2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[Pressure]

Except Bernie progressives are the reason we took the house. The real issue is like you said, young people don't vote consistently.

Young people actually had historic turnout in 2018.

Still progressives did not make the gains you're positing they would.

The fact is there are a lot of older people who just aren't as far left and the results reflect that.

So until they all die and people don't become more conservative as they age you're pretty much fukked.

 

[StatUS]

Except Bernie progressives are the reason we took the house. The real issue is like you said, young people don't vote consistently.

Younger people outvoted boomers in 2018. It's trending up.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

 

[Pressure]

Pete got the machine behind him!

Spoiler

people wasting money they could be paying their employees or donating to a good cause.

 

[acri1]

The DNC gets ultimate say who the nominee is. There are 727 super delegates so that they can override the nominee in a very close primary, unless it is a landslide victory for one of the candidates which is rarely the case

I agree, if the DNC overrode the nominee that would be some bullshyt.

But that's not what happened. I'm NOT a fan of Hillary but she got the most votes. It would be more productive for progressives to try to appeal to those voters than to blame it on DNC conspiracies that Republicans will co-opt for their own purposes.

Except Bernie progressives are the reason we took the house. The real issue is like you said, young people don't vote consistently.

I completely agree with this which is why I said Dem voters are fickle.

 

[storyteller]

Yang riding for M4A...in spirit only...I still think he's a weasel though I do like his drug policy position.

 

[PoorAndDangerous]

Young people actually had historic turnout in 2018.

Still progressives did not make the gains you're positing they would.

The fact is there are a lot of older people who just aren't as far left and the results reflect that.

So until they all die and people don't become more conservative as they age you're pretty much fukked.

I just looked up the numbers and you all were right about moderate Dems winning most. I still feel like the young progressive voter energy is what made the difference but I don't really have numbers to back that up. Although as you said young people voted in historic numbers at that time. Also I guess candidates still have to have some appeal to moderate Republicans to flip those districts so they're sort of limited in that sense too.

 

[storyteller]

It is? Because more establishment Dems won seats than progressive Dems, afaik.

2018 was a referendum on Trump. According to Rachel Bitcofer, where Dems played it safe and tried not to offense Republicans (aka Trump supporters), they underperformed their numbers. That doesn't mean they lost, but they depressed turnout and made it closer than it had to be. This holds true in the opposite direction too. Most progressives had no qualms calling out Trump and that meant they outperformed their projected numbers even if they didn't win their seats (also, the establishment offering no support for some of these progressives that lost by narrow margins may be the reason progressives didn't pick up more seats).

The thing is, sans negative partisanship (voting against something or someone such as Trump); you've got two strategies that can work.

1. Get out to vote programs. Basically increase turnout by making it easier for your constituents to get to and from polling places; making sure they know and are prepared for elections; and counteracting efforts to depress turnout (Bitcofer mentioned that efforts to bring more Latin voters to the polls in Texas should have been happening for a while now in one of her interviews, I think Majority Report).

2. Galvanize left leaning independents who need a reason to show up (theoretically, that means give them a policy that attracts them so progressives would point to M4A which around 70% of Likely Dem voters supported in the last Morning Consult poll I saw and 55% overall in that same poll, so maybe not just likely independent Dems).

Either way, pointing to seat counting is limiting the discussion. Bitcofer got 2018 nailed down months ahead of anybody because she took a more modern approach to polling and that was one of the key aspects to how she's examined races.

Sidenote: And she's not someone I 100% agree with or anything, so take it how you want. She is pretty confident Warren will beat Biden and Bernie which I'll take though.

 

[storyteller]

I agree, if the DNC overrode the nominee that would be some bullshyt.

But that's not what happened. I'm NOT a fan of Hillary but she got the most votes. It would be more productive for progressives to try to appeal to those voters than to blame it on DNC conspiracies that Republicans will co-opt for their own purposes.

This is an oft misconstrued bit for progressives. I blame the last Michael Moore documentary. While the super delegates didn't swing the race, news reports on the ongoing primaries pretty consistently shoehorned in the Super Delegate totals which made a somewhat close race look completely out of reach. That could potentially swing voters' opinions. I'd point to Biden leading with people who prioritize electability by a big margin for potential supporting evidence of this theory. Would the difference have been enough to shake the 12 point gap in polling? I think that's doubtful but not impossible. But either way, this concept metastasized into a larger "it was totally rigged" theory when coupled with the e-mail leaks that showed signs of media bias.

 

[ceezy]

Biden would definitely beat Trump, but what changes in our country? Just trying to understand his appeal besides him being Obama's right hand man.

A return of Status Quo Politics before Trump where all the corrupt shyt just happens behind closed doors instead of in front of our faces

 

[intra vires]

In 2018 the DNC had accepted many of the terms presented by progressives.

In 2018 progressives did not do well compared to their moderate counterparts.

In 2019 Joe Biden is the leading candidate. He lacks in fundraising and he lacks in big events yet he's still outperforming the top two progressive candidates.

The country isn't as far left as some of you all would like to believe.

While the country isn't a progressive as leftists pretend it is, political outcomes, in the House and at a state level, tend to be more conservative than the electorate due to gerrymandering. Of course, there's a lot of room to play with between the current outcomes and progressivism. It's natural for people to think their views are more typical than they are. That's why some of us look at polling from credible sources [and go outside] to keep perspective.

If you want it to, please encourage your parents and grandparents to die and your peers to vote.

Your bedside manner is terrible, I hope you're not a doctor.

 

[John Reena]

Dem voters aren't fickle, the DNC are just corporate owned fukkers afraid of upsetting their owners by electing a true progressive that will actually mobilize voters. Bernie is the only candidate that is beating Trump in battleground states like Iowa

And then get destroyed completely in the south insuring Trump a 2nd term

 

[Pull Up the Roots]

This dude doesn't stand for anything.

My only hope is that he leeches support away from Biden.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[acri1]

Damn, more voters than not think all the Dems would lose to Trump, even Biden.

That sucks. If Trump does get reelected I might have to start looking at Canadian immigration laws. Only an hour away from where I stay..