wonder whether the game plan for Spagnuolo might be diametrically opposed to the one he used to upset the 18-0 Patriots. Spagnuolo will still try to disguise his coverages and get pressure, of course, but is he willing to lean into the strength of the Arians offense and dare Brady to throw deep?


Of course, not all deep passes are created equal. Leaving Brady open receivers or clear throwing lanes across the middle of the field isn't a good idea. In the first game, though, Spagnuolo had enough confidence in his cornerbacks to trust that they would be able to run with Tampa Bay's excellent receiving corps downfield. And given what we've seen from Brady during the postseason, I'm not sure that should change in the rematch.

A tale of two Brady seasons
The goal in dealing with Brady now is the same as it was 13 years ago: get home. He was 14-2 in the postseason before that loss to the Giants, which brought home a formula teams have gone back to with some success against the future Hall of Famer in the postseason. Brady hasn't been beat up in each of his five subsequent playoff losses, but the opposing pass rush has often played a defining role.

After Brady lost his perfect season to the Giants, the Ravens hit him early and often in their upset victory two years later. The Jets sacked him five times to help get Mark Sanchez a playoff win over the Patriots the next year. The Giants knocked him down eight times in their Super Bowl rematch in the 2011 season. The Seahawks (2014) and Falcons (2016) hit Brady early in their Super Bowls, only for him to spur comebacks in the fourth quarter after the Seahawks lost Cliff Avril and the Falcons gassed out against a record snap count. The Broncos (2015) knocked him down an unfathomable 17 times and made it to the Super Bowl with a compromised Peyton Manning averaging 5.5 yards per attempt.


This season has been no exception. During the regular season, when Brady wasn't pressured, he posted the league's fifth-best QBR (84.3). When he was pressured, though, his QBR fell all the way to 6.4, which ranked 30th among 33 qualifying passers. He was tied with San Francisco's Nick Mullens, and with no disrespect to the Mullens family, those two should not be tied at anything related to quarterback play. No quarterback had a larger drop-off by QBR when he was pressured than Brady.

Look game by game through Brady's season and the effect is even clearer. The Bucs finished 11-5, and pass pressure was a strong indicator of what was going to happen. Five of his six most-pressured games -- including the top four -- were losses. Naturally, the game against the Chiefs was in that group; while Brady was pressured most frequently during his pair of regular-season losses to the Saints, Spagnuolo's defense was able to get to Brady 23.8% of the time, the highest rate for any non-Saints matchup during the regular season.

The good news for the Buccaneers, though, is that Brady has been improving against pressure as the season has gone along. During the first half of the season, he posted a 4.7 QBR when he was bothered by opposing pass-rushers. Across the second half, the 43-year-old nearly doubled that mark and got all the way to 9.3; that's not good, but it's still an improvement.

During the postseason, though, he has posted a 41.8 QBR under pressure, which ranks ninth among the 14 quarterbacks who have started this January. It's a small sample, and his numbers aren't going to blow anyone away -- Brady is 8-of-22 for 178 yards with an interception and five sacks -- but he hasn't been a total liability when teams are able to get home with their pass rush, and that's a big difference-maker.


The problem for opposing defenses is that it's often difficult to actually pressure Brady, who reads coverages and figures out where he wants to go with the football faster than anybody else in the league. Despite moving to a new offense and throwing downfield more frequently than he has in a decade, he was pressured only 17.1% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league. That number has risen to 23.7% during the postseason, but he's not making many mental mistakes or running himself into sacks.

Where the Chiefs have mismatches
The Bucs have three dominant offensive linemen in left guard Ali Marpet, center Ryan Jensen and rookie right tackle Tristan Wirfs, the last of whom was my first-team All-Pro pick this season. The remaining two linemen are set to match up with Kansas City's two highly paid pass-rushers, and the Chiefs have to feel as if those are opportunities to exploit:

Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark vs. Bucs left tackle Donovan Smith

Clark will typically play right defensive end on run downs and rotate between the left and right side in passing situations. My suspicion is that the Chiefs will lean more toward lining him up on the right side when they plan to rush four, giving him the opportunity to go up against Smith.

While the Penn State product is in the middle of a three-year, $41.3 million deal, Smith is clearly the tackle pass rushes want to attack. He posted an 83.5% pass block win rate (PBWR) during the regular season, which ranked 51st out of 62 qualifying tackles. ESPN's automated analysis attributed nine sacks and two interceptions to Smith, who also committed 11 penalties, tying him for the second most in the league. The penalties won't matter as much if the refs swallow their whistles, but Smith's 80.6% PBWR in the postseason ranks 26th out of the 28 tackles.

Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones vs. Bucs right guard Aaron Stinnie

The Bucs must have the smallest-school guard pairing in recent memory. On the left side, they have Marpet, who is the first player since 1937 to make the NFL out of Hobart. On the other side of Jensen, they'll line up a Stinnie, a product of James Madison. An undrafted free agent who joined the Bucs in 2019, Stinnie had played just 46 offensive snaps as a pro before starter Alex Cappa broke his ankle against Washington. The 6-foot-5 lineman was summoned and took over as the starter at right guard in Tampa's wins over the Saints and Packers.


Stinnie has performed admirably for a player with his level of experience, especially given that he was going up against star Packers tackle Kenny Clark at times in the NFC title game. It's also fair to say the Chiefs will try to target him. Stinnie ranks last among 24 guards this postseason with an 80.0% PBWR. He's also 21st out of those 24 guards in run block win rate (RBWR).

He'll see plenty of Jones, who moves around the formation but typically lines up on the interior on passing downs. I thought Jones would have been a viable MVP pick in the Super Bowl a year ago, given that he helped create an interception with a first-half pressure of Jimmy Garoppolo and knocked down a pair of passes in the fourth quarter. Jones is unblockable at times, and getting a matchup like Stinnie will give him even more opportunities to make a difference as an interior disrupter.


The Bucs will need to help Smith and Stinnie. They might use their tight ends to chip Clark when he's one-on-one against Smith. Jensen will need to help Stinnie. The Chiefs will challenge them by using twists and TE games (stunts) to challenge Stinnie's ability to communicate and work alongside his teammates. Tampa has the better offensive line of these two teams, but if Smith or Stinnie struggles, Brady is going to be more susceptible to the effects. Mahomes, unsurprisingly, has the league's best QBR when pressured.