2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[intra vires]

I'm not aghast. I want a progressive to win the nomination. I 100% agree that she should have been going after him from the start if that's the path she wanted to take.

Doing it now when she does not seem to have a chance works against my interests. I don't see the situation where she takes down Bernie and elevates herself to the nomination. I do see the situation where she contributes to a moderate getting the nom though.

Well that's fine but if your interests don't align with hers, then she shouldn't be your candidate. If she isn't your candidate, then it's irrelevant. Buttigieg running works against my interests, but he needn't worry about me at this juncture. He's fighting for those who support him while attempting to build a winning coalition. Likewise, she's doing the same and her supporters will support her until she ends her campaign.

It's more likely her presence is keeping Buttigieg from reaching viability than anything else (based on their base support, exit polls, and voter interviews). Buttigieg is obviously going to back Biden so if it comes down to it, the less delegates he receives the better. Warren and Biden dislike each other, so unless he cuts her a deal (he won't she doesn't have a significant number of delegates) she wouldn't tell her delegates to go to him. From a delegate prespective she's actually helping Sanders if there's a contested convention.

If Sanders fails to secure the nomination that's solely on him and his campaign. If he can't answer whatever criticisms are levied against him and they "take him down", then he was never going to win anyway.

 

[Loose]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I told y’all Lizzzzz was fugazi.

Last week ya'll was accusing her of just staying in to take his voters, so do y'all her to try to win or just go out there and be like "bernies awesome but vote for me "

 

[R. Money]

 

[Robbie3000]

Biden's senility is priced in at this point. He's never been able to talk or keep things straight. He's always exaggerated or told ducktales. I've never posted that kind of stuff because I don't think it will move anyone, I just think it's funny.

I disagree. Reasonable people are alarmed. That's why his support when from high 40s to low 20s. He might be up against Trump now, but 3 months of this nonsense and he will lose support. Biden just doesn't have it anymore and is bigger risk in the general, than any other viable candidate.

 

[Shogun]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I told y’all Lizzzzz was fugazi.

day late and a dollar short

 

[Shogun]

Last week ya'll was accusing her of just staying in to take his voters, so do y'all her to try to win or just go out there and be like "bernies awesome but vote for me "

That was literally her strategy for the vast majority of her campaign.

 

[Loose]

That was literally her strategy fro that vast majority of her campaign.

And it's an awful strategy it worked when she was pollikg above him, from day 1 she should have been pointing out the vast differences between them. Why should i vote warren when she says bernie is great?

 

[hayesc0]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I told y’all Lizzzzz was fugazi.

Yeah I don't trust her anymore should have known when she stayed quiet in 16.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

I bet she regrets towing the party line in 2015-2016 now.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

And it's an awful strategy it worked when she was pollikg above him, from day 1 she should have been pointing out the vast differences between them. Why should i vote warren when she says bernie is great?

Because she's younger and could have claimed that she has less baggage and is more electable. She shouldn't be criticizing his policies or differentiating herself there because she wanted to grab the votes who WANTED those Bernie policies.

But here's the much more interesting information. Bernie and Warren's poll numbers don't correlate to each other at all. There's absolutely zero connection between how they move except for that one moment when they were fighting over the conversation shyt, and that correlation only lasted a couple days.

But do you who Warren does correlate with? Buttigieg.

On October 13th, Warren's average was 23% and Buttigieg's was just 4%.

Over the next seven weeks until December 1, Warren dropped steadily to 14% while Buttigieg climbed steadily to 11%.

The next week on December 7-14 Warren jumped back up to 16% and Buttigieg fell back down to 9% at the exact same time.

For the next couple months both campaigns were relatively static, dropping only slightly.

Then on February 8-12, Warren dropped from 15% to 12% and Buttigieg climbed from 7% to 11% at the exact same moment.

For the next couple weeks their numbers continue to match perfectly, a slight climb by Warren that was then lost exactly matching a slight drop by Buttigieg that was then regained.


Look at the poll averages and it's eerie. There are a few other connections (Sanders and Biden move together a little. Sanders and Warren moved together a little early, Bloomberg's climb is clearly at Biden's expense). But NONE of the patterns are as clear as Buttigieg and Warren pulling back and forth on each other.


Has anyone been talking about that? Looking at it I think there's little doubt that Buttigieg completely cost Warren her place in this race. But why? Why would Warren voters shift to Buttigieg?

 

[Loose]

Because she's younger and could have claimed that she has less baggage and is more electable. She shouldn't be criticizing his policies or differentiating herself there because she wanted to grab the votes who WANTED those Bernie policies.

But here's the much more interesting information. Bernie and Warren's poll numbers don't correlate to each other at all. There's absolutely zero connection between how they move except for that one moment when they were fighting over the conversation shyt, and that correlation only lasted a couple days.

But do you who Warren does correlate with? Buttigieg.

On October 13th, Warren's average was 23% and Buttigieg's was just 4%.

Over the next seven weeks until December 1, Warren dropped steadily to 14% while Buttigieg climbed steadily to 11%.

The next week on December 7-14 Warren jumped back up to 16% and Buttigieg fell back down to 9% at the exact same time.

For the next couple months both campaigns were relatively static, dropping only slightly.

Then on February 8-12, Warren dropped from 15% to 12% and Buttigieg climbed from 7% to 11% at the exact same moment.

For the next couple weeks their numbers continue to match perfectly, a slight climb by Warren that was then lost exactly matching a slight drop by Buttigieg that was then regained.


Look at the poll averages and it's eerie. There are a few other connections (Sanders and Biden move together a little. Sanders and Warren moved together a little early, Bloomberg's climb is clearly at Biden's expense). But NONE of the patterns are as clear as Buttigieg and Warren pulling back and forth on each other.


Has anyone been talking about that? Looking at it I think there's little doubt that Buttigieg completely cost Warren her place in this race. But why? Why would Warren voters shift to Buttigieg?

Buttigieg supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire so far have been either republicans or far right moderates i don't think the correlation is there btwn the two. His climb also correlates with the fall of Joe biden i think it's a simple coincidence.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

Has anyone been talking about that? Looking at it I think there's little doubt that Buttigieg completely cost Warren her place in this race. But why? Why would Warren voters shift to Buttigieg?

Maybe what Sanders allegedly said was right?

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Dumbass Bernie Bros lying yet again






@wire28 @Th3G3ntleman @ezrathegreat @Jello Biafra @humble forever @Dameon Farrow @Piff Perkins @Pressure @johnedwarduado @Armchair Militant @panopticon @Tres Leches @ADevilYouKhow @dtownreppin214

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Buttigieg supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire so far have been either republicans or far right moderates i don't think the correlation is there btwn the two. His climb also correlates with the fall of Joe biden i think it's a simple coincidence.

Breh, look at that trend line. Those Brown and Purple lines are FAR too correlated to be some coincidence.

With smaller and less accurate state polls you have much noisier results, but still seeing some correlation there.

Iowa polls: Warren dropping out of the lead from November 1st to November 21st perfectly matches Buttigieg climbing into the lead. Biden doesn't fall during that period and Sanders only barely rises. Buttigieg's initial climb in Iowa certainly appears to have been at Biden's expense, but his last push into the lead appears to have come at Warren's expense.

New Hampshire polls: Even more matches here. Warren falls from Nov. 24-27, the same time that Buttigieg rises. December 22 to January 3 a Buttigieg rise, plateau, and fall is matched by the exact opposite from Warren. Jan 12-16 Warren falls again, plateaus, and recovers partly, the exact opposite happens to Buttigieg. Finally they were virtually tied a week before the election, then Buttigieg jumped up 8 points while Warren fell 3.

I think that's pretty strong evidence that Buttigieg didn't just pull support from Biden, he took a lane away from Warren too. Warren's coalition probably included X number of moderate voters who didn't like Biden and were looking for the best other option, and perhaps X number of democrats who were excited to vote for the most viable female candidate but then became more excited to vote for a viable gay candidate.

It's hard to look at those three charts and not come to the conclusion that Buttigieg killed Warren's crucial edge. She would have competed for the win in both Iowa and New Hampshire if it hadn't been for his rise.