Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 52.1 (Summer Forecast:
57-25)
While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of
Kyrie Irving's defense and considers
Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes
J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.
2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.8 (Summer Forecast:
51-31)
Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of
Al Horford.
3. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 48.8 (Summer Forecast:
51-31)
After getting career years from guards
DeMar DeRozan and
Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.
4. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 47.5 (Summer Forecast:
45-37)
While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.
5. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 41.4 (Summer Forecast:
41-41)
There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.
6. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 41.0 (Summer Forecast:
43-39)
Though the return of
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of
Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and
Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).
7. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 40.9 (Summer Forecast:
39-43)
The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and
Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.
8. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 38.9 (Summer Forecast:
45-37)
By virtue of having one of the East's top players in
Paul George and a promising youngster in
Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of
George Hill (plus-0.8) for
Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.
9. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 38.6 (Summer Forecast:
44-38)
RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.
10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 38.3 (Summer Forecast:
36-46)
Even with
Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng,
Joe Johnson and
Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.
11. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 37.8 (Summer Forecast:
40-42)
RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and
Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.
12. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 36.2 (Summer Forecast:
35-47)
The Magic spent big on free agents
D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and
Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.
13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 34.7 (Summer Forecast:
40-42)
The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates
Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 28.8 (Summer Forecast:
20-62)
A full season from second-year wing
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with
Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 24.5 (Summer Forecast:
20-62)
Even with conservative projections for rookies
Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and
Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.
