Venezuela's Inflation Rate Is 200%

88m3

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Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Venezuela's Inflation Rate Is 200% and Credit Card Companies Are Cashing In

byAnatoly Kurmanaev
7:00 PM EDT
May 17, 2015

Venezuela’s economic collapse is driving factories out of business, leaving store shelves barren and wiping out workers’ purchasing power.

MasterCard Inc. is doing just fine.

Two powerful forces are pushing Venezuelans to rely increasingly on credit cards amid the chaos: runaway inflation and soaring crime.


People are racing to spend their money as fast as they can, trying to keep ahead of consumer price increases that Bank of America Corp. estimates could almost reach 200 percent this year. Yet because that inflation surge has decimated the value of Venezuela’s money, shopping with cash would require carrying around a brick-sized wad of 100-bolivar bills -- not a great idea in a country with the world’s second-highest murder rate.

“We’re enlarging our participation into the consumption of families, displacing cash, even though those families might be consuming the same or even less,” Gilberto Caldart, head of Latin America for MasterCard, the world’s second-biggest payments network, said in an interview in his Miami office. “That’s the paradox.”

While reluctant to delve into specifics, Caldart said that the company’s Venezuela business is growing in line with the rest of its Latin America operations, an amazing statement given the depths of the country’s recession. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 7 percent economic contraction in the oil-producing nation this year following a 4 percent decline in 2014.

Ford, Clorox
The Purchase, New York-based company does, of course, still face the problem of getting profits out of a country that tightly controls its dwindling supply of dollars through a maze of foreign-exchange restrictions. Those controls have driven out other multinationals: Air Canada has stopped flying to the South American nation; consumer-products giant Clorox Co. pulled out too; and Ford Motor Co. wrote down the value of its local business to zero.

MasterCard has an advantage there too, though. Caldart said the company collects dollars, not bolivars, for some of the fees it charges banks on each credit-card transaction. Mateo Lleras, a spokesman for MasterCard, declined to provide a specific revenue breakdown. American Express Co., one of MasterCard’s main competitors in the country along with Visa Inc., also collects fees in dollars, according to Marina Norville, a spokeswoman for the company.

The value of MasterCard’s bolivars trapped in the country is plummeting quickly. Since President Nicolas Maduro, the successor to the late Hugo Chavez, unveiled a new foreign-exchange market in February to give Venezuelans more access to hard currency, the bolivar has sunk 74 percent against the dollar.

Unusual Hedge
MasterCard recently tried an unconventional hedge to protect the value of those bolivars. It took out a bank loan in local currency and then used the cash to buy property, whose value is typically set in dollars in Venezuela.

“What happens when you have a devaluation of that currency, of the bolivar, is you’re actually having to devalue that monetary asset, the loan, and that results in a gain,” Chief Financial Officer Martina Hund-Mejean told analysts on an April 29 conference call.

:ohhh:


Hedging strategies such as these may become even more important if the company’s dollar revenues disappear. Last month the government, which has been squeezed by the plunge in oil prices, banned private banks from processing dollar travel allowances for Venezuelans going abroad. That eliminated the banks’ foreign currency revenue stream and fueled speculation that they will now seek to start paying bolivars, rather than dollars, for credit-card transaction fees.

In the meantime, business remains good for MasterCard. “The more people spend, the more revenue we generate,” Caldart said. “Venezuela is still a tremendous opportunity.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nflation-mastercard-s-business-is-doing-great

jesus...
 
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CHL

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If inflation veered above 3% it would be too high here....:dahell:
 

Domingo Halliburton

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I was going to say aren't you giving out a loan then getting paid back in a more worthless currency? but I guess they're hedging with dollars.


Not that this would happen but if Venezuela were smart they would just drop the Bolivar and use USD. Or just use the Yuan since they hate the US and China likes to invest in shyt holes.
 

humble forever

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Not that this would happen but if Venezuela were smart they would just drop the Bolivar and use USD. Or just use the Yuan since they hate the US and China likes to invest in shyt holes.


Yeah, I was going to say they should just start using the USD. But their government has too much animosity towards us
 

NSSVO

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Lol we should all pitch in and buy a place out there and wait it out.
 

badhat

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Not that this would happen but if Venezuela were smart they would just drop the Bolivar and use USD. Or just use the Yuan since they hate the US and China likes to invest in shyt holes.

Argentina thought this was the plan in the late 80s-early 90s too.
 

hashmander

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damn i wish i had 1.9m or could get approved for 1.9m because that's a good deal. this crisis won't last for ever and a hotel in the caribbean is still a hotel in the caribbean.
 

Domingo Halliburton

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Venezuela Running ‘On Fumes’ As Bolivar Weakens


Even though Venezuela tapped the International Monetary Fund in recent weeks to keep itself afloat, shoring up its currency is another matter.

BN-IL305_maduro_D_20150515151102.jpg

Reuters
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The low price of oil has crushed the energy exporter’s budget. Russ Dallen, who contributes to a newsletter for investors, and writes about Latin America, writes today that “Venezuela’s situation continues to unravel at increasing speed as the bolivar tumbled 30% over just the last week, while the country’s international reserves simultaneously hit a new 12-year low, closing at $17.5 billion.” He says the weak currency and decline in reserves means the country is “essentially running on fumes.” He writes:

“Venezuela’s reserves have now fallen 21% since the beginning of the year, but more importantly $6.7 billion from their high just 2 months ago – a high that not only included $2.8 billion from mortgaging Citgo, $1.9 billion from the selling of $4 billion of oil receivables from the Dominican Republic, and the transfer of previously unreported China Fonden funds into the reserves.”

By tapping roughly $385 million in “Special Drawing Rights” (SDR) from the International Monetary Fund in recent weeks, for the first time in years, Venezuela has more financial liquidity and may have reduced its 2015 debt default risk. See our recent post on the subject: ”Venezuela Default Still Possible Despite IMF Money, Moody’s Says.”

Dallen et al explain SDRs in their weekly newsletter.

“The IMF created SDRs as an international reserve asset in 1969 to supplement all members’ reserves. Members are allowed to count the SDRs as part of their reserves and Venezuela is able to borrow those assets at an extremely favorable rate of interest (currently 0.05%, which frankly is much better than the over 30% that Venezuela is paying on some of its bonds). In 2009 as countries around the world were reeling from the worldwide economic crisis, the IMF decided to provide member nations a total of $250 billion in SDRs to shore up international liquidity. At that time, the IMF gave Venezuela 2.543 billion SDRs, which works out to about $3.578 billion in U.S. dollars (The SDR value floats against a basket of the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound, with one U.S. dollar currently worth 0.710769 SDR). Thus, the 276.6 million in SDR chips that Venezuela borrowed last month is worth approximately $385 million.”

Also see our September 2014 post, “Will Venezuela Default? Ask Hedge Funds” and this recent post: “Cheap Oil & Emerging Markets: India, Turkey Win; Venezuela Most At Risk.“

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Diosdado Cabello, president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, is among those being investigated by the United States on drug trafficking allegations. See the WSJ story, “Venezuelan Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub.”


lol at the last 2 sentences.
 
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