Trump is now MORE POPULAR than he was 4 Years Ago. Analysts give him a 60% Chance of Re-Election

[Nkrumah Was Right]

Voting Republican does not necessarily mean voting for Trump and they know that. They can go down ballot and just not vote. I agree a non-vote for Biden is a problem, but he has more margin for error than Trump.

A “centrist” who would vote for Trump was never a centrist imo. He’s not converting voters anymore and he doesn’t have the energy (or health) to campaign like he did in 2016. It’s not a landslide victory in either direction but Trump is not a favorite like the polls want you to believe.

You gotta tell cacs that


So a candidate who’s leading in every swing state he needs to win to get more than 270 electoral college votes is not a favorite? Interesting.

 

[Gloxina]

aw man give it a break its the same stacking the courts bullshyt with y'all fukks.... no other group cares about that!!! wtf are we getting for our votes specific to our group... that's the only thing that should fukking matter... you want us to go out here and save democracy... another 4 years voting for nothing meanwhile every other group gets something out the bytch except us... knock it off already we've heard it all before...

Who cares what the OTHER GROUPS care about?!
They aren’t US and don’t have our history in this country. When shyt hits the fan WE are the ones who are always targeted or affected the most.

Cannot believe you said that

 

[Squirrel from Meteor Man]

You gotta tell cacs that


So a candidate who’s leading in every swing state he needs to win to get more than 270 electoral college votes is not a favorite? Interesting.

That’s clearly satirical. 80 year old white woman with an American flag around her neck is about as centrist as Putin

Leading in those states according to whom? This sounds like the Red Wave all over again. At the end of the day, the energy that was surrounding Trump in 2016 and 2020 is not there, and he isn’t in any type of shape to beat the drum and rally the troops. He doesn’t even have the party behind him like it was before.

Will he compete? Yes. Do the democrats have to work their ass off? Yes. Is Trump in the driver’s seat? No.

If you think Biden doesn't have a chance to win then you’re ignoring what’s been happening in elections since 2022.

 

[IIVI]

Maybe someone needs to make a post (preferably from a non-controversial poster) but people really need to be talking about Project 2025 and the 180 Day Playbook. If you're not a white conservative man and you're in this country, you're basically screwed.

What these loons intend to do the second Trump is elected into office (180 Day Playbook).
It's literally a step-by-step, detailed PLAN right out in the open of how they're going to accomplish the following:

• Place the entire Executive Branch of the U.S. federal government under direct presidential control, eliminating the independence of the Department of Justice, Federal Communications Commission, Federal Trade Commission and other agencies.
• Direct the Justice Department to pursue people whom Trump considers disloyal or political adversaries.
• Remove Civil Service protections so as to make government workers easy to fire, and replace as many government workers as possible with Trump loyalists.
• Quell mass protests by deploying the military for domestic law enforcement under the Insurrection Act.
• Destroy government attempts to rein in climate change by repealing the Inflation Reduction Act (which funds clean technology), closing the Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy, eliminating climate change from the National Security Council agenda, and encouraging allied nations to use fossil fuels.
• Rescind all government regulations prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, transgender status, sex characteristics, etc., and abolish diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.

Again, it's literally a PLAN with STEPS once Trump gets elected: People are signing up online and they're getting assigning roles to play/execute. They've built the grenade and waiting to pull the pin (Trump winning the election).

Wikipedia:

Project 2025 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Quick summary:


Most complete breakdown:

 

[Nkrumah Was Right]

That’s clearly satirical. 80 year old white woman with an American flag around her neck is about as centrist as Putin

Leading in those states according to whom? This sounds like the Red Wave all over again. At the end of the day, the energy that was surrounding Trump in 2016 and 2020 is not there, and he isn’t in any type of shape to beat the drum and rally the troops. He doesn’t even have the party behind him like it was before.

Will he compete? Yes. Do the democrats have to work their ass off? Yes. Is Trump in the driver’s seat? No.

If you think Biden doesn't have a chance to win then you’re ignoring what’s been happening in elections since 2022.

I never said Biden never had a chance. That’s your anxious projection.

So, the polls (incl. Democrat Adam Silver’s polls) are all wrong. Trump, despite leading in all the swing states he needs to win, is not the favorite. Joe Biden, despite trailing in all the swing states he needed to win in 2020, except Pennsylvania, is the favorite.

Very interesting.

 

[Shadow King]

Those Haley supporters were potential Trump voters who broke away from the man because of his obvious corruption, his anti-democracy ideals and fascist leanings, his crude arrogance and incompetence. These are the Romney Republicans who found out Donald Trump sexually assaulted someone and made a conscious choice that they're tapping out and supporting competent, noble leadership over party loyalty.

Biden wasn't suppose to have these voters, but it looks like he may pick up a great deal of them state to state. Regardless of whether we talking about popular vote or electoral college, this doesn't look good for Trumps prospect.

Trump has literally no appeal outside his rabid base and smart-dumb barbershop babbling c00ns who dont even vote anyway. He has lost ALL appeal with middle ground voters and Democrats. Biden on the other hand is building a tremendous coalition of voters which now includes the Nikki Haley Republicans, as well as independents. If the economy was worse tpdat than it was in 2020 id say Trump stands a good chance, but that is not the case and it is extremely unlikely Americans will vote against a scandal-free President who is overseeing economic growth. Forget these early, premature polls. It's over for Dump starting today. He might as well pick out his jumpsuit now and prepare for a very humble rest of his living.

I hope this ends up the case, but with 2016 quickly turning from a joke into a nightmare I don't put anything past the people of this country. What you're describing sounds like a group that may be big in raw number but small in the grand scheme and not enough to make this the guaranteed Biden victory you're projecting.

Not sure about this one. You're wildly overestimating Haley voters and Republicans in general. Most will vote Trump regardless.

The last thing I want is another Trump term, but you would be insane to look at Biden's approval rating and think he has it in the bag. I'm not predicting a Trump win, it could go either way and it's too early to predict anything, I'm just pointing out that it's arrogant to think a POTUS with a 37% approval rating is going to win easily. From a sheer historical perspective presidents under 40% are in trouble.

If anything Dems need to be campaigning like it's 2020 again and they're the underdogs.

Basically this.

 

[Kyle C. Barker]

I never said Biden never had a chance. That’s your anxious projection.

So, the polls (incl. Democrat Adam Silver’s polls) are all wrong. Trump, despite leading in all the swing states he needs to win, is not the favorite. Joe Biden, despite trailing in all the swing states he needed to win in 2020, except Pennsylvania, is the favorite.

Very interesting.

Polling hasn't been accurate since 2016 really.


Absolutely no poll predicted Biden taking Georgia in 2020 and in 2022 the polls predicted that the Repubs would take the Senate in a red wave. Those are just the examples I can think of off the top of my head.

 

[Nkrumah Was Right]

Polling hasn't been accurate since 2016 really.


Absolutely no poll predicted Biden taking Georgia in 2020 and in 2022 the polls predicted that the Repubs would take the Senate in a red wave. Those are just the examples I can think of off the top of my head.

National polling and state level polling was fairly accurate in 2016.

Unfortunately, Democrats extrapolated national polling data while forgetting that you the Presidency through states. Trump was ahead in Pennsylvania and midwestern states but Clinton was ahead nationally. That bore out. She won the most votes but Trump won the swing states.

 

[RiffRaff]

It’d be dumb to count out Trump, but I feel like this needs to be stated every election cycle now. Polls naturally have a voluntary response bias. This has become more glaring in recent years. They were wrong about Hillary, then they were wrong about Trump, let’s see what happens this time around…

I think a better indicator at this point is paying attention to local elections in battleground states and overwhelmingly women have been showing out because of the abortion topic. I will never underestimate white people but I can’t see the amount Trump needs to close the gap from 2020 AND accounting for newly invigorated women voters being an easy task

 

[RiffRaff]

Double

 

[bnew]

 

[acri1]

It’d be dumb to count out Trump, but I feel like this needs to be stated every election cycle now. Polls naturally have a voluntary response bias. This has become more glaring in recent years. They were wrong about Hillary, then they were wrong about Trump, let’s see what happens this time around…

I think a better indicator at this point is paying attention to local elections in battleground states and overwhelmingly women have been showing out because of the abortion topic. I will never underestimate white people but I can’t see the amount Trump needs to close the gap from 2020 AND accounting for newly invigorated women voters being an easy task

Maybe. It really depends on Democratic turnout.

Trump doesn't necessarily have to close the gap from 2020, he can win with the same number of votes he got last time if Biden just gets fewer votes. If everybody who voted for Biden in 2020 does again, he'll win. But that's pretty questionable. He better do something about Israel ASAP and then talk about abortion as much as he can.

 

[Squirrel from Meteor Man]

Trump support went from “we’re an army about to take over this country! “ to “w-w-well, b-b but we just need to win the swing states! ”

That should tell you all you need to know about his campaign. Only people pining for a Trump presidency are racists, poor whites, and confused Hispanics. And often 2 of those 3 overlap.

Polls only mean something when they show Trump winning we’ve seen this act before. Then when/if he loses it’ll be “Stop the Steal” all over again.

 

[Absolut]

Trump may win yet, but the odds are heavily weighted against him. It isn't about estimating or underestimating. He's just, quite frankly, very unpopular outside of his vocal fandom, and has many many obstacles to overcome.

Maybe take a gander at who’s favored in the election betting markets

 

[jackswstd]

If Trump wins again America deserves whatever comes with it. I’m not losing sleep over it. All empires fall and perhaps we’re due.