Gamers are speaking with their wallets following E3 2013, a show that was dominated by Sony PlayStation 4 in the next gen battle. Amazon has already sold out of the $400 PlayStation 4 launch edition of the next gen console, which will be available on day one of Sony’s launch. Sony is still selling PS4 as a $400 Standard Edition, but is not guaranteeing when gamers will receive that version this fall.
PS4 is also being bundled as a $500 bundle with two different versions, one including Electronic Arts’ Battlefield 4 and PS Plus and one including Guerilla Games’ Killzone Shadow Fall and PS Plus. There are also two other bundles retailing for $460, one including Sony’s Knack and the other including Ubisoft’s Watch Dog.
The Xbox One Day One Edition is still available for $500. Amazon is not currently selling any Xbox One bundles. Microsoft MSFT -0.91%’s Forza Motorsport 5 is the only Xbox One game in the Top 20 bestselling games list on the site. Sony has three PS4 games (Watch Dogs, Battlefield 4 and Killzone Shadow Fall) in the Top 20. Gamers are also buying the Dualshock 4 PS4 controller and the PlayStation 4 Camera. Three of the PS4 bundles (all but the Knack bundle) are in the Top 20 in Amazon sales.
GameStop President Tony Bartel Believes Used Games Playback Will Play Key Role In Next Gen Console War
John Gaudiosi
Contributor
Despite A Strong E3 For PlayStation 4, Analysts Expect Microsoft And Sony To Have A Close Race
John Gaudiosi
Contributor
Warren Spector Said If Publishers Didn't Overcharge For Games People Wouldn't Have To Buy Them Used
John Gaudiosi
Contributor
While the PS4 Standard Edition is listed number one and Xbox One Day One Edition is listed number two on Amazon, sources have told me that PS4 is outselling Xbox One by two to one. I’ve emailed Amazon to confirm these numbers, but have not heard back. Baird video game analyst Colin Sebastian confirmed that PS4 is outselling Xbox One on both Amazon and GameStop GME +3.94%, but has not revealed any specific numbers.
Amazon is currently running a Facebook FB -0.34% poll asking consumers which console they’ll purchase, PS4 or Xbox One. With only six hours left in the poll, 95% of the over 40,000 gamers who replied said they’d be purchasing a PS4.
Michael Pachter, video game analyst for Wedbush Securities, expects Sony to sell 12 to 15 million PS4s in its first year. He expects an unsubsidized Xbox One will sell 9 to 10 million in its first year.
“I still expect a subsidy for the Xbox One, and each $100 in lower price probably represents 4 to 5 million units annually,” said Pachter. “At E3, Sony highlighted its used game and DRM policies, and that will make a difference to the hardcore. With that said, there are a lot if Microsoft fan boys out there, so it may not mean a share shift of more than 1 to 2 million consoles. I don’t think ‘new’ customers will understand or care that much.”
But those numbers are for the first entire year at retail shelves. Pachter believes Sony and Microsoft will only have about 3 million consoles available worldwide for launch. PJ McNealy, analyst for Digital World Research, said that historically no console has sold more than 1 to 2 million units in North America in a launch window.
Even when consoles are popular, like Nintendo Wii was at launch, supply is shared across the world and the demand doesn’t catch up until the following year. Early numbers are showing a demand for PS4 and Xbox One, but the strong showing by Nintendo Wii U at E3 hasn’t bumped its next gen console into the Top 20 on Amazon and none of the new Wii U first party exclusives have made the list.
I was able to check out both PS4 and Xbox One games with hands-on demos at E3 this past week. Infamous Second Son stood out in the Sony first party camp, along with Driveclub, Killzone Shadow Fall and Knack. Microsoft had a solid racer with Forza Motorsport 5 and Capcom’s Dead Rising 3 offered an open world zombie experience. Respawn’s Titanfall (an Xbox One, Xbox 360 and PC exclusive) stood out in the crowded shooter genre with its micture of giant Titans and on-foot pilots gameplay.
In talking to a developer who wished to remain anonymous, gamers will see a difference on Day One when they compare third party PS4 games to Xbox One head-to-head. The developer told me the PS4 is 40 percent more powerful than Xbox One and games like Call of Duty Ghosts will be noticeably different out of the gate.
In the past, Xbox 360 games looked better out of the gate and over time PS3 games progressively improved to the point where games like The Last of Us and Beyond: Two Souls stand out even against some next gen titles. But if this differentiator holds true, not only will Xbox One games have DRM issues and no rental options and limited used game opportunities, the games won’t look as good as PS4 titles. That sounds like a perfect storm of negativity for the hardcore gamers.
This processing power issue also could be a potential reason behind the latest controversy that has emerged for Microsoft at E3, in which photos were taken of some Xbox One games running on Windows 7 PCs with NVIDIA graphics cards. Sony PS4 developers took to Twitter saying PS4 demos were running on PS4 dev kits. I know playing PS4 games behind closed doors that the PS4 was clearly visible as I played.
Microsoft certainly has a lot of work to do between now and its November launch to win over gamers. It’s the hardcore that are voting now early on sites like Amazon and GameStop. There’s also a much larger audience to connect with. But right now the number of negative stories surrounding Xbox One far outweigh anything positive.
