Africa will own the world’s demographic future :blessed:

[Malik]

http://www.businessinsider.com/africas-population-projection-through-2100-2014-1

Africa often gets left out of the emerging markets conversation. If anything, most of the continent is still considered a frontier market, or an emerging market of the future.

While countries like China represent the most attractive growth opportunities today, Africa is arguably the most exciting opportunity for the next century.

Why?

In one word: demographics.

"In Africa, the “young continent,” projections are for the African population to exponentially grow from current levels, close to Europe, to four times the size, and approaching Asia, in the next 100 years (see Figure 3)," said Citi's Philip Watson.

"The emergence of the Africa demographic boom, with its underdeveloped infrastructure and untapped resources, suggests a period of rapid growth for those African economies that are increasingly well-managed," he added.

And the anecdotal growth stories are incredible.

"The same is true for specific industry sectors," said Watson. "One example of this is the Telecom industry. According to a survey by the International Telecoms Union (ITU), Africa recently became the world’s fastest-growing mobile phone market. Mobile phone usage in the continent has increased at an annual rate of 65% over the past five years, which is twice the global average. Nigeria has become one of the fastest growing markets in the world for mobile communications, propelled by a young population, market liberalization and telecom-sector reforms, with an estimated 88 million mobile phones in use compared to a population size of 170 million. Are investors positioning their portfolios for these demographic changes?"

As much of the developed and developing world struggle with unfavorable demographic trends, Africa's trends point to growth.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/africas-population-projection-through-2100-2014-1#ixzz2t3AzlDnN

 

[Malik]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...emographic-future-of-the-earth-in-9-charts/#1

The United Nations Population Division, which tracks demographic data from around the world, has dramatically revised its projections for what will happen in the next 90 years. The new statistics, based on in-depth survey data from sub-Saharan Africa, tell the story of a world poised to change drastically over the next several decades. Most rich countries will shrink and age (with a couple of important exceptions), poorer countries will expand rapidly and, maybe most significant of all, Africa will see a population explosion nearly unprecedented in human history.

If these numbers turn out to be right – they're just projections and could change significantly under unforeseen circumstances – the world of 2100 will look very different than the world of today, with implications for everyone. It will be a place where today's dominant, developed economies are increasingly focused on supporting the elderly, where the least developed countries are transformed by population booms and where Africa, for better or worse, is more important than ever.

Here is the story of the next 90 years as predicted by UN demographic data and explained in nine charts. The charts are interactive; move your cursor over them to track and compare the data.

(1) The big story will be Africa

Right now, with a couple of exceptions, Africa's population density is relatively low; it's a very big continent more sparsely populated than, say, Europe or East Asia. That's changing very quickly. The continent's overall population is expected to more than quadruple over just 90 years, an astonishingly rapid growth that will make Africa more important than ever. And it's not just that there will four times the workforce, four times the resource burden, four times as many voters. The rapid growth itself will likely transform political and social dynamics within African countries and thus their relationship with the rest of the world. (More on this further down.)

Asia will continue to grow but its population growth, already slowing, is expected to peak about 50 years from now then start declining. As has happened in the West, rising economies will lead to declining birth rates. And that downturned curve could represent some problematic demographic issues; more also on this further down.

The story in those three little lines at the bottom is less promising. Europe will continue to shrink, which is worsening its economic problems. South America's population will rise until about 2050, at which point it will begin its own gradual population decline. North America is the least ambiguous success story: it will continue to grow at a slow, sustainable rate, surpassing South America's overall population around 2070.

 

[Malik]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...emographic-future-of-the-earth-in-9-charts/#1

(2) China shrinks, India plateaus; Nigeria is a very big deal

This chart shows the futures of what are, today, the world's five most populous nations. The two big stories here are China and Nigeria, the latter of which will have almost a billion people by 2100 and will be within range of surpassing China in population. Given that Nigeria is about the area of Texas, that's a truly astounding possibility.

Nigeria, currently Africa's most populous country, is poised for one of the world's most rapid population booms ever. In just 100 years, maybe two or three generations, the population is expected to increase by a mind-boggling factor of eight. The country is already troubled by corruption, poverty and religious conflict. It's difficult to imagine how a government that can barely serve its population right now will respond when the demand on resources, social services, schools and roads increases by a factor of eight. Still, if they pull it off – the country's vast oil reserves could certainly help – the rapidly growing workforce could theoretically deliver an African miracle akin to, say, China's.

Chinese leaders know their demographic crisis is coming. It's not a mystery: the country's massive working-age population is only allowed to have one child per couple, which means that when the current generation retires, there will be a rapidly growing pool of retirees just as the workforce starts to shrink. Those aging retirees will be an enormous burden on the Chinese economy, which is just beginning to slow down. As China ages and shrinks, its workforce will get smaller at precisely the moment that it needs them most. Make no mistake, China will continue to be an enormous, important and most likely very successful country, but its demographics are going to quickly shift from a big help to a major hindrance. Keep this in mind the next time someone tells you that China is about to take over the world.

As for the other three: India's rapidly growing population, which the country has somewhat harnessed but in many ways failed to serve, will finally plateau around 2065. Indonesia will grow moderately. The United States will grow as well, a bit more quickly than Indonesia but not a boom like India's. Again, that's good news for the U.S.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

why do those charts say there are just over 1,000 people in Africa?

 

[ManBearPig]

Nigeria is not that big. I doubt they will continue at that rate

 

[Malik]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...emographic-future-of-the-earth-in-9-charts/#1

(3) Africa is the next Asia, maybe

This chart shows Asian and African populations from 1950 through today and projected ahead to 2100. This isn't just a big deal because Africa will be almost as populous as Asia by 2100, after a very long time of being just a fraction of Asia's size. It's a big deal because it's a reminder that growth this rapid changes everything.

Pause for a moment to consider Asia's boom over the last 50 years – the rise of first Japan, then South Korea, now China and maybe next India – and the degree to which it's already changed the world and will continue to change it. Africa is expected to grow even more than Asia. Between 1950 and 2050, Asia's population will have grown by a factor of 3.7, almost quadrupling in just a hundred years. Africa's population, over its own century of growth from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of 5.18 – significantly faster than Asia.

In demographic terms, it seems, the Asian century could be followed by the African century. That's an amazing thing. But Asia's remarkable economic, cultural, political and social progress had to do with more than just demographics. And even that growth could end up being a curse for Africa if it doesn't have two things that have been crucial to Asian successes: good governance and careful resource management.

Right now, many African countries aren't particularly adept at either governance or resource management. If they don't improve, exploding population growth could only worsen resource competition – and we're talking here about basics like food, water and electricity – which in turn makes political instability and conflict more likely. The fact that there will be a "youth bulge" of young people makes that instability and conflict more likely.

It's a big, entirely foreseeable danger. Whether Africa is able to prepare for its coming population boom may well be one of the most important long-term challenges the world faces right now.

 

[BrothaZay]

Why should I care

 

[Malik]

(4) Africa's boom will be sub-Saharan

Digging in to the data on African population growth finds that it's mostly in the continent's sub-Saharan region. These are the five most populous African countries today (excluding Nigeria, which grows so large that it made the other chart lines unreadably small ). The growth looks even more eyebrow-raising when it becomes clear that it will mostly leave culturally distinct North Africa behind (): it's all focused in the sub-Saharan countries. South Africa also will grow more slowly.

Take a look at Tanzania, which is today one of the poorest countries in the world. As of 2000, it had 34 million people; California's population was the same that year. Today, Tanzania has about 45 million people. By 2100, its population is projected to be 276 million – almost the size of the entire United States today, and by then one of the largest countries in the world. The stories of other African countries may be similar: Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are projected to be almost as large.

Even if this demographic prediction does turn out to be accurate, we have no way of knowing what a massively populous Tanzania of 2100 would look like. If it remains as poor and troubled as it is today, it doesn't bode well: water and food resources will only get scarcer as it's divided among more and more people, as will whatever money the government makes exporting natural resources. That typically leads to instability and a higher risk of conflict. But, as in Asia, there's also a real opportunity for the future Tanzania to put its growing population to work building the economy. The question of how to get there, though, is not an easy one.

 

[GreatestLaker]

How is this a good thing?

That's more mouths to feed for a continent that's already suffering. You nikkas are so stupid.

 

[Malik]

Why should I care

Fukk out my thread Zay

Take your lame azz trolling somewhere else.

 

[Kenny West]

More practical question:

How do you invest in Africa?

And what do you invest in?

I'm willing to join the wave forreal forreal

 

[BrothaZay]

Fukk out my thread Zay

Take your lame azz trolling somewhere else.

Trolling? This thread is dumb. You're happy that Africas population is going to be close to 4 billion in the next century and you don't even know why.

 

[Inglewood]

African countries must rid itself of the massive corruption. It has to build better infrastructure, better health care, bring down inflation, control their resources. There are social problems that need to be addressed as well.

But just think, if we wasn't shipped to different countries, were would we be?

 

[Malik]

Trolling? This thread is dumb. You're happy that Africas population is going to be close to 4 billion in the next century and you don't even know why.

So you know more than people over at the Washington Post and the United Nations? They felt it worth researching, reporting and publishing but, since you say its dumb, its dumb

 

[BrothaZay]

So you know more than people over at the Washington Post and the United Nations? They felt it worth researching, reporting and publishing but, since you say its dumb, its dumb

I'm saying this thread is dumb. Why are you so happy about this? You're probably only excited because it will be more black people than any other race in the world.