Establishment Dems are getting themselves into era-defining trouble

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How can you predict that the White people will double-down on Whiteness but then assume that the Latino people will join them? Won't the doubling down on Whiteness push a fair number of those assimilated Latinos away? In fact, don't Latinos tend to become more liberal as them assimilate, not less so? Even the most conservative immigrant communities, like Vietnamese voters and Cuban voters, are actually becoming less and less conservative over time. Hillary Clinton won the Cuban vote in 2016, the first time a Democrat had won that demographic. As Republicans double down on Trump's overt racism it's only going to get worse for them there.
:dahell: Where’d you see this?! Cubans are some of the biggest republicans out there. New Jersey Cubans are usually Dem but Florida Cubans are majority GOP and they’re loud about it too!
 

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Get out your feelings and actually pay attention to what has been said and you see I've addressed this position early one.

  • Yes AOC is the norm with voters in her age blocc that make up around of possible 31% of voters
    • ~12 percent of actual dem voters in 2014
    • ~21 percent of actual dem voters in 2018
  • The majority of active voters identify themself to the Right of AOC/Bernie
    • For example baby boomers and millenials both make up ~31% of the voting population,
    • In 2014 and 2016 baby boomers outperformed them over 2:1
    • In 2018 they outperformed them by just under double
So someone getting called out for repeatedly missing data from the OP and misrepresenting facts goes to a "get out of your feelings" ad hominem in order to try to recover. :francis:

This is like talking to a brick wall. The millenials aren't voting because they have few worthwhile candidates to vote for and don't expect their voice to be heard.

And you're talking 2014/2016/2018 numbers. Those numbers completely ignore Generation Z, which will be a significant portion of the electorate by 2024 and a dominate portion by 2038. Not to mention that a lot of the baby boomers will be dead by then. Not to mention that Generation X has been steadily shifting to the left.



If we agree with the premise of the article and easily searchable data on trends by voting age across the liberal/conservative spectrum it's clear that we can directly link the type of candidates presented and winning are directly linked to the voter turnout, not some evil scheme by the establishment to subvert the will of the people.

FT_19.05.03_GenderVoterTurnout_Voterturnoutwashigher.png



So back to my original point, the democratic establishment won't have an era defining crisis right now because the makeup is highly reflective of the types of people participating in elections.
Note that:

A. The younger people's participation rises steeply when they have more attractive candidates to vote for

B. You STILL continue to ignore every documented way that the DNC tries to rig results rather than just letting the will of the people speak. If you keep insisting it doesn't matter and has no impact, then...

then....

then...

then...

WHY DO THEY KEEP DOING IT??????
 

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:dahell: Where’d you see this?! Cubans are some of the biggest republicans out there. New Jersey Cubans are usually Dem but Florida Cubans are majority GOP and they’re loud about it too!

Cubans in Florida still slightly favored Trump (54%) but Cubans in the rest of the country favored Clinton enough that it swung it over to her overall. Younger Cubans especially don't give a shyt about the loyalty of their grandparents and don't see the Cuban embargo as the dominant issue, or in some cases even would prefer a removal of the embargo and reconnection with their roots.

Cuban American Voters Are No Longer Reliably Republican - Bold

Donald Trump Says Cuban Voters Love Him, but He's Wrong

According to Latino Decisions, for the first time in history most Cuban Americans voted for Hillary Clinton nationwide. In Florida, a thin majority (54 percent) voted for Donald Trump. This continues a long decline in Republican support that we’ve seen in recent history.

People who think Latino voting patterns trend towards Republicans over time are just making shyt up. Asian voters trend hard away from Republicans too. At this point the right is banking almost entirely on older White voters, middle-aged White men, gerrymandering, a favorable electoral college, and voter suppression.
 
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Cubans in Florida still slightly favored Trump (54%) but Cubans in the rest of the country favored Clinton enough that it swung it over to her overall. Younger Cubans especially don't give a shyt about the loyalty of their grandparents and don't see the Cuban embargo as the dominant issue, or in some cases even would prefer a removal of the embargo and reconnection with their roots.

Cuban American Voters Are No Longer Reliably Republican - Bold

Ultra Music Festival Terminates Agreement With Miami, Will Move Elsewhere in South Florida



People who think Latino voting patterns trend towards Republicans over time are just making shyt up. Asian voters trend hard away from Republicans too. At this point the right is banking almost entirely on older White voters, middle-aged White men, gerrymandering, a favorable electoral college, and voter suppression.
Well that’s nice to know:ehh:

Why’d you post that ultra article btw? I remember people in Miami have been complaining about it for a couple of years when it’s been an ultimate cash cow every time it comes to town and now they’re giving it the boot. Miami politicians are fukkin stupid:snoop:
 
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Well that’s nice to know:ehh:

Why’d you post that ultra article btw? I remember people down in Miami have been complaining about it for a couple of years when that’s been an ultimate cash cow every time if come to town and now they’re giving it the boot. Miami politicians are fukkin stupid:snoop:

Must have been an inadvertent click in-between when I confirmed the quote and when I copy-pasted the link. I've fixed it now.
 

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So someone getting called out for repeatedly missing data from the OP and misrepresenting facts goes to a "get out of your feelings" ad hominem in order to try to recover. :francis:

This is like talking to a brick wall. The millenials aren't voting because they have few worthwhile candidates to vote for and don't expect their voice to be heard.

And you're talking 2014/2016/2018 numbers. Those numbers completely ignore Generation Z, which will be a significant portion of the electorate by 2024 and a dominate portion by 2038. Not to mention that a lot of the baby boomers will be dead by then. Not to mention that Generation X has been steadily shifting to the left.

Largely because it's hypothetical. There really hasn't been enough elections to determine what the trends will be for younger voters. Most polls just over 5+ consecutive elections to determine if these people are even considered consistent voters.

TLDR, you're making a huge assumption based on the long term trends of voters on a small sample size.

You're attempting to frame it as a truth that because x subset of voters shifted then that trend will either continue indefinitely or will apply to other groups. for example, saying what happens with gen X will apply to all millenials. That's a leap I'm not willing to make and I'm not being dishonest by refusing to do so.

A. The younger people's participation rises steeply when they have more attractive candidates to vote for

Possibly, but that doesn't mean those more attractive candidates are necessarily further left of the establishment and that's the crux of our argument and the premise of the article. :yeshrug:

B. You STILL continue to ignore every documented way that the DNC tries to rig results rather than just letting the will of the people speak. If you keep insisting it doesn't matter and has no impact, then...
Dem voter turnout is higher than republican voter turnout during the same sample. Again leading me to refuse to accept the notion that the DNC is actually having the alleged affects (intended or otherwise).

Side note, I've look at a variety of reasons why people don't vote and it's a mixed bag. Some say they don't know when elections are happening. Some because they lost the right or didn't know they it could be restored. Some because of the rules put in place making voters ineligible or physically impossible. Strikingly, location was one of the biggest factors. Another being they don't feel voting will change anything. And some feeling that the people at the top are out of touch as well.

WHY DO THEY KEEP DOING IT??????

Turnout is higher than it was 20 years ago? :manny:
 
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