Playoffs: Scouting Pelicans-Warriors
It was a historic season for both clubs. For the Warriors, a franchise-record 67 wins made them just the 10th team in NBA history to post that many victories (seven of the previous nine teams to hit that mark have gone on to capture the championship). For New Orleans, 45 wins was the fourth-highest win total in franchise history, and this is the team's first playoff berth since Chris Paul and David West called Louisiana home. While the Pelicans spent most of the last half of the season fighting for their playoff lives, the Warriors faced the challenge of remaining sharp and focused after locking up the No. 1 overall seed weeks ago. A recent meeting between the two teams carries some drama into this series, as Draymond Green's off-hand remark that the game was "a scrimmage" has turned into a rallying point for the Pelicans. Well, scrimmages, preseason and regular-season bouts are all finished, and the real thing begins on Saturday.
QUESTION 1: What chance do the Pelicans have at slowing down Stephen Curry?
Elhassan: One of the biggest developments for the Warriors this season has been the liberation of their offense, freeing Curry from the burden of having to directly create offense for his team on almost every possession. If they had faced the Warriors of a year ago, the Pelicans would have been able to throw a lanky defender like Jrue Holiday on to Curry and harassed him with traps and double-teams, forcing him to shoot or pass over length. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this isn't the 2013-14 Warriors, and Golden State has done a terrific job of mixing it up, allowing Curry to roam off ball, curling off screens and defeating overzealous defenders with well-timed backdoor cuts. It's hard enough to guard a man whose range is measured in zip codes, not feet, but it's even harder when he's a willing passer. If the defense does succeed in slowing him down, Curry will find a way to make them pay for their decision via ball movement.
Doolittle: Not much, you'd think. Curry is more or less impermeable to defenders as it is, but the Pelicans don't have the kind of perimeter stopper who can disrupt him consistently. Holiday would be the best option, and even though he's looked decent in three games since coming back from his leg injury, it's a stretch to say he's in Curry-stopping mode. Here's a nugget from NBA.com/stats tracking data: Curry shot just 31.4 percent on 3s against the Pelicans when New Orleans left him wide open, which happened on about 22 percent of his shots. So don't guard him and focus on Klay Thompson. It's so simple, it's brilliant.
QUESTION 2: Anthony Davis was unstoppable this season. Should the Warriors try to shut him down or focus on suffocating his supporting cast?
Elhassan: Davis' length and fluidity can potentially give Golden State a lot of issues: He's too quick for the likes of Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights and far too big for small-ball players like Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes to effectively contest. Davis' main weakness, ironically, is his teammates; he's reliant on them to deliver him the rock, and that's exactly where the Warriors' defense will likely focus, preventing the Pelicans' offense from setting up and running the desired actions to get Davis the ball. In a weird way, Golden State should shut him down by suffocating the supporting cast.
Doolittle: Davis averaged 29 points on a .627 true shooting percentage in two games against Golden State, which the Pelicans managed to split. The Warriors were playing at full strength in the game New Orleans won, too. Still, I don't know that the Warriors need to alter their base defensive schemes all that much. They pressure and double-team a lot anyway, and in Bogut and Green, Steve Kerr can throw two very good and very different looks at Davis depending on where the Pelicans are using him on the court. The Warriors have defended everybody, and their defense feeds their offense to such an extent that I don't think you alter that formula for any opponent, even one as good as Davis. As we saw with Russell Westbrook, one player's massive production translates only so much at the team level.
QUESTION 3: Can New Orleans steal a game on the road at the toughest place to play (in terms of road settings) in the NBA?
Elhassan: I can regale you with tales of the Warriors' home record, their average scoring margin and even the characteristics of the losses they succumbed to. This is one of the rare moments when analysis flies out the door! The uproar over "Scrimmage-gate," I think, will have sharpened Golden State's resolve to send a message to the upstart Pelicans. There will be no home-court losses in this series.
Doolittle: Golden State went 2-0 at home against New Orleans this season and won by an average of 21.5 points, so it'll be a tall order for the Pelicans to win at Oracle Arena. At 17-24, the Pelicans had the worst road record of all the playoff teams in the West. However, I'll say this: If the Pelicans steal a road game, it'll be the first game. The Warriors are entering the postseason with a level of expectation unlike anything they've ever faced, and as a team that relies so much on its shooting, you never know what role nerves can play. The Pelicans have been in playoff mode for weeks now and have to be riding high after beating a full-strength Spurs team just to get into this series.
Predictions
Elhassan: I struggle to find the ray of light that represents a New Orleans victory anywhere. Chalk this one up to a solid learning experience for Davis, as it won't be long before we're talking about him sweeping past a bottom feeder. Prediction: Warriors in 4.
Doolittle: Steve Kerr will be pushing his crew to not mess around, because he knows a major test could await in the next round (likely versus Memphis). The Pelicans are on the rise, but on the success curve, they are a good two years behind the Warriors. This is the moment Golden State has been building up to. Of course, the last team to win 67 games was the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks -- who lost to Golden State in the first round. Chances are, Kerr will be giving his team that particular history lesson. Prediction: Warriors in 4.
Don't be surprised if...
Elhassan: We see Holiday-on-Holiday action! Jrue's older brother, Justin, plays for the Warriors, although he's received little playing time, much of it has come during rotation minutes with the starters. If Jrue starts getting loose, what better antidote is there than having older brother put the kibosh on him?
Doolittle: Chances are we won't be seeing much, if any, of Golden State's David Lee. Not only have the Warriors soared without him, but he's entering the playoffs with a balky back. Kerr has managed his starter's minutes carefully all season, but that's in preparation for the playoffs. As the rotations tighten -- and you look at Golden State's depth chart -- Lee looks like the odd man out.
BPI projection
Ninety-three percent chance Warriors win series. Most likely series outcome is Warriors in 5.
It was a historic season for both clubs. For the Warriors, a franchise-record 67 wins made them just the 10th team in NBA history to post that many victories (seven of the previous nine teams to hit that mark have gone on to capture the championship). For New Orleans, 45 wins was the fourth-highest win total in franchise history, and this is the team's first playoff berth since Chris Paul and David West called Louisiana home. While the Pelicans spent most of the last half of the season fighting for their playoff lives, the Warriors faced the challenge of remaining sharp and focused after locking up the No. 1 overall seed weeks ago. A recent meeting between the two teams carries some drama into this series, as Draymond Green's off-hand remark that the game was "a scrimmage" has turned into a rallying point for the Pelicans. Well, scrimmages, preseason and regular-season bouts are all finished, and the real thing begins on Saturday.
QUESTION 1: What chance do the Pelicans have at slowing down Stephen Curry?
Elhassan: One of the biggest developments for the Warriors this season has been the liberation of their offense, freeing Curry from the burden of having to directly create offense for his team on almost every possession. If they had faced the Warriors of a year ago, the Pelicans would have been able to throw a lanky defender like Jrue Holiday on to Curry and harassed him with traps and double-teams, forcing him to shoot or pass over length. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this isn't the 2013-14 Warriors, and Golden State has done a terrific job of mixing it up, allowing Curry to roam off ball, curling off screens and defeating overzealous defenders with well-timed backdoor cuts. It's hard enough to guard a man whose range is measured in zip codes, not feet, but it's even harder when he's a willing passer. If the defense does succeed in slowing him down, Curry will find a way to make them pay for their decision via ball movement.
Doolittle: Not much, you'd think. Curry is more or less impermeable to defenders as it is, but the Pelicans don't have the kind of perimeter stopper who can disrupt him consistently. Holiday would be the best option, and even though he's looked decent in three games since coming back from his leg injury, it's a stretch to say he's in Curry-stopping mode. Here's a nugget from NBA.com/stats tracking data: Curry shot just 31.4 percent on 3s against the Pelicans when New Orleans left him wide open, which happened on about 22 percent of his shots. So don't guard him and focus on Klay Thompson. It's so simple, it's brilliant.
QUESTION 2: Anthony Davis was unstoppable this season. Should the Warriors try to shut him down or focus on suffocating his supporting cast?
Elhassan: Davis' length and fluidity can potentially give Golden State a lot of issues: He's too quick for the likes of Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights and far too big for small-ball players like Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes to effectively contest. Davis' main weakness, ironically, is his teammates; he's reliant on them to deliver him the rock, and that's exactly where the Warriors' defense will likely focus, preventing the Pelicans' offense from setting up and running the desired actions to get Davis the ball. In a weird way, Golden State should shut him down by suffocating the supporting cast.
Doolittle: Davis averaged 29 points on a .627 true shooting percentage in two games against Golden State, which the Pelicans managed to split. The Warriors were playing at full strength in the game New Orleans won, too. Still, I don't know that the Warriors need to alter their base defensive schemes all that much. They pressure and double-team a lot anyway, and in Bogut and Green, Steve Kerr can throw two very good and very different looks at Davis depending on where the Pelicans are using him on the court. The Warriors have defended everybody, and their defense feeds their offense to such an extent that I don't think you alter that formula for any opponent, even one as good as Davis. As we saw with Russell Westbrook, one player's massive production translates only so much at the team level.
QUESTION 3: Can New Orleans steal a game on the road at the toughest place to play (in terms of road settings) in the NBA?
Elhassan: I can regale you with tales of the Warriors' home record, their average scoring margin and even the characteristics of the losses they succumbed to. This is one of the rare moments when analysis flies out the door! The uproar over "Scrimmage-gate," I think, will have sharpened Golden State's resolve to send a message to the upstart Pelicans. There will be no home-court losses in this series.
Doolittle: Golden State went 2-0 at home against New Orleans this season and won by an average of 21.5 points, so it'll be a tall order for the Pelicans to win at Oracle Arena. At 17-24, the Pelicans had the worst road record of all the playoff teams in the West. However, I'll say this: If the Pelicans steal a road game, it'll be the first game. The Warriors are entering the postseason with a level of expectation unlike anything they've ever faced, and as a team that relies so much on its shooting, you never know what role nerves can play. The Pelicans have been in playoff mode for weeks now and have to be riding high after beating a full-strength Spurs team just to get into this series.
Predictions
Elhassan: I struggle to find the ray of light that represents a New Orleans victory anywhere. Chalk this one up to a solid learning experience for Davis, as it won't be long before we're talking about him sweeping past a bottom feeder. Prediction: Warriors in 4.
Doolittle: Steve Kerr will be pushing his crew to not mess around, because he knows a major test could await in the next round (likely versus Memphis). The Pelicans are on the rise, but on the success curve, they are a good two years behind the Warriors. This is the moment Golden State has been building up to. Of course, the last team to win 67 games was the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks -- who lost to Golden State in the first round. Chances are, Kerr will be giving his team that particular history lesson. Prediction: Warriors in 4.
Don't be surprised if...
Elhassan: We see Holiday-on-Holiday action! Jrue's older brother, Justin, plays for the Warriors, although he's received little playing time, much of it has come during rotation minutes with the starters. If Jrue starts getting loose, what better antidote is there than having older brother put the kibosh on him?
Doolittle: Chances are we won't be seeing much, if any, of Golden State's David Lee. Not only have the Warriors soared without him, but he's entering the playoffs with a balky back. Kerr has managed his starter's minutes carefully all season, but that's in preparation for the playoffs. As the rotations tighten -- and you look at Golden State's depth chart -- Lee looks like the odd man out.
BPI projection
Ninety-three percent chance Warriors win series. Most likely series outcome is Warriors in 5.
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