you don't have to play well to win or get to the final
argentina 1990 - much like today's argentina team
germany 1990
italy 2006
greece 2004
portugal 2018
england 2020
germany 2014
denmark 1992
and many winners warm up as the comp goes along.
italy - surprise rossi
argentina - 1986
france 2006
it is rarely predictable with exceptions like spain 2008 - 2012, france/brazil 1998, early brazil, brazil 2002
to compound this you have the draw itself, home/climate/continental advantage and games are fine margins anyway.
for example "your" "weak" argentina has a relatively easier path to the semis now.
or england had the luck of the draw in 2020 with italy the only really tough opponent.
Group D:
England 1-0 Croatia (13 June,
London)
Group D:
England 0-0 Scotland (18 June,
London)
Group D:
Czech Republic 0-1 England (22 June,
London)
Round of 16:
England 2-0 Germany (29 June,
London)
Quarter-finals:
Ukraine 0-4 England (3 July,
Rome)
England 2-1 Denmark (aet)
Italy vs England
it's typical for these comps to develop as they go along, for teams to start badly and play into form and for surprise players to become tournament stars by unexpectedly dragging their team deep into the competition.