only thing Drummond need to be at the end of rite now is the fukking free throw line
2016-2017 NBA Free Agency/Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Houston911
- Start date
only thing Drummond need to be at the end of rite now is the fukking free throw line
That's my socially awkward, unwilling to shoot underhanded freethrows and would rather shoot 25%, all star center 
Projected 2016-17 records and standings for every NBA team
How many games will the Golden State Warriors win after adding Kevin Durant to the core of a team that went 73-9 last season? Which teams might jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and who might they replace?
To help answer these questions, here's an early look at 2016-17 NBA projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
RPM was developed by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi to estimate a player's on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors. When used along with playing time projections, it's proved to be a very accurate predictive tool overall.
Last season, these projections correctly forecast that the Portland Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, the Boston Celtics would maintain their second-half success from the year before and the Milwaukee Bucks would fall out of the playoffs. (They also missed on other teams, including the Toronto Raptors emerging as a top threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Houston Rockets limping along near .500.) Two years ago, RPM foresaw the rise of the Golden State Warriors.
Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.
Most veteran players are rated using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM, adjusted for the typical aging curve. Newcomers to the league and players who played too little for an RPM rating are rated using their projected offensive and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, which incorporates translated performance in the NCAA and professional leagues besides the NBA.
Let's take a look at the results.
Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 66.8 (Summer Forecast: 67-15)
Within the context of the conservative nature of win projections, which tend to be regressed heavily to the mean, a 67-win projection is remarkable. The Warriors' projection is two wins higher than the next best in the seven years I've gone back to do projections using this method: 64.9 for the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who actually won just 58 games because of the time it took their version of the Big Three to build chemistry on the court.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 54.5 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)
It's a huge step downward to second place in the West. With Tim Duncan's retirement and the aging of other core players, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay with Golden State in the regular season as they did last season. But RPM still has them comfortably second in the West.
3. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 47.6 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
This might seem like a crazy leap for a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, but remember: The Jazz actually had the fifth-best point differential in the West (plus-1.8 PPG). Ordinarily, that would translate into 46 wins, and that was despite injuries (including Dante Exum missing the entire season) and before Utah loaded up with veterans this offseason. The Jazz should be considered the favorites to win the Northwest Division.
4. L.A. Clippers
Projected wins: 46.3 (Summer Forecast: 52-30)
Given the Clippers won 53 games last year without Blake Griffin for much of the season, a seven-win drop would be a surprise. But RPM sees several key players on the wrong side of the aging curve.
5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 45.8 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)
RPM projects the Rockets to be a top-five offense next year, but they'll still struggle to reach 45 wins if their defense is worse than an optimistic projection of 16th in the league.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 45.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)
Even without Durant, RPM forecasts the Thunder in the mix for home-court advantage in the West thanks to star point guard Russell Westbrook and a deep cast of young role players.
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 44.5 (Summer Forecast: 46-36)
After reaching the second round of the playoffs and adding Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this offseason, the Blazers hope to take the next step in their development. RPM sees them as about the same team as 2015-16, when they won 44 games but finished fifth in a weaker West.
8. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 40.4 (Summer Forecast: 34-48)
Quietly, the Nuggets have assembled an intriguing group of young talent (led by RPM favorite Nikola Jokic, projected for plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions) with a few veterans in tow. Even with Danilo Gallinari projected for just 50 games, internal development could be enough to push Denver into surprising playoff contention.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 39.4 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)
Yes, the Grizzlies strengthened their starting lineup by signing Chandler Parsons, but their bench is incredibly thin and several starters (including Parsons) are major injury risks. Gulp.
10. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 37.7 (Summer Forecast: 30-52)
The Kings have one of the biggest discrepancies of any team between their projection in ESPN's summer forecast (30 wins, 13th in the West) and by RPM, which sees Sacramento deep in average talent around DeMarcus Cousins.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 37.1 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)
Remember, RPM projections don't factor in coaching, and the arrival of Tom Thibodeau makes the Timberwolves overwhelmingly likely to outperform their projected ranking of 27th in defensive rating.
12. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 37.0 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)
New Orleans is deeper after shopping for midtier free agents this summer, but RPM projects just three players on the roster to be better than league average: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and newcomer Solomon Hill.
13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 34.3 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
Might this be the year that coach Rick Carlisle, veteran big man Dirk Nowitzki and a cast of newcomers can't get the Mavericks to the playoffs? RPM says yes, since swapping Parsons (plus-1.3) for Harrison Barnes (minus-0.7) grades as a major downgrade.
14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 29.2 (Summer Forecast: 26-56)
The Suns figure to be a bit more competitive with the return of RPM favorite Eric Bledsoe (plus-2.2) but are still too young to compete in the West.
15. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 24.3 (Summer Forecast: 25-57)
Despite their offseason additions of No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram and veterans Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, RPM has the Lakers with the league's fewest projected wins.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 52.1 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)
While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.
2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)
Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.
3. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 48.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)
After getting career years from guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.
4. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 47.5 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.
5. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 41.4 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)
There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.
6. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 41.0 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)
Though the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).
7. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 40.9 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)
The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.
8. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 38.9 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
By virtue of having one of the East's top players in Paul George and a promising youngster in Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of George Hill (plus-0.8) for Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.
9. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 38.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)
RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.
10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 38.3 (Summer Forecast: 36-46)
Even with Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.
11. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 37.8 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.
12. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 36.2 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)
The Magic spent big on free agents D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.
13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 34.7 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 28.8 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)
A full season from second-year wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 24.5 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)
Even with conservative projections for rookies Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 52.1 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)
While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.
2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)
Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.
3. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 48.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)
After getting career years from guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.
4. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 47.5 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.
5. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 41.4 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)
There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.
6. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 41.0 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)
Though the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).
7. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 40.9 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)
The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.
8. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 38.9 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
By virtue of having one of the East's top players in Paul George and a promising youngster in Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of George Hill (plus-0.8) for Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.
9. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 38.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)
RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.
10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 38.3 (Summer Forecast: 36-46)
Even with Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.
11. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 37.8 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.
12. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 36.2 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)
The Magic spent big on free agents D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.
13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 34.7 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 28.8 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)
A full season from second-year wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 24.5 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)
Even with conservative projections for rookies Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.
Rockets above OKC, Portland, Memphis and Minnesota.......let the outrage and hate begin
Flex Grossman
Funky
First place I've seen that actually projects Denver in the playoffs. 8 seed isn't that likely but definitely possible if some guys make jumps that they could easily make. But
at Memphis finishing below them with all that money they spent
The only team that's giving the Cavs a fight might be Indy, but Detroit proved to me that #MatchupIssues doesn't always play out the way it should. 
Donald Trumps Twitter
Divine Infinite Commander King
RPM is a bunch of bullshyt
Reid2Achieve
Superstar
So how are we feeling about Mario Hezonja? Didn't get many minutes in his rookie season, and he only had a few good games in the Olympics. Seems like he only gets good PT when his outside shot is falling. And I struggle to see how he averages more than 20 minutes per game behind Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green, and Evan Fournier on a team desperate to make playoffs.
In what seems to be a loaded draft class, Hezonja looking a little funny in the light (taken with the 5th pick).
In what seems to be a loaded draft class, Hezonja looking a little funny in the light (taken with the 5th pick).
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tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
The hype is real@ Utah being #3 in the West on that list...
tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
He'll be fine. Orlando is clusterfukk city with all the moves they made but he should get more time under Vogel
Reid2Achieve
Superstar
Yeah I don't know what Orlando is doing, but the only opportunity for minutes for Hezonja are behind Fournier and Aaron Gordon. And that's with Meeks and possibly Jeff Green stealing some.
He has got to show more of his game besides being a shooter.
3rd Koast Kang
Superstar
Check out @nballaccess's Tweet:
Fact that harden didnt make not one all nba team is still bullshyt.
Fact that harden didnt make not one all nba team is still bullshyt.
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