All of that could plausibly still happen if Trump wins in 2024 or even DeSantis. I doubt the US would ever abandon Western Europe like that (by that I mean anything up to Germany) we make too much money off that alliance. Trump is stupid and crazy enough to back off defending Poland, Czechia and other countries solely because "it was a Clinton deal and the Clintons make terrible deals"
But yea even with Russia getting its ass kicked by American weaponry and training right now, they're still a threat to Europe. People dont realize that outside of the UK and France NATO is just America, there is no European "army" to speak of.
Germany can fight and they have the tech but their hands are tied right now until they decide to boss up again. But thats gonna take them at least 3 to 5 years to get on point like that and without Russian energy their economy is gonna flounder in the time they should be preparing their army.
America made its riches off being world police, aint no going back now we gotta defend these guys whether we like it or not, and that goes for Europe and East Asia.