I disagree with this assessment. If you have the guidance to apply to MIT I’m willing to bet those kids still ended up at great universities. Since most of these universities target and get applicants from the northeast there’s a good chance these kids ended up at Pitt, UConn, Stonybrook, University Of Maryland or high level private universities like Boston university, Boston college, NYU, etc
Why are you sure they got into those schools? Many of those universities have acceptance rates down around 10% and average SAT scores approaching 1500 (some of them are higher). I can't find Black acceptance numbers for the class of 2028 for any of them, but UConn reports that their % of underrepresented minorities dropped this year.
In the past, a Black prospect with a 1400 SAT and a solid all-around application would have had a decent chance of getting into MIT. Now with the Supreme Court decision, it's not at all implausible that a student like that could end up slipping through the cracks at all the elite schools in this "race-blind" era.
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I'm older, but there have always been kids that go to HBCUs that got into elite universities. I see your point though regarding the number of slots at HBCUs, but if Black kids aren't applying to/getting admitted to these elite universities and deciding to go to HBCUs, they're going to get into these HBCUs and the kids that might've been borderline admissions at these schools would probably not get in. For example, an organization I work with was doing a scholarship drive, and there was a young man w a 4.5 GPA, a transcript of AP/advanced classes and extracurriculars. I don't recall standardized test scores. Either way, he decided to go to Howard. I'm sure he could've gotten into another school and for the record, I'm not sure of admissions requirements for these elite schools.

