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MalikX

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Explain where the risk is. Notional value of derivatives is not a measure of risk.

Deutsche Bank is supposedly holding alot of off balance sheet debt, most of it tied in derivatives. They cooked the books to hide Paschi's $400 million dollar loss. They lost 2 billion euros this year. Lost 6 billion euros last year. They cut thousands in staff. They fired staff today. Facing criminal trials. There's fear that there's more they're hiding and if it goes left, it's over breh. They're one of the three largest European banks. Germany's largest bank.

Forbes Welcome

How Deutsche Bank Made a $462 Million Loss Disappear

Deutsche Bank shares slide 6% after posting worse-than-expected $2 billion loss in fourth quarter







 
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Deutsche Bank is supposedly holding alot of off balance sheet debt, most of it tied in derivatives. They cooked the books to hide Paschi's $400 million dollar loss. They lost 2 billion euros this year. Lost 6 billion euros last year. They cut thousands in staff. They fired staff today. Facing criminal trials. There's fear that there's more they're hiding and if it goes left, it's over breh. They're one of the three largest European banks. Germany's largest bank.

Forbes Welcome

How Deutsche Bank Made a $462 Million Loss Disappear

Deutsche Bank shares slide 6% after posting worse-than-expected $2 billion loss in fourth quarter








Your thesis rests on Deutsche going down and the German government not backstopping (ridiculous position) creating losses down the counterparty chain?

Short banks stocks and put your money where your mouth is. If you think the "derivative bubble" is going to collapse simply because Deutsche is a shyt bank and keeps getting hit with fines (which it has capital reserves against and which is driving their recent losses), you should hit the drawing board again.

Where is the market risk? In 07, you could've answered that with MBS/CDO/etc.. What is it now?
 

MalikX

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Your thesis rests on Deutsche going down and the German government not backstopping (ridiculous position) creating losses down the counterparty chain?

Short banks stocks and put your money where your mouth is. If you think the "derivative bubble" is going to collapse simply because Deutsche is a shyt bank and keeps getting hit with fines (which it has capital reserves against and which is driving their recent losses), you should hit the drawing board again.

Where is the market risk? In 07, you could've answered that with MBS/CDO/etc.. What is it now?

There's no way in hell you watched any of those videos or read any of those articles in a matter of 5 minutes. So, I'mma take your whole comment with a grain of salt. Considering the Bloomberg article is at least a 20 minute read itself. As far as ridiculous positions go, Lehman Brothers thought the same thing. Where are they now? I'mma listen to the insight of guys who started hedge funds and are worth 9 figures over contrarians on The Coli.

As far as your other comment, I don't know enough about investing to short (which is dangerous if you don't). I will buy tons when the economy goes to shyt though.
 
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