Abstract
PIP:
With the sharp decline in mortality rates in developing countries in this century has come soaring growth rates, leading some to question the wisdom of pressing for stepped up mortality decline in these countries. The author asserts that such concerns are unfounded, since the ultimate effect of mortality decline on population size would be quite small. The reason for this is a relative insensitivity of the population growth rate in developing countries to changes in the death rate--by contrast, future trends in fertility and the large number of young people now reaching childbearing age represent the most important influences on growth rates. 3rd World countries now find themselves in a period of demographic transition not unlike that already experienced by more industrialized countries. The 1st movement comes as a sharp decline in mortality rates, particularly in childhood, as a result of improved health care. In response to this increased survival for children comes a gradual decline in childbearing. The unprecedented rapidity with which lower mortality levels were achieved in developing countries has led to a longer lag time for lowered fertility than was experienced in the developed countries. The 2nd, slower phase of mortality decline, which is now being experienced in many developing countries is accomplished by extending life expectancies for older individuals who presumably have already completed or almost completed their reproductive activities. It is for this reason that further increase in life expectancy from only moderate to more acceptable levels in developing countries will not be counterproductive in the effort to reduce population growth.